5936 replies to this topic

[Ismo07]

Can you go into a store and buy a candybar for 25 cents like you did when you were a kid? Home prices generally rise, it’s a reflection of a lot of factors.

The chart above is just a simple way of reflecting when buyers had the upper hand and when seller’s did. The actual price of real-estate isn’t relevant, otherwise we’d be arguing that houses should cost $150k not $900k.

*I didn’t know you are colour blind.

 

Increases in price is a part of it but not all of it.  No you can't buy a chocolate bar for the same price as when I was a kid but the price of a bar is similar here as it is in Estevan, Lethbridge or PEI.  You said it's not price and again you point to a table that is about price. 

 

We need avg time on market I think and we need price % above or below listing, and maybe inventory compared to other years.

Edited by Ismo07, 03 January 2023 - 03:32 PM.

[Mike K.]

Anyways, I can’t explain this any further. If we say Victoria has been a seller’s market for 20 years then so has everything that has appreciated in cost. Like municipal taxes. Why haven’t those come down?

People like to complain about real-estate costs and everyone’s a victim. Remember that our expert analyst formerly advised his flock the market was over-leveraged and would crash. That was a decade ago.

Do the math for yourself, listen to smart people around you and good luck.

[Ismo07]

Anyways, I can’t explain this any further. If we say Victoria has been a seller’s market for 20 years then so has everything that has appreciated in cost. Like municipal taxes. Why haven’t those come down?

People like to complain about real-estate costs and everyone’s a victim. Remember that our expert analyst formerly advised his flock the market was over-leveraged and would crash. That was a decade ago.

Do the math for yourself, listen to smart people around you and good luck.

 

Mike you said it's not about price and I agreed yet you keep talking about price...  It doesn't tell you something that it took a decade?  

 

And no not every were has is been a sellers market primarily...  This market is very strong.

 

Why would property taxes come down?  I don't think you understand how they work.

Edited by Ismo07, 03 January 2023 - 03:40 PM.

[Mike K.]

I can’t do this.

You’ll need to seek answers elsewhere.

[Ismo07]

I can’t do this.

You’ll need to seek answers elsewhere.

 

I have the answers, just trying to understand you.. Talk in circles   Come meet me for a drink next time.  We can take your shoes and socks off and we can go over how property taxes work and how they increase each year typically... 

[Mike K.]

Maybe that’s the problem! You’re drunk!

[Ismo07]

Maybe that’s the problem! You’re drunk!

 

Not yet  

[Mike K.]

I’ll clarify again. Price doesn’t matter. If a house in Victoria is a million dollars and a house in New Brunswick is $350k that’s irrelevant.

What matters is whether buyers or sellers had an advantage over a period of time, so we use undulations to determine a high level sense of the market. A cursory review over 20 years show us sellers had an upper hand in some years, buyers in others.

As you zoom in there are even more undulations, like the first half of 2022 being a seller’s market and the second half a buyer’s market.

[Ismo07]

I’ll clarify again. Price doesn’t matter. If a house in Victoria is a million dollars and a house in New Brunswick is $350k that’s irrelevant.

What matters is whether buyers or sellers had an advantage over a period of time, so we use undulations to determine a high level sense of the market. A cursory review over 20 years show us sellers had an upper hand in some years, buyers in others.

As you zoom in there are even more undulations, like the first half of 2022 being a seller’s market and the second half a buyer’s market.

 

But you are using a table for % change in price.  If there is over an 8-9% increase you are saying it is a sellers market, if between 0 and 7% it's even if below 0% its buyers.  I'm saying we need more info than that.  I've never said overall price matters and you keep bringing this up...  But more than just how much the median has gone up or down.  That too simple.  There are a few more factors I would say.

 

Now property taxes do not go down because everything (expenses) cost more each each year, a large % is staffing costs.  This is another area where cost of the home doesn't matter (indirectly it can based on other properties) so typically property taxes go up, unless your property assessment increases less than the average by quite a bit, for the most part, even then it's likely to increase.

 

When I spoke about other areas I was speaking to the increase in prices over the long term in those areas compared to Victoria.  This is why we see more people buying here hence a factor leading to more sellers markets..  More buyers and less inventory.  You don't get that in New Brunswick as much.

Edited by Ismo07, 03 January 2023 - 04:23 PM.

[dasmo]

I met the guy whose parents built the first house I owned. Built in 1933 for $3k. I’m pretty sure it hasn’t been a sellers market for 90 years.

[Mike K.]

December figures and the 2022 year-end tally is going to deliver some gifts, that's for sure. Big records broken, some expected outcomes weren't. Stay tuned.

[Citified.ca]

Read this, and make sense of it all. A crazy, turbulent year, that also generated a slew of trophies.

 

Literally, only in Victoria.

 

Rollercoaster 2022 was 'still' a year of real-estate records in Victoria despite losing gains from January to December

https://victoria.cit...nuary-december/

[Sparky]

^ Nice work Mike and Marko. That was one heck of a synopsis for one heck of a year.

[Victoria Watcher]

Real-estate sales drop as rising inflation discourages buyers

Greater Victoria’s real estate market ended 2022 with sales down almost a third from the year prior, as rising inflation eroded buying power. A total of 6,804 properties changed hands last year, down from 10,052 in 2021.


https://www.timescol...-buyers-6323777


Year-over-year prices show a modest increase for December. The benchmark value of a single-family home in the core area of Victoria was $1,283,600 last month, up slightly from $1,262,600 the same month in 2021.

The benchmark for a condo in the Victoria core was $574,300 last month, up from $544,100 in December 2021.

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 03 January 2023 - 09:36 PM.

[Mike K.]

The province says buyers who back out of a sale within the three-day period will be hit with a cancellation fee of $250 for every $100,000 of a home's purchase price, to ensure transactions are taken seriously.

In a statement, Finance Minister Katrine Conroy said the measures will protect buyers and strengthen public confidence in the real estate market.

- https://www.cbc.ca/n...eriod-1.6703011

The fee guarantees only a complete newbie with a first-time realtor uses this approach. Thanks, truckers!

This is going to be one of the most useless pieces of legislation ever introduced. It’s fitting, of course, that the market doomsdayers are all over it.

[Mike K.]

Everyone loves solving real-estate problems and nail biting over any chance to push doom and gloom. The real-estate market just has to be handled right.

Starting with knowing that from the moment you buy, you’ll need at least 7.5% profit on whatever you paid to walk away scott free. And it might be more depending on how your mortgage is structured, whether you can port it to another property, or if you have to pay a penalty for ending it. A safe bet is to aim for 10% recovery on the price you paid.

[qv]

Everyone loves solving real-estate problems and nail biting over any chance to push doom and gloom. The real-estate market just has to be handled right.

Starting with knowing that from the moment you buy, you’ll need at least 7.5% profit on whatever you paid to walk away scott free. And it might be more depending on how your mortgage is structured, whether you can port it to another property, or if you have to pay a penalty for ending it. A safe bet is to aim for 10% recovery on the price you paid.

I suspect a lot of amateur 'flippers' break even or lose money on their flips once all costs are properly accounted for.

[dasmo]

New York super towers and housing as liquid assets. Super interesting vid. Especially for you high rise fans.
https://youtu.be/Wehsz38P74g

[Victoria Watcher]

All the folks that rushed to buy real estate early 2018 to avoid being stress tested 2018 should have tbeir 5yr fixed coming up for mortgage renewal in the coming weeks. Going to be a crazy Q1 in Canada.

 

 

 

 

 

March 2018:

 

 

 

As of Jan. 1, Canadians getting, renewing or refinancing a mortgage might have to undergo a stress test, proving that they would be financially OK even if interest rates were to rise substantially above their actual mortgage rate.

 

That’s because new federal guidelines came into effect at the beginning of the year. They require all federally regulated financial institutions to vet borrowers’ applications using a minimum qualifying rate equal to the greater of the Bank of Canada’s five-year benchmark rate (currently 5.14 per cent) or their contractual rate, plus two percentage points.

 

https://globalnews.c...ress-test-2018/

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 06 January 2023 - 03:37 AM.

[spanky123]

Year-over-year prices show a modest increase for December. The benchmark value of a single-family home in the core area of Victoria was $1,283,600 last month, up slightly from $1,262,600 the same month in 2021.

 

Only to go even higher when zoned for a 6 plex with no parking requirements!