101 replies to this topic

[RobinKimpton]

Robin Kimpton

On

Election Issues

Over the course of the campaign, I have been hearing time and time again, “not the Dean Team”. The Electorate is looking for a change. The Electorate is seeking real and meaningful change to Victoria’s economic fortune.

There is concern and discussion about affordable housing.

There is still angst about the Bay Street Bridge.

There is considerable discussion regarding proposals for a Light Rapid Transit System.

As well issue of sewage treatment has been discussed with strong factions on both sides of the issue.

There have been discussions of amalgamation whether to and, if so, how to.

There has been a great deal of discussion about the homelessness problem and Dean Teams purchase of the two Travellers properties for $6 million dollars.

In summary, the issue of homelessness has shifted from its priority position to concern about Victoria’s economy. This is not to say the homeless issue is not there because it is and the general consensus is that it is still growing. However, the Dean Team has focused on the problem or issues surrounding it to such an extent that issues of business have taken a back burner over the last three years. The Electorate is waking up and saying hey wait a minute, we are paying the bills here and we are suffering. I completely agree it is time to re focus on the businesses of this town; the rest will fall into line. If you read my blog on Homelessness or spoke with me at the All Candidates meeting, you will see that I am surprised that the Electorate has not stepped up by now. Each Welfare Wednesday we flush hundreds of thousands of dollars into the system. We wallow around in it for a few days and hunker down for the rest of the month until we can do it all over again. I heard from the Electorate that they are concerned about the lack of progress in turning the problem around. Again, if you read my blog or spoke with me, you will remember I am suggesting taking “baby steps” toward an incentive based system. The current system takes away the individuals self respect and initiative. In summary, the Electorate is focusing on improving the circumstances of business while taking steps to actually solving the homeless problem.

As set out above, there are several infrastructural projects at play in the Election: the Blue Bridge, Light Rapid Transit, Sewage Treatment. Affordable housing etc. These must be measured in the reflection of a City Hall and City economy which is in trouble financially. On the campaign trail, I never heard people making this link but in my opinion, the first order of the day will be to get the finances of City in order and, secondly, to set the priorities for the City. Anyone of these projects above is significant against the City’s capacity. This will then immediately bring into focus the issue of amalgamation. I am for amalgamation. If you re call I wrote strongly about this in a previous blog. The simple reality is that Victoria or any of the surrounding municipalities are too small for these projects. There will be strength in numbers. This is beside the benefits of eliminating the cost duplication of each fiefdom. Finally, there is the benefit of speaking with one voice to senior levels of government and the purchasing power of one large municipality.

In summary, the Electorate is coming out firm – “not the Dean Team”. It is seeking a business candidate with leadership. Given the infrastructure projects facing Victoria and the region, the issue of amalgamation will arise time and time again. I am pro amalgamation. I will bring a strong education and extensive business experience to the issues. I will lead Council when elected in dealing with priorities, the budget and the financings while bringing a compassionate heart to homelessness.

[Barrett r Blackwood]

You seem like a smart guy. I am suprised that you would not make sense of that. Ask people in the poling business and I am sure they will tell you that " the more persons poled the more accurate the survey becomes "

[Holden West]

^Actually, no. People in the polling business say that once you reach a certain percentage of the population you get diminishing increases in accuracy so there's not much point in making the sample larger. This poll is more for fun, as it's nowhere near scientific so any results should be taken with a boulder of salt.

[Bob Fugger]

You seem like a smart guy. I am suprised that you would not make sense of that. Ask people in the poling business and I am sure they will tell you that " the more persons poled the more accurate the survey becomes "

Hey, thanks for the compliment!

As a "smart guy" I also know that while polls like this are fun, from a statistical perspective, they are worthless. The first poll actually had more value, because it was closed to the public. You could therefore say that x% of VV's membership wants to see Candidate A elected. In this poll, you have an undefined population - and even saying this is problematic.

With the latest poll, it was open to the public with very few controls. So it only took a few NDP staffers to notice it to tell all of their fellow NDPers to come on here and vote. That may be an explanation as to why Open Victoria candidates were polling so heavily and then were washed out by a statistically inexplicable swing to the incumbents.

One last thing: if I ask anyone worth their salt in the polling business, they will tell me more respondents doesn't always = more accurate poll. Quality of data is much more important than quantity. Provided certain statistical principles are adhered to (like unbiased questions - yes, I'm looking at you, City of Victoria), a phone poll of 500 can be far more representative and accurate than a web poll 5,000 of a population of let's say 50,000.

[Bob Fugger]

^Actually, no. People in the polling business say that once you reach a certain percentage of the population you get diminishing increases in accuracy so there's not much point in making the sample larger. This poll is more for fun, as it's nowhere near scientific so any results should be taken with a boulder of salt.

This. And it appears that we both enjoy salt.

[Barrett r Blackwood]

fine fine I wont get into it any further except to say all eyes on VV.
VV is doing good.

[Mike K.]

What this poll does tell us is that regardless of which side of the fence respondents are on, some candidates are not getting as much support as others.

For instance, Isitt and Gudgeon appear to be out of the race. Hall is leading Lalli and McGrew and is the likeliest of the three Open Victoria candidates to get elected, and Paul Brown is neck-to-neck with Mayor Fortin. Without the poll we wouldn't be able to come to these conclusions.

One can extrapolate from the poll with relative certainty that the following candidates are highly unlikely to be elected:

- Saul Andersen
- Shellie Gudgeon
- Rose Henry
- Ben Isitt
- Sukhi Lalli
- Phillipe Lucas
- Linda McGrew
- Sean Murray
- John Turner
- Jon Valentine

Mayoral candidates Filipovic and Shebib appear to also be out of the running.

So while the poll may not tell us who exactly will get elected, it has revealed who is unlikely to get elected.

[Barrett r Blackwood]

I tend to agree , and given that this is the only pole going and that there is growing awarness of it, I must lend some faith in it.
Accurate or not I still say VV doing good.

[LJ]

I tend to agree , and given that this is the only pole going and that there is growing awarness of it, I must lend some faith in it.
.

For God's sake Barrett it's poll not pole!!!

[martini]

^

[Holden West]

Mike Kozakowski: An informative Pole.
VibrantVictoria: Has an informative poll.

[Nparker]

If I really believed the current results of this POLL I might be starting to make plans to relocate myself to a different municipality. Fortin has 40% of the vote???? Even the granola-chewing, basket-weaving hoards that seem to make up a large segment of the Victoria population have to see that the man is an idiot and not fit to be in charge of an elementary school bake sale yet alone BC's capital city budget.

[Mike K.]

Luckily we're able to edit out mass abuse of the poll, so the 100 votes Dean Fortin just received have been erased.

For anyone who wishes to spam the poll, please keep that in mind.

[Mike K.]

The poll will now be closed as some individuals are unable to participate in an unmoderated poll without, well, being moderated.

Given the volume of votes received we feel that we have achieved the goal and are able to discuss the upcoming election with the results as recorded.

Please feel free to discuss the results in this thread.

[martini]

^^ Wow
and ^wow

Thanks Mike

[Mike K.]

For sure

So there we have it. My money is on candidates with 17% or more support (of whom there are 10) in this poll as having the highest chance of being elected.

This means the race for council is likely to be between the following candidates:

- Alto
- Coleman
- Hall
- Helps
- Hunter
- Kimpton
- Luton
- Madoff
- Thornton-Joe
- Young

Paul Brown and Dean Fortin are literally neck to neck but it will be a battle for Brown at the polls. The Machine is out there for Dean and Cubberly in Saanich.

[Barrett r Blackwood]

For God's sake Barrett it's poll not pole!!!

LOL just an inside joke here at HQ . Wondered if anyone would point that out ? Was expecting Fugger to set me staight LOL

[Bob Fugger]

LOL just an inside joke here at HQ . Wondered if anyone would point that out ? Was expecting Fugger to set me staight LOL

I just assumed you didn't know any better.

[VicHockeyFan]

For sure

So there we have it. My money is on candidates with 17% or more support (of whom there are 10) in this poll as having the highest chance of being elected.

This means the race for council is likely to be between the following candidates:

- Alto
- Coleman
- Hall
- Helps
- Hunter
- Kimpton
- Luton
- Madoff
- Thornton-Joe
- Young

Paul Brown and Dean Fortin are literally neck to neck but it will be a battle for Brown at the polls. The Machine is out there for Dean and Cubberly in Saanich.

I was so off on the federal election (got one of the three CRD ones right) and the by-election for council and bridge referendum (got both wrong) that I think I'm not even gonna guess what is going to happen. I really don't want to see Leonard defeated. As far as I can tell, there is nothing wrong in Saanich that would need his ouster. I think voters will see it that way. Doh, there's me guessing what will happen again.

[Mike K.]

Realistically speaking I think that the only vacancy on council will be Lucas. Of all runner ups Helps has the biggest chance, I think.