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COVID ECONOMICS


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#541 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 08 July 2020 - 12:58 PM

hard to see how tailored brands (Moore’s) is going to survive this.

 

 

U.S. men's clothier Brooks Brothers files for bankruptcy protection New York clothing chain may be oldest fashion brand in the United States

 

https://www.cbc.ca/n...thers-1.5641759

 

 

The 200-year-old company says it's put 40 U.S. presidents in its suits, and survived two world wars and navigated through casual Fridays and a loosening of dress standards even on Wall Street, but the coronavirus pandemic pushed it to seek Chapter 11 protection on Wednesday.

 

Another famed American retailer, Barneys New York, sought bankruptcy protection last year, and it was followed by a slew of others toppled by the pandemic, including Neiman MarcusJ.Crew and J.C. Penney.


Edited by Victoria Watcher, 08 July 2020 - 12:58 PM.


#542 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 08 July 2020 - 01:10 PM

Nearly two million Canadians could be without jobs this year under forecasts released by the federal government in its long-awaited “fiscal snapshot.”

 

The document details how the Trudeau Liberals see the COVID-19 pandemic dragging down the domestic economy and sending the deficit to a historic $343.2 billion.

 

https://www.vicnews....iscal-snapshot/

 

The Liberals have repeatedly promised to use the federal treasury as a financial shield between Canadians and irreparable harm, and the cost of that promise is now at $231.9 billion in direct spending, leading to a deficit comparable only to those seen in the Second World War.

 

_______________________

 

For this calendar year, the government expects the unemployment rate to hit 9.8 per cent, dropping to 7.8 per cent next year based on forecasts by 13 private-sector economists.

 

Although that’s an improvement from the record-high unemployment rate of 13.7 per cent in May for a labour force of just over 19 million, it is still much worse than than the record low of 5.5 per cent pre-pandemic.


Edited by Victoria Watcher, 08 July 2020 - 01:14 PM.


#543 spanky123

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Posted 08 July 2020 - 01:23 PM

^ Bear in mind that if you are collecting the CERB you are not considered unemployed (because you are not looking for work). Good thing since that would add 30% to the unemployment rate! Add in CEWS employees (who only have jobs because the Gov't is paying their salaries) and that adds another 10%.

 

Don't worry though, it is only what we count!



#544 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 08 July 2020 - 03:46 PM

got to love Trudeau’s speech today. paraphrasing:

we decided to go into debt (over COVID) so Canadians would not have to.


I’m sure the masses nodded in agreement.

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 08 July 2020 - 03:47 PM.

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#545 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 08 July 2020 - 04:19 PM

Scheer said Canada is the only G7 country that has had its credit rating cut during the pandemic — one of the U.S.'s big 3 credit agencies downgraded the rating last month — and Canada has the highest unemployment rate among the group of developed nations.

"That should be a real wake-up call for this government," he said, adding that even Greece has more people employed now than Canada.


https://www.cbc.ca/n...ficit-1.5641864
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#546 Matt R.

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Posted 08 July 2020 - 04:57 PM

Sounds like the CERB cheques are buying a lot of hot tubs and big screen TVs.
 
Interesting to note that real estate prices in Toronto and stock prices on Nasdaq are hitting record highs. 
 
Didn't someone back in March warn that the free Government money was just going to create bubbles and that housing and stock prices were the likely recipients? You know, the types of things that WIDEN the prosperity gap and help make the rich richer. Oh yeah right, that was ME!


Cerb isn’t buying anyone a $14,000 hot tub and another couple grand for a pad, and then the electrical, that’s for sure. The story I’ve gotten is that production is way down due to covid, and demand is up a little.

No worries, we found a super nice used one locally, now to pour the 10x10 pad :)

Matt.

#547 Wayne

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Posted 08 July 2020 - 07:01 PM

Cerb isn’t buying anyone a $14,000 hot tub and another couple grand for a pad, and then the electrical, that’s for sure. The story I’ve gotten is that production is way down due to covid, and demand is up a little.

No worries, we found a super nice used one locally, now to pour the 10x10 pad :)

Matt.

 

I have a family member that runs a Jacuzzi shop. He said they stopped production, but have recently just started up production. 

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#548 exc911ence

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Posted 08 July 2020 - 07:26 PM

got to love Trudeau’s speech today. paraphrasing:

we decided to go into debt (over COVID) so Canadians would not have to.


I’m sure the masses nodded in agreement.

 

Canadians love free government money! Free money! Free! 

 

Where does the government get their money again?

 

Don't ask stupid questions, they're talking about free money! Free! Free! Free! 


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#549 Matt R.

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Posted 08 July 2020 - 07:39 PM

I have a family member that runs a Jacuzzi shop. He said they stopped production, but have recently just started up production.


Yah that’s what I was told too! Production was halved or less. Anyways, I started calling around asking about a new Coast hot tub, LOL, $16-20k to start.. haha.

Matt.

#550 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 10 July 2020 - 05:01 AM

June job creation blows past estimates

 

The Canadian economy added 952,900 jobs in June, far above the average estimate for a gain of 700,000. The unemployment rate fell to 12.3 per cent from 13.7 per cent in May. "With these two consecutive increases, employment in June was 1.8 million lower than in February," Statistics Canada says.


Edited by Victoria Watcher, 10 July 2020 - 05:01 AM.


#551 spanky123

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Posted 10 July 2020 - 07:31 AM

^ Remember that people collecting the CERB and CEWS are considered "not to be looking for work" so they are not counted as unemployed.  Add those people in and we are at 40% un/under employment.


Edited by spanky123, 10 July 2020 - 07:31 AM.

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#552 Ismo07

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Posted 10 July 2020 - 09:09 AM

^ Remember that people collecting the CERB and CEWS are considered "not to be looking for work" so they are not counted as unemployed.  Add those people in and we are at 40% un/under employment.

 

Is that true?  So when all these people applied for CERB those aren't counted as unemployed?  Where did all the extra numbers for unemployed come from cause you didn't have to apply for EI, only CERB.  I don't believe you are correct here Spanky.



#553 spanky123

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Posted 10 July 2020 - 10:04 AM

Is that true?  So when all these people applied for CERB those aren't counted as unemployed?  Where did all the extra numbers for unemployed come from cause you didn't have to apply for EI, only CERB.  I don't believe you are correct here Spanky.

 

There are 8.1M people collecting CERB which is 40% of the workforce. Unemployment can't be 11% if they are counted.



#554 Mike K.

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Posted 10 July 2020 - 11:01 AM

You can work and collect CERB, though. You just have to be earning $1,000 or less (for now).


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#555 spanky123

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Posted 10 July 2020 - 11:34 AM

You can work and collect CERB, though. You just have to be earning $1,000 or less (for now).

 

Sure and how many people are doing that and considering themselves "employed" when asked during the survey?



#556 Mike K.

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Posted 10 July 2020 - 11:39 AM

I would imagine they would consider themselves employed. They are working, and likely choosing to work less than they could so as not to cross over into an ineligibility scenario.

Once CERB ends there will be a huge shift to seeking full time and additional part time work. Currently the majority of jobs impacted are low wage and/or seasonal jobs that are in ample supply but in low demand, or are only available for one or two seasons a year.

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#557 spanky123

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Posted 10 July 2020 - 12:00 PM

The majority of people impacted now are low wage because the CEWS is paying for everyone else. If you recall, lots of large companies had announced layoffs but then retreated once the CEWS was announced. Once that program ends you will see a big uptick in middle and higher income earners losing out.

 

The other shoe to drop will be from Governments, Universities and other taxpayer funded organizations which have skated by without layoffs even though the majority of their staff are underemployed. As funds dry up those will be the next tier to go.

 

A lot of this will depend on how severe the second wave is and whether a full lockdown is again imposed. Looks like Sweden has reached herd immunity with new cases and deaths dropping sharply and the US may only be another 4-6 weeks out. That may help us.


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#558 Matt R.

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Posted 10 July 2020 - 12:12 PM

What is this “full lockdown” you mention? Did I sleep through the first one?

Matt.
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#559 On the Level

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Posted 10 July 2020 - 12:13 PM

^ Agreed.  

 

The CoV doesn't appear to be preparing themselves for the finances for what is to come.  They are spending revenue that came in pre-Covid instead of trying to soften the blow for their employees next year.  Does anyone know how much the new Bike Lanes are funded separately through grants and how much of CoV taxpayer funds are being committed to this?

 

As per Sweden......it matters less how many initial deaths there were due to the approach they took and more about the total numbermthrough the life of Covid. They may well end up with fewer deaths than us and haven't sacrificed their economy.


Edited by On the Level, 10 July 2020 - 12:14 PM.

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#560 Casual Kev

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Posted 10 July 2020 - 01:30 PM

The majority of people impacted now are low wage because the CEWS is paying for everyone else. If you recall, lots of large companies had announced layoffs but then retreated once the CEWS was announced. Once that program ends you will see a big uptick in middle and higher income earners losing out.

 

The other shoe to drop will be from Governments, Universities and other taxpayer funded organizations which have skated by without layoffs even though the majority of their staff are underemployed. As funds dry up those will be the next tier to go.

 

A lot of this will depend on how severe the second wave is and whether a full lockdown is again imposed. Looks like Sweden has reached herd immunity with new cases and deaths dropping sharply and the US may only be another 4-6 weeks out. That may help us.

 

 

Sweden, and pretty much no one in the world, is close to achieving herd immunity. Stockholm, which is Sweden's epicenter, had reported about 14% of the city's population had COVID-19 antibodies. Bergamo, the epicenter of Italy, did report about 57% but the prediction from scientists is that due to the infectiousness of the virus we'd be looking at 80%+ percent of a population needing antibodies to achieve herd immunity. And Bergamo reported 3,000 COVID-19 deaths out of a population of 1 million... the equivalent in Canada would be over 100,000 deaths and we haven't even broken 9,000 yet. It's effectively suicide to hope herd immunity will do the work on its own. 


Edited by Casual Kev, 10 July 2020 - 01:31 PM.

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