2714 replies to this topic

[MarkoJ]

Mon Sep 11, 2017:

 

Sep Sep

2017 2016

Net Unconditional Sales: 183  781

New Listings: 321  1,050

Active Listings: 1,949 2,061

 

Please Note

 

Left Column: stats so far this month

Right Column: stats for the entire month from last year

[tjv]

I'm curious Marko, whats the general market doing with these double interest rate hikes this summer?

Edited by tjv, 11 September 2017 - 09:44 AM.

[lanforod]

You make it sound like a massive interest rate hike. It wasn't. 0.5% increase just brings us back in line with where we were in 2014, and its still very, very low.

[tjv]

and you think these are the only rate increases we are going to see?  Probably another one later this year followed by a few more next year.  Think long term not short term

[lanforod]

Yes, there will be more. Until you're getting over 3-4%, we're a long ways off from historical averages. 3.5% is 10 25 basis point increases away.

[tjv]

You keep forgetting that under historical averages house prices were a fraction of what they are today.  I am going to guess that when interest rates were 7-8% house prices were maybe around 250k.  Salaries have not kept pace with the increase in house prices.

[Mike K.]

And that's why the feds won't push ahead with a massive rate hike. Remember, as rates rise, the Canadian dollar also rises and that's not great for trade.

[Nparker]

...Remember, as rates rise, the Canadian dollar also rises and that's not great for trade.

But it's great for my upcoming weekend jaunt to Seattle.

[Mike K.]

Ah, and it also encourages Canadians to spend outside of the country.

[Nparker]

Ah, and it also encourages Canadians to spend outside of the country.

I might have chosen a Vancouver weekend, but hotel rates there are outrageous. The Clipper Vacations package was a great deal. 

[lanforod]

I might have chosen a Vancouver weekend, but hotel rates there are outrageous. The Clipper Vacations package was a great deal. 

Aren't you a government employee? Government hotel rates are great in Vancouver.

[Nparker]

Aren't you a government employee? Government hotel rates are great in Vancouver.

They are almost impossible to get anymore. 

[tjv]

And that's why the feds won't push ahead with a massive rate hike. Remember, as rates rise, the Canadian dollar also rises and that's not great for trade.

Interest rates are continued to rise say leading economists:

 

http://business.fina...anada-statement

 

The main reason the Canadian dollar is rising against the US is because of the disparity between the US fed rate and the BoC rate.  We are still 0.25% below the US fed rate.  The US will likely raise rates and Canada will continue to match them.

 

Construction is also out of control.  Although I don't know the current rate of construction inflation right now, 10 years ago in the last boom they were rising at 1.5 to 2% a month.

[Mike K.]

It's not that bad now, but the fires have definitely impacted the cost of lumber and plywood.

A decade ago the runup in construction costs was totally insane.

[lanforod]

They are almost impossible to get anymore. 

 

What? No way, pretty easy.

[Nparker]

What? No way, pretty easy.

Tell that to the staff in my office who were unable to secure reasonable government rates ($200/night or less) in downtown Vancouver for recent business-related travel.

[Mike K.]

Yikes, yeah. How's that affecting business travel? Is the government forced to pay higher rates or are the trips cancelled, or are workers forced to pay a portion of the rate themselves?

 

My girlfriend works for the feds and they have pretty strict limits on how much they will pay. I don't know what the procedure is if a hotel room is above the permitted rate.

[Nparker]

...How's that affecting business travel? Is the government forced to pay higher rates or are the trips cancelled, or are workers forced to pay a portion of the rate themselves?...

I am not closely involved with the travel functions in my office, but since visiting other parts of the province - often for several days at a time - is critical to the work we do, we are required to get senior executive approval to exceed allowable accommodation rates. Employees would never be expected to cover costs themselves for job-related expenses. The upside is that eventually we are often able to recoup costs from our "clients" as part of the recovery process. Fortunately, these high accommodation costs are mostly limited to downtown Vancouver and do not especially impact the work we do elsewhere in the province.

And now I feel I must add the following...

[Mike K.]

Gotcha, thanks!

[lanforod]

I get that, if you're talking about booking fairly short notice rooms, in summer time. 

 

Under 200 will be difficult in downtown Vancouver, regardless though. There certainly are rooms available though. I just checked the Sheraton Wall Centre - $269/night government rate, available for this weekend. That's a 4 or 5 star hotel.