Jump to content

      













Photo

$1000+/sq. foot


  • Please log in to reply
97 replies to this topic

#1 johnk

johnk
  • Member
  • 1,598 posts

Posted 07 February 2017 - 11:00 AM

Just saw an open house listing in The Falls. 1182 sq. ft asking $1.395 million!
Nice view from the 14th floor....but, $1180/sq. ft seems pretty crazy for anything outside of David Foster-calibre penthouses at Shoal Point.

#2 MarkoJ

MarkoJ
  • Member
  • 4,796 posts
  • LocationVictoria

Posted 07 February 2017 - 11:11 AM

Just saw an open house listing in The Falls. 1182 sq. ft asking $1.395 million!
Nice view from the 14th floor....but, $1180/sq. ft seems pretty crazy for anything outside of David Foster-calibre penthouses at Shoal Point.

 

Units at the Janion are selling at close to a $1,000 a foot.  

 

Unit just sold in Promontory at $842 a foot so a few buildings are closing in.


Marko Juras, REALTOR® & Associate Broker | Gold MLS® 2011-2018 | Fair Realty

www.MarkoJuras.com - MLS® from $899 and $1,000 cash back for buyers | www.834sales.com & www.promontoryforsale.com - Building(s) specialist 

Looking at Condo Pre-Sales in Victoria? Save Thousands!

 

 


#3 Rob Randall

Rob Randall
  • Member
  • 10,224 posts

Posted 07 February 2017 - 11:16 AM

I hate this trend. I just am not seeing the value. I understand capitalism is just working its magic but this is putting home ownership further out of reach.

 

Median apartment in Manhattan is $2300 psf CDN. 


"[Randall's] aesthetic poll was more accurate than his political acumen"

-Tom Hawthorne, Toronto Globe and Mail


#4 MarkoJ

MarkoJ
  • Member
  • 4,796 posts
  • LocationVictoria

Posted 07 February 2017 - 11:47 AM

I hate this trend. I just am not seeing the value. I understand capitalism is just working its magic but this is putting home ownership further out of reach.

 

Median apartment in Manhattan is $2300 psf CDN. 

 

I agree, important to remember that price per square foot plummets as soon as you leave downtown.

 

You can buy into this high-quality concrete building at under $500 per foot -> http://www.lyraresidences.com/


  • Rob Randall likes this

Marko Juras, REALTOR® & Associate Broker | Gold MLS® 2011-2018 | Fair Realty

www.MarkoJuras.com - MLS® from $899 and $1,000 cash back for buyers | www.834sales.com & www.promontoryforsale.com - Building(s) specialist 

Looking at Condo Pre-Sales in Victoria? Save Thousands!

 

 


#5 Rob Randall

Rob Randall
  • Member
  • 10,224 posts

Posted 07 February 2017 - 12:11 PM

I remember paying $260 psf at the Mosaic and thinking that was really high because there were a lot of nice large condos on the market priced below $200.


"[Randall's] aesthetic poll was more accurate than his political acumen"

-Tom Hawthorne, Toronto Globe and Mail


#6 johnk

johnk
  • Member
  • 1,598 posts

Posted 07 February 2017 - 12:21 PM

IIRC correctly there were comments when it opened that The Falls build quality was less than stellar. $1.4 million is a lot for under 1200 sq. ft.
A truly terrific 2500 sq. ft PH asking $1.295 million sold a few months ago in The Rockland.

#7 jonny

jonny
  • Member
  • 9,211 posts

Posted 07 February 2017 - 03:43 PM

I hate this trend. I just am not seeing the value. I understand capitalism is just working its magic but this is putting home ownership further out of reach.

 

Is it though?

 

The average home price in Canada in 1982 was $72,500. The average 5 year fixed interest rate in 1982 was 19.4%. That equates to a monthly payment of $1,138 in 1982 dollars. One 1982 dollar equates to about 2.5 2017 dollars.

 

The average home price in Canada in 2017 is something like $450,000. You can get a sub 3% average 5 year fixed interest rate in 2017, but let's assume 3%, which equates to a monthly payment of $2,130. $2,130 is somewhere around 1,000 1982 dollars.

 

I think you could make the case that on a cash flow basis, Canadians are better off than they were in the 80’s.

 

It shouldn’t be that hard for a millennial working a decent job to be able to save up $20-50k for a reasonable down payment. The norm, unlike perhaps in the 80’s, is for both household partners to work full-time. Sure, the prices in the Falls, which is one of Victoria’s few ‘luxury’ condo buildings, are going to be high. First-time homebuyers probably aren’t buying a unit in the Falls.


  • Promontory Kingpin likes this

#8 VicHockeyFan

VicHockeyFan
  • Suspended User
  • 52,121 posts

Posted 07 February 2017 - 03:47 PM

I hate this trend. I just am not seeing the value. I understand capitalism is just working its magic but this is putting home ownership further out of reach.

 

Is it?  Home ownership in Rockland has mostly been out of reach.  Now that's a little further out.  But it's only in this tiny bit of Canada.

 

percentage-of-people-25-34-who-own-their


<p><span style="font-size:12px;"><em><span style="color:rgb(40,40,40);font-family:helvetica, arial, sans-serif;">"I don’t need a middle person in my pizza slice transaction" <strong>- zoomer, April 17, 2018</strong></span></em></span>

#9 sebberry

sebberry

    Resident Housekeeper

  • Moderator
  • 18,365 posts
  • LocationVictoria

Posted 07 February 2017 - 03:57 PM

Is it though?

 

The average home price in Canada in 1982 was $72,500. The average 5 year fixed interest rate in 1982 was 19.4%. That equates to a monthly payment of $1,138 in 1982 dollars. One 1982 dollar equates to about 2.5 2017 dollars.

 

The average home price in Canada in 2017 is something like $450,000. You can get a sub 3% average 5 year fixed interest rate in 2017, but let's assume 3%, which equates to a monthly payment of $2,130. $2,130 is somewhere around 1,000 1982 dollars.

 

 

 

And how long does it take to pay off those two homes?


Victoria current weather by neighbourhood: Victoria school-based weather station network

Victoria webcams: Big Wave Dave Webcams

 


#10 jonny

jonny
  • Member
  • 9,211 posts

Posted 07 February 2017 - 04:03 PM

I used a 25 year amort for both scenarios.


  • sebberry and Matt R. like this

#11 Rob Randall

Rob Randall
  • Member
  • 10,224 posts

Posted 07 February 2017 - 04:04 PM

Is it though?

 

The average home price in Canada in 1982 was $72,500. The average 5 year fixed interest rate in 1982 was 19.4%. That equates to a monthly payment of $1,138 in 1982 dollars. One 1982 dollar equates to about 2.5 2017 dollars.

 

I appreciate where you're going with this but 1982 was a crazy high for mortgage rates.


"[Randall's] aesthetic poll was more accurate than his political acumen"

-Tom Hawthorne, Toronto Globe and Mail


#12 Nparker

Nparker
  • Member
  • 23,679 posts

Posted 07 February 2017 - 04:23 PM

I appreciate where you're going with this but 1982 was a crazy high for mortgage rates.

Agreed. Try the same figures from 1992 and see if today's prices still seem as affordable.



#13 VicHockeyFan

VicHockeyFan
  • Suspended User
  • 52,121 posts

Posted 07 February 2017 - 04:51 PM

Agreed. Try the same figures from 1992 and see if today's prices still seem as affordable.

 

 

 

House-prices-Canada1.png


<p><span style="font-size:12px;"><em><span style="color:rgb(40,40,40);font-family:helvetica, arial, sans-serif;">"I don’t need a middle person in my pizza slice transaction" <strong>- zoomer, April 17, 2018</strong></span></em></span>

#14 jonny

jonny
  • Member
  • 9,211 posts

Posted 07 February 2017 - 07:19 PM

Agreed. Try the same figures from 1992 and see if today's prices still seem as affordable.


I don't have access to a PC right now, but I honestly don't think the numbers are that different. Interest rates in the early 90's were still around 8-10% if I recall correctly. I'll do some more digging when I get a chance.

1982 was a high year, but it wasn't the worst situation. My parents and other relatives have lots of stories of having 20+% mortgage APRs.

#15 LJ

LJ
  • Member
  • 9,130 posts

Posted 07 February 2017 - 07:34 PM

I don't have access to a PC right now, but I honestly don't think the numbers are that different. Interest rates in the early 90's were still around 8-10% if I recall correctly. I'll do some more digging when I get a chance.

1982 was a high year, but it wasn't the worst situation. My parents and other relatives have lots of stories of having 20+% mortgage APRs.

And there were tons of people who just walked out on their mortgages as well. 82 was an anomaly. We used to think anything under 10% was a bonus, but we were also making 10% on savings accounts as well. I got into a credit union GIC for 5 years at 12%, by the time the term was over interest rates were back down to 8%.


Life's a journey......so roll down the window and enjoy the breeze.

#16 Nparker

Nparker
  • Member
  • 23,679 posts

Posted 07 February 2017 - 07:40 PM

I don't have access to a PC right now, but I honestly don't think the numbers are that different. Interest rates in the early 90's were still around 8-10% ...

The average house price in Canada in 1992 was around $149,000. Even a high ratio mortgage of $134,000 was more manageable at 9% interest ($1,250/month payment), than a $397,000 mortgage at 4% interest ($2000/month payment) is today.



#17 jonny

jonny
  • Member
  • 9,211 posts

Posted 07 February 2017 - 07:49 PM

$1,250 in 1992 equals almost $1,900 in 2017. You are really underestimating inflation here. $1,900 a month in 2017 is almost a $450,000 mortgage.
  • Matt R. likes this

#18 johnk

johnk
  • Member
  • 1,598 posts

Posted 07 February 2017 - 07:51 PM

We bought our first house for $40K in 1978. Sale was delayed a few months and we caught a break when interest rates dropped from 10.5% to 10.25% on a 5-year term. We thought we were lucky!
We were paying $325/mo rent and the PIT on the house totaled $342/month. Buying was a no-brainer.

Edited by johnk, 07 February 2017 - 07:52 PM.


#19 Nparker

Nparker
  • Member
  • 23,679 posts

Posted 07 February 2017 - 08:06 PM

$1,250 in 1992 equals almost $1,900 in 2017. You are really underestimating inflation here. $1,900 a month in 2017 is almost a $450,000 mortgage.

Average after tax income for a two parent family with children in 1992 = $67,300 (approx $99,000 in 2014 dollars)

Average after tax income for a two parent family with children in 2014 = $91,000

 

That $149,000 in 1992 should have cost around $220,000 in 2014 based on inflation.



#20 jonny

jonny
  • Member
  • 9,211 posts

Posted 08 February 2017 - 09:16 AM

Average after tax income for a two parent family with children in 1992 = $67,300 (approx $99,000 in 2014 dollars)

Average after tax income for a two parent family with children in 2014 = $91,000

 

That $149,000 in 1992 should have cost around $220,000 in 2014 based on inflation.

 

Tie this in with our previous discussion on monthly payments:

Disposable Income after housing costs in 1992: $52,300

Disposable Income after housing costs in 2016: $72,000ish

 

Where are the huge alarm bells?

 

Based upon Consumer Price Index...correct. Based upon the actual inflation in the cost of housing…wrong. Using a CPI calculator to zero in on one very specific, complicated sector is silly. Everybody knows that housing values have gone up higher than the CPI. I’m trying to explain to you one very important reason why that is – interest rates!

 

Why are you blatantly ignoring the effect of interest rates and insisting on comparing nominal values? Seriously, go and play with a mortgage calculator. Put your mortgage value in and change the interest rate to 9% and see how hilarious your monthly payments get. A moderate change in interest rates has a massive effect on what people can afford. Why do you think it hits the front pages when the Bank of Canada changes the prime rate by 0.25%? I guarantee you that if the government passed some wacky law that said that all mortgages must have an interest rate of 9% that we would see housing prices immediately fall 40-50%.  

 

Buying a house is a cash flow game. It's all about the cash flow. Almost nobody buys a house for 100% cash. Most people finance and makes monthly payments. For the most part, consumers – including consumers of housing – are rational. They will pay what they can afford.


  • Matt R. and songheesguy like this

You're not quite at the end of this discussion topic!

Use the page links at the lower-left to go to the next page to read additional posts.
 



0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users