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Post COVID Economy


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#1 VIResident

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Posted 11 October 2020 - 07:37 AM

Perhaps this topic will help some to anticipate, and, tease out upcoming opportunities and steer clear of pitfalls.

 

I'll start out with this report.

 

 

The pandemic has caused the world’s economies to diverge  But its long-term impact will be even more far-reaching. - The Economist

https://www.economis...mies-to-diverge

 

....February the coronavirus pandemic struck the world economy with the biggest shock since the second world war. Lockdowns and a slump in consumer spending led to a labour-market implosion in which the equivalent of nearly 500m full-time jobs disappeared almost overnight. World trade shuddered as factories shut down and countries closed their borders. An even deeper economic catastrophe was avoided thanks only to unprecedented interventions in financial markets by central banks, government aid to workers and failing firms, and the expansion of budget deficits to near-wartime levels.

 

As a recovery takes place, however, huge gaps between the performance of countries are opening up—which could yet recast the world’s economic order. By the end of next year, according to forecasts by the oecd, America’s economy will be the same size as it was in 2019 but China’s will be 10% larger. Europe will still languish beneath its pre-pandemic level of output and could do so for several years—a fate it may share with Japan, which is suffering a demographic squeeze. It is not just the biggest economic blocs that are growing at different speeds. In the second quarter of this year, according to ubs, a bank, the distribution of growth rates across 50 economies was at its widest for at least 40 years.

 

 
 

 

and

 

https://www.investme...onomy_270853504

 

 

 


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#2 Mike K.

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Posted 11 October 2020 - 07:52 AM

The WHO now says lockdowns are bad.

https://uk.reuters.c...o-idUKKBN26U1ZW

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#3 VIResident

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Posted 11 October 2020 - 07:58 AM

The WHO now says lockdowns are bad.

https://uk.reuters.c...o-idUKKBN26U1ZW

They are likely to happen all the same.  Setting aside all the 'stuff' around if they should or should not - how about anticipating?  Future lockdowns, what gaps are in business? even your household inventory etc.

What can businesses pre-plan? or, what business should one be in? etc. etc. 



#4 dasmo

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Posted 11 October 2020 - 08:23 AM

How about we just don’t listen to our tax administrators when they try to become our dictators?
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#5 dasmo

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Posted 11 October 2020 - 08:34 AM

If we are talking businesses how about a constitutional law company to support legal challenges? Like Rocco’s? Make it a nation wide chain. I hear he is going to be selling legal kits soon for self directed cases. https://www.constitu...ightscentre.ca/

#6 spanky123

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Posted 11 October 2020 - 11:45 AM

The WHO now says lockdowns are bad.

https://uk.reuters.c...o-idUKKBN26U1ZW

 

They must have finally started reading VV! The countries that avoided mass lockdowns now have the most robust economies and will for the next decade at least. Although many Canadians are quite happy to collect their $2,000 a month UBI and could care less about the $1.2T being added to the debt, the chickens are coming home to roost. 


Edited by spanky123, 11 October 2020 - 11:46 AM.


#7 spanky123

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Posted 11 October 2020 - 11:49 AM

 

....February the coronavirus pandemic struck the world economy with the biggest shock since the second world war. Lockdowns and a slump in consumer spending led to a labour-market implosion in which the equivalent of nearly 500m full-time jobs disappeared almost overnight. World trade shuddered as factories shut down and countries closed their borders. An even deeper economic catastrophe was avoided thanks only to unprecedented interventions in financial markets by central banks, government aid to workers and failing firms, and the expansion of budget deficits to near-wartime levels.

 

As a recovery takes place, however, huge gaps between the performance of countries are opening up—which could yet recast the world’s economic order. By the end of next year, according to forecasts by the oecd, America’s economy will be the same size as it was in 2019 but China’s will be 10% larger. Europe will still languish beneath its pre-pandemic level of output and could do so for several years—a fate it may share with Japan, which is suffering a demographic squeeze. It is not just the biggest economic blocs that are growing at different speeds. In the second quarter of this year, according to ubs, a bank, the distribution of growth rates across 50 economies was at its widest for at least 40 years.

 

Funny that when I said back in March that China was going to come out of this with the world's largest robust economy I was scoffed at. The second prediction I made alongside that was that the US would not permit it to continue.



#8 dasmo

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Posted 11 October 2020 - 12:14 PM

And Canada has a contract with China giving them preferential treatment when it comes to purchasing Canadian assets and the ability protect those assets on our soil. The contract also stipulates that if we want to nationalize said assets we will need to compensate China for them. IF we are able to legally.

#9 Ismo07

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Posted 13 October 2020 - 08:33 AM

Funny that when I said back in March that China was going to come out of this with the world's largest robust economy I was scoffed at. The second prediction I made alongside that was that the US would not permit it to continue.

 

You mean China, which had the most forced lockdown right at the beginning?  Right above this post you said that countries that didn't lockdown have the most robust economies?  I'm not sure what the definition of lockdown is I guess but to me I never felt locked down cause restaurants and most stores closed for a short period.  Would you say that Canada locked down?  


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#10 dasmo

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Posted 13 October 2020 - 08:43 AM

I anyone is interested in our contract with China it’s here https://www.internat...x.aspx?lang=eng
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#11 VIResident

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Posted 23 October 2020 - 05:27 AM

Victoria economy could rebound next year: Conference Board

 

After a brutal 2020, tinged by the economic turmoil caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, Victoria’s economy is expected to grow by 6.6 per cent next year and another three per cent in 2022 according to the Conference Board of Canada.

 

 

In its most recent major cities survey, the board reported Victoria is on track to see its economy contract by 4.4 per cent this year, a stark contrast to the average growth of 3.5 per cent annually over the previous three years.

 

“......The city’s public administration sector, which accounts for almost 20 per cent of the city’s total output has partly insulated the region from the impacts of COVID-19 this year,” it said.

 

https://www.timescol...8xBKJd6RFAwzMks


Edited by VIResident, 23 October 2020 - 05:28 AM.


#12 VIResident

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Posted 23 October 2020 - 05:32 AM

Technology will help restaurants, retail stores, accomodations, co-working space etc.:

 

 

Boll & Branch Becomes First Retail Store to Install New, State-of-the-Art Far-UVC Sanitizing Technology

https://www.globenew...Technology.html

 

THE BLIND HORSE BECOMES FIRST RESTAURANT IN THE UNITED STATES TO INSTALL FAR-UVC LIGHT TECHNOLOGY FOR REAL-TIME VIRUS MITIGATION AND INDOOR SANITIZATION

https://www.globenew...NITIZATION.html

 

From today's TC:


"The report said the accommodation and foodservices sector have been hit hardest by the pandemic, falling 58 per cent in the second quarter."

 

Edited by VIResident, 23 October 2020 - 05:34 AM.


#13 dasmo

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Posted 23 October 2020 - 05:47 AM

Hit by the pandemic measures. Just to clarify.

#14 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 23 October 2020 - 05:58 AM

the same report says victoria has been somewhat shielded since 20% of us work for "the government".



#15 Mike K.

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Posted 23 October 2020 - 07:46 AM

Do we ever go back and actually measure what the growth has been? We see these conference board articles all the time but I don't recall the TC going back a year later and comparing what happened with what was forecasted.


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#16 spanky123

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Posted 23 October 2020 - 08:40 AM

Do we ever go back and actually measure what the growth has been? We see these conference board articles all the time but I don't recall the TC going back a year later and comparing what happened with what was forecasted.

 

Good reason for that. The Conference Board has always produced happy, feel good reports that in my experience and opinion very rarely reflect actual performance.

 

Years ago I noted on VV how BC's preferred banking partner's forecasts became much rosier after they were selected by the Province.



#17 VIResident

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Posted 20 December 2020 - 06:57 AM

2021 Predictions for the economy, politics, technology, and more.

Give it a whirl! 

 

What will entertainment look like?

Price of oil?

What about sports?

What will Jeff Bezo's do?

Google?

Anti-Vax vs. Vaxxers - who will win?

The hottest year yet? (Environment)

Will the internet go private?

How will the region's tech sector do?  

Tourism? good, bad?

Cruise ships coming back to dock?

What will local, provincial or fed poli look like?

Ha! what about our local taxes? up, down, same?

How many spots will be vacated at each of the 13 muni council tables in 2021?


Edited by VIResident, 20 December 2020 - 07:04 AM.


#18 VIResident

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Posted 20 December 2020 - 08:04 AM

2021 Predictions for the economy, politics, technology, and more.

 

Under 'MORE' - will 5.5 be high or low for south island? 

Canadian home prices should rise 5.5% in 2021, Royal LePage predicts

"....The forecast is at odds with others, including government-backed mortgage insurer Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, which predicts price decline in 2021, and some of the country’s biggest banks, which foresee more muted growth." https://www.theglobe...epage-predicts/


Edited by VIResident, 20 December 2020 - 08:05 AM.


#19 max.bravo

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Posted 20 December 2020 - 08:42 AM

2021 will be “post-covid?” I doubt it. Restrictions will continue into at least summer.

#20 Mike K.

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Posted 20 December 2020 - 11:12 AM

CMHC predicted a drop in 2020, didn’t it?

God help us if the government can’t even get it right, and they’re the ones meddling in the markets.
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