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Let's hear your 2013 election PREDICTIONS


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#1 VicHockeyFan

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Posted 25 April 2013 - 10:19 AM

OK, we all have opinions of who should win, let's put your cards on the table and predict who will win, and by how much.

So two categories here....

#1, how many ridings will each party take? Right now:

45 Liberals
36 NDP
4 Independent


... out of a total of 85 in the province

#2, name your riding winners in the Victoria area. Right now:

Esquimalt-Royal Roads NDP
Juan de Fuca NDP
Oak Bay-Gordon Head Liberal
Saanich North and the Islands Liberal
Saanich South NDP
Victoria-Beacon Hill NDP
Victoria-Swan Lake NDP
<p><span style="font-size:12px;"><em><span style="color:rgb(40,40,40);font-family:helvetica, arial, sans-serif;">"I don’t need a middle person in my pizza slice transaction" <strong>- zoomer, April 17, 2018</strong></span></em></span>

#2 VicHockeyFan

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Posted 25 April 2013 - 10:22 AM

I'll go first.

NDP 65
Liberal 18
Green/Independent 2


Victoria area, all NDP except:

Oak Bay-Gordon Head Green
<p><span style="font-size:12px;"><em><span style="color:rgb(40,40,40);font-family:helvetica, arial, sans-serif;">"I don’t need a middle person in my pizza slice transaction" <strong>- zoomer, April 17, 2018</strong></span></em></span>

#3 phx

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Posted 25 April 2013 - 07:50 PM

Weaver (Green party) does appear to be in the lead judging by the lawn signs in the hood.

#4 Bingo

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Posted 25 April 2013 - 07:56 PM

Victoria area, all NDP except:

Oak Bay-Gordon Head Green


I agree. :thumbsup:

#5 G-Man

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Posted 25 April 2013 - 08:42 PM

#1

30 Liberals
50 NDP
2 Green
2 Conservative
1 Independent
... out of a total of 85 in the province

#2, name your riding winners in the Victoria area. Right now:

Esquimalt-Royal Roads NDP
Juan de Fuca NDP
Oak Bay-Gordon Head Green
Saanich North and the Islands Green
Saanich South NDP
Victoria-Beacon Hill NDP
Victoria-Swan Lake NDP

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#6 VicHockeyFan

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Posted 25 April 2013 - 08:52 PM

Saanich North and the Islands Green


That might be interesting, for sure.
<p><span style="font-size:12px;"><em><span style="color:rgb(40,40,40);font-family:helvetica, arial, sans-serif;">"I don’t need a middle person in my pizza slice transaction" <strong>- zoomer, April 17, 2018</strong></span></em></span>

#7 G-Man

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Posted 25 April 2013 - 08:59 PM

I think that the liberals are going to a lot better than the polls are showing and I think that many people that would vote NDP if scared of the liberals will not vote or vote green because the outcome is such a "sure thing".

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#8 VicHockeyFan

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Posted 26 April 2013 - 05:31 AM

I think that the liberals are going to a lot better than the polls are showing and I think that many people that would vote NDP if scared of the liberals will not vote or vote green because the outcome is such a "sure thing".


I think so too, we are so NDP here we think it's going to be a cakewalk. The Okanagan and much of the Fraser Valley ridings will not likely go NDP.
<p><span style="font-size:12px;"><em><span style="color:rgb(40,40,40);font-family:helvetica, arial, sans-serif;">"I don’t need a middle person in my pizza slice transaction" <strong>- zoomer, April 17, 2018</strong></span></em></span>

#9 VicHockeyFan

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Posted 28 April 2013 - 05:06 PM

OK, I'm predicting now some strange stuff in OB/GH and Victoria/BH.

There is going to be some vote-splitting.

So now I'm predicting Ida Chong to win because of this, and Carole James to only barely win.
<p><span style="font-size:12px;"><em><span style="color:rgb(40,40,40);font-family:helvetica, arial, sans-serif;">"I don’t need a middle person in my pizza slice transaction" <strong>- zoomer, April 17, 2018</strong></span></em></span>

#10 Bingo

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Posted 28 April 2013 - 08:52 PM

OK, I'm predicting now some strange stuff in OB/GH and Victoria/BH.

There is going to be some vote-splitting.

So now I'm predicting Ida Chong to win because of this, and Carole James to only barely win.


There are a lot of Weaver signs in Oak Bay, and Sterk signs were everywhere on the 10k route this morning.

#11 Fairbanks

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Posted 29 April 2013 - 06:46 AM

Conservatives will implode, sending votes to the Libs.

But n a perfect world, the NDP would win a minority Gov.

#12 Holden West

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Posted 29 April 2013 - 07:03 AM

OK, I'm predicting now some strange stuff in OB/GH and Victoria/BH.

There is going to be some vote-splitting.

So now I'm predicting Ida Chong to win because of this, and Carole James to only barely win.


However, might some soft liberal supporters abandon Ida knowing the Libs are going down to defeat and don't want to vote for a lame duck?

OB/GH is really going to be the one to watch along with Vic/BH. It will be a tight three way race in Saanich but if BC's tendency to regress back to the devil you know holds here, Chong will (barely) retain her seat.
"Beaver, ahoy!""The bridge is like a magnet, attracting both pedestrians and over 30,000 vehicles daily who enjoy the views of Victoria's harbour. The skyline may change, but "Big Blue" as some call it, will always be there."
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#13 Hotel Mike

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Posted 29 April 2013 - 11:22 AM

If there is a Green wave of sorts on the Island, look to Saanich North and the Islands as another potential win.

Ida Chong has a certain core support that will stick with her, though a lot of soft voters may look to Andrew Weaver. The story of how Chong claimed the full amount of her daily allowance...never went home for lunch or brought in leftovers...puts her in a poor light, and will turn off all but her staunchest supporters.

I can't imagine Carole James not winning in VBH. Sterk will be second.
Don't be so sure.:cool:

#14 phx

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Posted 06 May 2013 - 08:52 PM

It's hard to see Weaver winning in Oak Bay/Gordon Head. The 2009 results were:

Liberal 11877
NDP 11316
Green 2330

Presumably the NDP and Green voters will stick where they are, and a bunch of disaffected Liberals will switch. I think it unlikely enough will switch to the Green party to elect them, however.

#15 VicHockeyFan

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Posted 06 May 2013 - 09:26 PM

Saanich/Islands federal, 2008:

Conservative Gary Lunn 27,988
Liberal Briony Penn 25,367
Green Andrew Lewis 6,732

... and we know what happened in 2011...

Green Elizabeth May 31,890
Conservative Gary Lunn 24,544
New Democratic Edith Loring-Kuhanga 8185
<p><span style="font-size:12px;"><em><span style="color:rgb(40,40,40);font-family:helvetica, arial, sans-serif;">"I don’t need a middle person in my pizza slice transaction" <strong>- zoomer, April 17, 2018</strong></span></em></span>

#16 VicHockeyFan

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Posted 06 May 2013 - 09:27 PM

Presumably the NDP and Green voters will stick where they are


No way. Weaver is a super-star. He's taking lots of NDP votes next week.
<p><span style="font-size:12px;"><em><span style="color:rgb(40,40,40);font-family:helvetica, arial, sans-serif;">"I don’t need a middle person in my pizza slice transaction" <strong>- zoomer, April 17, 2018</strong></span></em></span>

#17 Holden West

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Posted 06 May 2013 - 11:02 PM

^VHF is right on this one. The fence is collapsing from all the NDP/Green undecideds sitting on it. Best hope for Ida is squeaking out a win in a tight three way race. More realistically, Weaver will coast on his superstar status into a seat, with Chong a possible third place finisher.
"Beaver, ahoy!""The bridge is like a magnet, attracting both pedestrians and over 30,000 vehicles daily who enjoy the views of Victoria's harbour. The skyline may change, but "Big Blue" as some call it, will always be there."
-City of Victoria website, 2009

#18 phx

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Posted 07 May 2013 - 06:39 PM

I did not imagine the NDP voters to be so fickle. We shall see if they defect and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

#19 LJ

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Posted 07 May 2013 - 07:05 PM

I saw a Fiskar Karma going south on Government today with an Weaver pennant on it, I assumed it was the candidate driving.
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#20 sebberry

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Posted 07 May 2013 - 07:24 PM

I saw a Fiskar Karma going south on Government today with an Weaver pennant on it, I assumed it was the candidate driving.


Weaver was on TV driving a small Honda the other day, so I doubt he's driving the Fiskar...

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