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COVID ECONOMICS


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#501 Matt R.

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Posted 29 June 2020 - 08:41 PM

Does bankruptcy protect certain assets? Especially if money has been moved for protection from bankruptcy. 


Ohhhhhh I get it, it’s a scam to get out of paying your bills. Duh!

Matt.

#502 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 30 June 2020 - 04:46 AM

Gross domestic product took a massive hit in April, when COVID-19 shutdowns were in place for a full month. Statistics Canada says the GDP shrank 11.6 per cent compared to March, which was down 7.5 per cent from February. The median of economists' expectations was for a 12.2 per cent decrease, while an earlier Statistics Canada flash estimate was for a drop of 11 per cent. The agency says all 20 sectors decreased.



#503 lanforod

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Posted 30 June 2020 - 07:01 AM

So are we expecting a small increase in June/July after another decrease in May?



#504 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 30 June 2020 - 07:05 AM

yes that would make sense.

#505 spanky123

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Posted 30 June 2020 - 10:39 AM

So are we expecting a small increase in June/July after another decrease in May?

 

Talk to 10 "experts" and you will get 11 different answers. The economy is being floated by massive Government stimulus. The real question is what happens when that stops.


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#506 Casual Kev

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Posted 30 June 2020 - 12:34 PM

^ Yup. The stimulus doesn't even account for a second wave being just as bad if not worse. We're still in uncharted territory.

#507 spanky123

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Posted 30 June 2020 - 01:15 PM

^ Yup. The stimulus doesn't even account for a second wave being just as bad if not worse. We're still in uncharted territory.

 

I think that is the $64K question. If we enter October with < 1% of the population immune and then get hit again for a much longer period of time over the winter, is the Government in a position to fund the economy to an even greater extent. Bear in mind that much of the developed world will have a much greater % of the population with immunity and will have incurred much less debt to date.



#508 Ismo07

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Posted 30 June 2020 - 02:34 PM

Parking Update:

 

Thought I'd put this here as it relates to econimics of the downtown core.  By the end of last week metered parking was just over 71% of last year.  I think this is very encouraging.  Short-term parking limits are back in the core and through the last 4 weeks we've seen a solid increase of 4-7% increase in transactions compared to last year.  Downtown is kind of buzzing and anecdotally there are a few businesses still closed but everyone seems to be getting going.  Parkades are a little slower at about 60% by the end of last week but they seem to be increasing transactions a little faster over the last few weeks.  Looking at a very solid July, not normal but recovery is better than anticipated back in April.



#509 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 30 June 2020 - 02:37 PM

great report ismo.

#510 spanky123

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Posted 30 June 2020 - 04:10 PM

Parking Update:

 

Thought I'd put this here as it relates to econimics of the downtown core.  By the end of last week metered parking was just over 71% of last year.  I think this is very encouraging.  Short-term parking limits are back in the core and through the last 4 weeks we've seen a solid increase of 4-7% increase in transactions compared to last year.  Downtown is kind of buzzing and anecdotally there are a few businesses still closed but everyone seems to be getting going.  Parkades are a little slower at about 60% by the end of last week but they seem to be increasing transactions a little faster over the last few weeks.  Looking at a very solid July, not normal but recovery is better than anticipated back in April.

 

Thanks for the update. Still interested in parking pass use as a proxy for office workers returning to the downtown core. How are View and Broughton parkades looking as far as monthly pass use year over year? I think the last time we covered this you mentioned monthly pass sales. I think that since many people are reimbursed for parking and there is a waiting list for spots, they will continue to purchase the pass even though they may not be using it.

 

I will grant you that it is busier downtown. The View St parkade had 170 empty spots last week at lunch which is down from 370 a month and a half ago.

 

Thanks for your help.


Edited by spanky123, 30 June 2020 - 04:13 PM.


#511 spanky123

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Posted 30 June 2020 - 04:14 PM

Took a stroll along Uptown Blvd on the weekend and it looks like about 1/2 of the retail stores have closed permanently.



#512 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 01 July 2020 - 12:01 AM

hard to see how tailored brands (Moore’s) is going to survive this.

well it’s another rent day today for retailers. decision day. try another month or close.

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 01 July 2020 - 12:02 AM.


#513 UDeMan

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Posted 01 July 2020 - 10:19 AM

Parking Update:

 

Thought I'd put this here as it relates to econimics of the downtown core.  By the end of last week metered parking was just over 71% of last year.  I think this is very encouraging.  Short-term parking limits are back in the core and through the last 4 weeks we've seen a solid increase of 4-7% increase in transactions compared to last year.  Downtown is kind of buzzing and anecdotally there are a few businesses still closed but everyone seems to be getting going.  Parkades are a little slower at about 60% by the end of last week but they seem to be increasing transactions a little faster over the last few weeks.  Looking at a very solid July, not normal but recovery is better than anticipated back in April.

 

just a note to the parking, the people in my office that are still required to come to work have switched from taking the bus to work to driving in and parking.  This is because of safety from exposure on the bus and also the cost to park in certain parkades is $5 a day which is the same price as a day pass.



#514 Casual Kev

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Posted 01 July 2020 - 10:37 AM

My impression is that car traffic is getting close to normal, but pedestrian and specially transit traffic are still way down. A lot of it is being induced by office workers staying home, but of course the lack of tourists figures in the equation.



#515 Mike K.

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Posted 01 July 2020 - 10:43 AM

I don’t think it’s close just yet. There’s no Colwood Crawl of any kind and the highways are free flowing at all times that I’ve been on them, mornings and in the afternoons. Even Wilkinson is a breeze, and it’s usually a hot mess.

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#516 Spy Black

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Posted 01 July 2020 - 01:27 PM

I think residents of the region would be somewhat shocked at what's going on on those second and third floors of downtown office buildings.

Many are already empty, or will be empty by the end of August.

 

In my office building, a long time renter of a substantial number of square feet of office space is leaving for good, and taking their dozen or so employees with them, never to return.

This is happening to varying degrees in almost every office building in and around the block my office is in.

 

I suspect the impact will be felt downtown sooner than later, initially in the food and beverage establishments who survive from these office workers buying between $10.00 and $20.00 worth of food and beverage from them day in and day out - but eventually creeping out into general retail of all sorts.

Despite Ismo's somewhat positive parking report, I suspect the revenue being generated these days in retail establishments downtown is just a fraction of what it was pre-COVID, and that a few of those parking downtown currently are just there tying up loose ends prior to vacating the core for good.


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#517 TFord

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Posted 01 July 2020 - 05:39 PM

Sorry folks; 

 

Parking is a poor chart to monitor the health of downtown Victoria during this pandemic. As soon as I read the post I thought wait a minute its probably folks that ride the bus using a vehicle instead. Further posts confirm that!

 

I am downtown 7 days a week and I can tell you all its very grim at the moment. Very, very grim... However we must remain optimistic. From a business perspective if you aren't innovating and or planning to, you will not survive this crisis... god knows it was tough enough already.

 

Good luck to everyone! With twenty years in business management & marketing I am an open book to all...

 

TFord


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#518 spanky123

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Posted 01 July 2020 - 07:16 PM

I think residents of the region would be somewhat shocked at what's going on on those second and third floors of downtown office buildings.

Many are already empty, or will be empty by the end of August.

 

In my office building, a long time renter of a substantial number of square feet of office space is leaving for good, and taking their dozen or so employees with them, never to return.

This is happening to varying degrees in almost every office building in and around the block my office is in.

 

I suspect the impact will be felt downtown sooner than later, initially in the food and beverage establishments who survive from these office workers buying between $10.00 and $20.00 worth of food and beverage from them day in and day out - but eventually creeping out into general retail of all sorts.

Despite Ismo's somewhat positive parking report, I suspect the revenue being generated these days in retail establishments downtown is just a fraction of what it was pre-COVID, and that a few of those parking downtown currently are just there tying up loose ends prior to vacating the core for good.

 

The TC reported today ran an upbeat story on the tech sector and referenced a Viatec survey. https://www.timescol...emic-1.24162276

 

In typical TC style however they left out the bad news from the survey. According to the survey, 60% of tech company staff will continue to work remotely after the pandemic is over. With Viatec stating that 15,000 people work in the tech sector in Victoria, that would equate to nearly 10,000 people.  


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#519 Casual Kev

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Posted 01 July 2020 - 08:35 PM

A lot of organizations are realizing that the vaunted productivity drops from WFH is more of a myth than reality. This is great in the long run and even in the COVID-19 context - businesses can shed overhead while workers can save on transportation, time and food to partially counteract income drops. Of course, those relying on office workers will be hurt badly. Methinks there will be a push to convert office space into residential. 

 

...or maybe this genial city council will see empty offices as the ultimate solution to homelessness. Actually, I rate that as a near certainty. 



#520 exc911ence

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Posted 01 July 2020 - 10:29 PM

And now Calgary is looking at extra taxation for home-based workers....

 

1:08 - 3:55

 

https://www.youtube....h?v=bW3zu4mCjUE



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