What are the chances of Stephen Andrew winning - realistically? He has my vote 100% - If TV wins, it will be rather disappointing
since there are no incumbents running, the biggest influence - incumbency advantage - doesn't come in to play
one important factor is turnout. by-elections are traditionally low turnout events. low turnout voters tend to be whiter, older, wealthier and better educated
yet another factor is the information environment the election takes place in - are voters getting the information they need to make an informed choice - are candidates making use of all opportunities, press, social media, personal contact (CoVid restraint here)
third - and perhaps key - is organization. vital in a low turnout environment. motivating people to vote is magnified as each vote weighs proportionately more than when compared to high turnout events
if this is a low turnout by-election - the candidate machine will have a big influence
given that personal campaigning is limited social media and press will have more impact
the demographic makeup might be the least important
there are only two serious candidates - Stefanie Hardman and Stephen Andrew announced so far. So there is no way to determine possible effect of vote-splitting at this point.
TV and Hardman may have an edge in organization, fund-raising, and tech savvy social media types, so in a low turnout environment have the edge there
however the close association with the current council could be a negative if the motivating factor for voting is the current mess of tent cities/homelesness and causes a larger turnout that could counteract their numbers.
Stephen Andrew has the closest thing to the incumbent advantage as his close 9th place finish in the last general election may give him name recognition and a built in base - but as demonstrated the TV base is a much larger. TV candidates outpolled Stephen Andrew by 15-40% in 2018.
additionally. any voters motivated in opposition to current council's handling of issues are more likely to gravitate to Stephen Andrew
taken together these factors would lead to a conclusion that who turns out to vote, and in what numbers will tell the tale.
two special circumstances are the pandemic and election timing (Dec 12) - for two reasons - not as many students are in town, and many of the snowbirds are stuck here - both of these might favour Stephen Andrew as the TV demographic skews younger whereas the older voter would likely lean towards Stephen Andrew.
looks like a tossup - but based on past results alone, and assuming the general disinterest in by-elections TV has a definte edge.
disclosure - i am wrong more often than right! ;-)
STAY CONNECTED TO VIBRANTVICTORIA
WHAT'S HAPPENING ON CITIFIED VICTORIA
