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Federal Budget


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#1 Bingo

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Posted 15 January 2015 - 04:47 PM

This years federal budget is delayed

 

 

Finance Minister Joe Oliver says he will delay the federal budget until at least April due to the volatility of the economy.

The finance minister is pledging the federal government will be able to balance the budget in 2015 and even post a surplus of about $1.6 billion.

The decline of crude prices has already resulted in layoffs in Alberta's energy sector, and prompted some economists to predict the province's economy could contract in 2015 and enter a recession.

"This great province is being sorely tested by an unexpected and dramatic fall in crude oil prices since last June," Oliver told reporters. "This new reality poses a great, though not entirely an unprecedented, challenge."

He made the comments in a speech to the Calgary Chamber of Commerce Thursday.The Alberta government is currently projecting a $6.7-billion drop in resource revenue based on forecasting oil at $65 US a barrel in the upcoming year.http://www.cbc.ca/ne...2901955?cmp=rss

 

 



#2 Bingo

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Posted 10 November 2015 - 10:45 PM

Not as much in the pot as was thought.

 

To judge by a report released Tuesday by the Parliamentary Budget Officer, the outgoing Harper government was unduly optimistic in its forecasts and estimates.

The Canadian economy continues to face strong headwinds, from both sluggish global demand and stubbornly low oil prices.

The Canadian economy is now forecast to produce $32 billion less income next year than had been anticipated in the last forecast, published in April.

National income for 2017 will be $43 billion less than expected.

What to do about that reality now becomes a political question on which the Liberals have two options.

One is to shrink their spending plans, in order to keep the deficit under $10 billion.

That will mean fewer new bridges, fewer new green jobs and fewer dollars for transit and housing projects.

The other option is to declare that the economy and budget they inherited from the Harper government are in worse shape than they thought and that their deficits will therefore need to be bigger.

http://www.cbc.ca/ne...3312757?cmp=rss



#3 Jason-L

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Posted 11 November 2015 - 06:15 AM

I'm shocked to discover than an incumbent government might have exaggerated their economic performance during an election!


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#4 gumgum

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Posted 11 November 2015 - 09:03 AM

What a legacy the Harper government has left us.

#5 spanky123

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Posted 11 November 2015 - 11:40 AM

I'm shocked to discover than an incumbent government might have exaggerated their economic performance during an election!

 

I don't think that anyone is saying that the Harper Gov't overstated anything. The results are audited.

 

What is happening is that the forecast for economic growth over the next few years is slowing and the Government has very few levers left to try and improve things. As a result, the PBO is reducing its revenue estimates and hence a larger hole.



#6 phx

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Posted 11 November 2015 - 10:54 PM

I'm shocked at how quickly the economy has deteriorated since Trudeau assumed office.



#7 sdwright.vic

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Posted 12 November 2015 - 06:15 AM

^^ Harper was using money not even collected or legislated yet to balance his budget.
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#8 spanky123

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Posted 12 November 2015 - 06:33 AM

^^ Harper was using money not even collected or legislated yet to balance his budget.

 

No he wasn't. The PBO is still forecasting a small surplus for this year. It is the next few years that are at issue. At this point this has nothing to do with Trudeau or Harper. This is simply a warning that the economy continues to slow and that with planned spending we will be looking at a large budget hole. Spending ones way out of that hole seemed to have worked in the US without driving up inflation. The problem for us is that the US is recovering and interest rates will be rising there. Having our monetary policy at odds with the US will be new territory.

 

The whole reason why the election was moved to the fall was so that the financial results could be audited beforehand and the forecasting game avoided. Now you can believe that the PBO and auditors were all in cahoots with Harper but the fact is that the economy has been slowing for 18 months and each progressive forecast has been getting worse. Consumer debt is at an all time high, Government revenues are declining and we have a seriously overheated housing prices in some markets. You may not have liked the medicine but things could get a whole lot worse before they get better.

 

If there is anyone trying to game the system in my opinion it is some of the 3rd party banks and organizations who have clear allegiances to one party over another and who always seem to colour their own forecasts accordingly.


Edited by spanky123, 12 November 2015 - 06:42 AM.


#9 Bingo

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Posted 12 November 2015 - 07:12 AM

I'm shocked at how quickly the economy has deteriorated since Trudeau assumed office.

 

It was bad before Trudeau took over, it's just that we are paying more attention to it now.

Many Canadians are in denial around their own spending habits, and are living beyond their means.


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#10 spanky123

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Posted 12 November 2015 - 08:17 AM

It was bad before Trudeau took over, it's just that we are paying more attention to it now.

Many Canadians are in denial around their own spending habits, and are living beyond their means.

 

Not many - most.

 

CMHC recently stated that a 20% housing price correction would put 1/5 of all homeowners below water. A 30% correction (what happened in the US) would trigger massive defaults and losses.



#11 Bingo

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Posted 12 November 2015 - 08:22 AM

Not many - most.

 

CMHC recently stated that a 20% housing price correction would put 1/5 of all homeowners below water. A 30% correction (what happened in the US) would trigger massive defaults and losses.

 

Not most.

Many of the boomers have money, but it's their offspring that are piling up the debt thinking that they will be okay once they inherit mom and dads money.

That thinking is going to get them into trouble when they find out their parents are living longer, and are busy spending the money while doing it. 



#12 Mike K.

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Posted 12 November 2015 - 08:23 AM

I think people will adjust. The US situation will not recur in Canada, but no doubt some people will lose their homes. Heck, some will lose their homes when mortgage rates start climbing back up.

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#13 spanky123

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Posted 12 November 2015 - 08:26 AM

Not most.

Many of the boomers have money, but it's their offspring that are piling up the debt thinking that they will be okay once they inherit mom and dads money.

That thinking is going to get them into trouble when they find out their parents are living longer, and are busy spending the money while doing it. 

 

The problem with retirees is that many are on fixed incomes and with interest rates near 0 for the past decade their savings have depleted far faster than they planned.



#14 Mike K.

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Posted 12 November 2015 - 08:33 AM

Many seniors have no mortgage and limited expenses. They can even defer property taxes.

It's the 20-40 year olds who will lose their shirts.

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#15 jonny

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Posted 12 November 2015 - 08:36 AM

The problem with retirees is that many are on fixed incomes and with interest rates near 0 for the past decade their savings have depleted far faster than they planned.

 

Retirees are the wealthiest cohort in Canada. They'll be fine. Like Mike said, the people who will default are the 30 year olds who are spending 50% of their take home pay on a mortgage who would be hurting in such a situation.



#16 Bingo

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Posted 13 November 2015 - 10:18 PM

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has ordered Vancouver's Kitsilano Coast Guard station re-opened in a mandate letter to Minister of Fisheries and Oceans Hunter Tootoo.

The move was promised during Trudeau's election campaign, and is included in a list of initiatives the prime minister labeled "top priorities" in his letter.

The station was shuttered by Stephen Harper's Conservatives in early 2013, in a move criticized by experts and local city councillors.

Since then, the closest fully established base has been in Victoria.

"The building is still there, they just need to station some boats."

http://www.cbc.ca/ne...-open-1.3318028

 

 



#17 Bingo

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Posted 29 November 2015 - 12:42 PM

The Justin Trudeau era begins in earnest Friday with all the pomp of a traditional speech from the throne.

The shift will start with the text of the throne speech itself — expected to be a short, factual recitation of the government's priorities, recapping the highlights of the Liberal election platform with minimal rhetorical flourishes.

The House of Commons will sit for a week before taking an extended Christmas break, just long enough to pass a motion putting into effect two of the central platform planks: a tax cut for middle-income earners and tax hike for the wealthiest one per cent.

 

A more immediate source of conflict could be the Senate, where the Conservatives hold a majority and may not be eager to let Liberal legislation pass unchallenged.

Trudeau could remedy that by filling 22 vacancies in the upper house but he won't do that until he's set up his promised advisory body to recommend non-partisan Senate nominees.

 

http://www.cbc.ca/ne...3342440?cmp=rss

 



#18 Mike K.

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Posted 29 November 2015 - 12:48 PM

Ok, but before you take your break tell us what the deal is with the TFSA, please.


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#19 johnk

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Posted 29 November 2015 - 02:29 PM

New governments everywhere pretty well always find the cupboard bare no matter what the previous regime claimed. Pretending a balanced budget by underspending the veterans budget is a tad crass though.

#20 spanky123

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Posted 29 November 2015 - 03:09 PM

New governments everywhere pretty well always find the cupboard bare no matter what the previous regime claimed. Pretending a balanced budget by underspending the veterans budget is a tad crass though.

 

The election was moved to the fall so that Governments had to provide audited financial statements beforehand. There is no argument then that anyone fudged the results. The economy is weakening and revenues are lower than forecast. Both the Conservatives and the Liberals knew that going into the election. The Conservatives choose to paint a rosy picture of the economy while the Liberals choose to ignore it and promise massive spending that they knew they couldn't deliver on.  Both played the game and both would have had to deal with the consequences.



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