About half the value of Canada’s output in mining and oil and gas is exported to the U.S. and about a third of manufacturing, though the percentage is higher in the auto sector at about 50 per cent and in aerospace at 40 per cent.
Oil and gas and the auto industry have attracted the most attention amid trade concerns and are most dependent on the U.S. for exports, but they are also most likely to be exempted, said Desjardins.
America doesn’t produce enough crude oil to meet its needs and gets 58 per cent of its imported oil from Canada. Slapping tariffs on this product would risk raising prices which goes against Trump’s promise to bring fuel costs down.
The auto industry is highly integrated, meaning that exporter and importer are often the same parent company. Half of the General Motors Co. pickup trucks sold in the U.S., for example, are imported from Canada and Mexico, said the report. If their costs go up, these multinational giants are likely to lobby for exemptions.
The primary metals sector, food and beverage manufacturing, chemicals, machinery and aerospace, however, are not so lucky and Desjardins considers them most vulnerable to tariff pain.
Canada exports about 41 per cent of its primary metal production to the U.S. and Quebec exports 54 per cent, representing in dollars about $44 billion and $16 billion, respectively, said the report. Though American does not produce enough of these products to meet its needs, it can get them through other foreign suppliers. Desjardins calculates that if tariffs reduce demand in this sector by 10 per cent, industry revenues would slump 4.1 per cent in Canada and 5.4 per cent in Quebec.
Other sectors are vulnerable because America already makes enough of their products on its own. This is true for lumber, transportation equipment other than autos, paper and cardboard, agricultural food and petroleum-based products.
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Edited by Victoria Watcher, 20 January 2025 - 06:29 AM.