6072 replies to this topic

[Victoria Watcher]

It's a bird! It's a plane!

 

We can expect media articles full of panic tomorrow once the press reports on real-estate data, but it's anything but a disaster scenario. 

https://victoria.cit...r-soft-landing/

 

Exactly.  Just ask any Realtor.  It's always a great time to buy.  And to sell.  

[Szeven]

Best case would seem to be one of Victora's consolidation periods. I can't imagine anyone thinks we can go higher with these rates and a 40%+ move in the last 3 years.

[UDeMan]

I don't think the true cost of higher interest rates are all factored in yet. People are still buying with rate gaurentees.

Edited by UDeMan, 04 July 2022 - 03:05 PM.

[Mike K.]

Is 4.x% the end of the world, though? And variable rates are still at 2.5-3%.

Inflation is also eroding the value of the mortgage debt.

[Szeven]

Is 4.x% the end of the world, though? And variable rates are still at 2.5-3%.

Inflation is also eroding the value of the mortgage debt.

 

It might not be the end of the world, but simple math tells us a move from 1.5-2.5% creates a larger move in individual buying power than a move from, say 4-5%. 

[Mike K.]

Yes, true. And in response sellers have been pricing more realistically, and adjusting their asks downwards. It all evens out if a seller needs to sell.

As per the article, Marko rightly pointed out that a decade ago when we faced a downturn there were much fewer willing buyers as demand waned. So far, we have strong demand that is motivated by price adjustments. So if you need to sell, you’ll have no problem finding a buyer so long as you’re priced right.

[Victoria Watcher]

Exactly.  Just ask any Realtor.  It's always a great time to buy.  And to sell.  

 

Some real estate agents are seeing prices starting to drop, with more listings in Greater Victoria’s real estate market and fewer sales.

 

Daniel Clover, a real estate agent with Re/Max Camosun, said Monday that he’s hearing from other agents who are dropping prices on some properties, including a recent case where a condominium’s price was reduced by $30,000 before it finally sold.

 

The number of active listings climbed to 2,059 at the end of June, up from 1,776 last month and 1,375 in June 2021.

 

At the same time, sales through the Victoria Real Estate Board declined to 612 last month from 761 in May and 942 in June of last year, the board said in its latest monthly report.

But Greater Victoria remains a popular destination and bidding wars are continuing for entry-level properties, Clover said.

 

The change in the market is due to a combination of factors, including rising interest rates and buyer fatigue, said Clover, who has been in the business 37 years and has had buyers cry on his shoulder in disappointment at losing out on a home.

 

 

https://www.timescol...r-sales-5547507

 

 

 

 

 

"Avoid crying on my shoulder, buy today!"

 

:

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 05 July 2022 - 06:04 AM.

[Mike K.]

Had to drop the price by $30,000? You were priced $30,000 over market.

[spanky123]

TD says housing prices to drop an average of 20% with the highest drops in BC and Ontario.  Provincial Housing Market Outlook: Home Prices to Fall Further Under the Weight of Higher Rates (td.com)

[spanky123]

Inflation is also eroding the value of the mortgage debt.

 

That would presume that your income keeps pace with inflation. Works for the Government as taxes are tied to prices but not so much for the average worker who will be getting 0% (if we slide into recession) or 2%-3% raises.

Edited by spanky123, 05 July 2022 - 09:36 AM.

[Tom Braybrook]

marko has a new video on this 

 

https://www.youtube....h?v=TNce3yx8xuc

[spanky123]

The change in the market is due to a combination of factors, including rising interest rates and buyer fatigue, said Clover, who has been in the business 37 years and has had buyers cry on his shoulder in disappointment at losing out on a home.

 

Fundamentally what drives pricing is # of buyers vs # of sellers. At the moment people are being told that prices are coming down, interest rates are going up and we are entering a recession. As a result, people are sitting on the sideline unless they have to enter or exit the market. Until we see one (or more) of the predictions prove to be false then demand will continue to be weak.

 

I remember back in the mid 90's when a recession and weak demand forced about 2/3 rds of realtors to find other jobs.

Edited by spanky123, 05 July 2022 - 11:02 AM.

[Mike K.]

Is demand weak, though?

I think the motivator today is quality at a fair price. Six months ago it was anything at any price, as people knew historically low interest rates wouldn’t last forever.

Today’s market is how the market should be. The garbage is priced approximately, the quality stuff still has bidding wars.

[spanky123]

^ There are always people who need to buy due to relocation, personal issues, etc. I am suggesting that the rest are going to be on the sidelines if they think prices are dropping 20% in the next year.  

[Mike K.]

Victoria has never seen a 30% decline (we’re already down 10% from the peak). At least not that I can remember.

Is the thinking out there that prices will drop from $1.4M to $1 million, on average, by 2024?

[spanky123]

^ I am only referring to what media and economist reports are saying. Many buyers today are too young to remember prior cycles.

[Victoria Watcher]

Prices will not drop that far in Victoria. They might in Hamilton or Edmonton.

As soon as Victoria looks like a deal, there are plenty of soon to retire people with pensions, all across the country, willing to buy here.

[spanky123]

^ Agreed although look at the construction going on in Nanaimo and north. I wouldn't at all be surprised that the majority of retirees are not bypassing Victoria and moving there.

[Barrrister]

I have friends in Toronto who were seriously looking and spent a few weeks here recently. They came to the conclusion that the city is becoming far too trashy (their exact wording was less kind). Reputation can spread quickly.

[Mike K.]

Luckily, there are 12 other municipalities to choose from, just on the south Island.

 

What typically happens is the monied retirees situate in Greater Victoria/Cowichan. These people still value an international airport nearby, major hospitals and some semblance of cosmopolitan-ess that Victoria offers, regardless of how dirty downtown streets are (think arts, concerts, events, dining, prestige, etc.). You don't really have that in Nanaimo and points north.