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The Victoria Economy Thread


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#721 Mike K.

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Posted 06 December 2018 - 11:22 AM

So 1-in-5 "retirees" being in the labour force and children working at your local fast food restaurant are just a figment of our imagination?


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#722 jonny

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Posted 06 December 2018 - 11:57 AM

So 1-in-5 "retirees" being in the labour force and children working at your local fast food restaurant are just a figment of our imagination?

 

Is this supposed to relate to my post somehow?


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#723 tjv

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Posted 06 December 2018 - 12:49 PM

So 1-in-5 "retirees" being in the labour force and children working at your local fast food restaurant are just a figment of our imagination?

What I am not sure is out of that, how many are working because they want to/bored or because they need the money.  Its probably 50/50 IMO


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#724 spanky123

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Posted 06 December 2018 - 12:58 PM

So 1-in-5 "retirees" being in the labour force and children working at your local fast food restaurant are just a figment of our imagination?

 

I think what he is referring to is that Statscan only counts people who are actively looking for work in its counts. If you have a large population of retired folks it tends to drive down the overall unemployment rates as they are not counted as unemployed.


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#725 spanky123

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Posted 08 March 2019 - 01:56 PM

No doubt the TC will print this tomorrow as fantastic economic news so I thought that I would comment first. Victoria's unemployment rate dropped to 3.2% from 3.3% last month which continue to be amoungst the lowest in the country. Vancouver's rate increased to 4.9% from 4.7%.

 

On the surface that appears to be great news until you look at the data. In the past 6 months, the number of people working in Vancouver has increased by 50K while the number of people working in Victoria has decreased by 14K which is enormous given our population. In fact, Vancouver Island is the only region that has fewer people in the workforce today than during the last 2 years. 

 

https://www2.gov.bc....rket-statistics



#726 Mike K.

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Posted 08 March 2019 - 01:57 PM

Wow.

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#727 spanky123

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Posted 08 March 2019 - 02:05 PM

Found another source that indicates that the drop in employment is due to a big drop in participation rate. About 61% of the 15+ population in Victoria is available for work compared to about 65% provincially. 



#728 Nparker

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Posted 08 March 2019 - 02:12 PM

Younger Boomers and a few older Gen X-ers are retiring like crazy from the BC Public Service.



#729 lanforod

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Posted 08 March 2019 - 02:56 PM

Found another source that indicates that the drop in employment is due to a big drop in participation rate. About 61% of the 15+ population in Victoria is available for work compared to about 65% provincially. 

 

If you factor in average age, I suspect it balances out.



#730 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 11 March 2019 - 04:50 AM

Figures from Statistics Canada show the value and number of building permits in Greater Victoria have dropped by almost 29 per cent, from January 2018 to January 2019. Value-wise, they dropped to $110.2 million (January 2019) to $154.2 million (January 2018).



https://www.vicnews....eater-victoria/

#731 spanky123

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Posted 11 March 2019 - 07:38 AM

Figures from Statistics Canada show the value and number of building permits in Greater Victoria have dropped by almost 29 per cent, from January 2018 to January 2019. Value-wise, they dropped to $110.2 million (January 2019) to $154.2 million (January 2018).



https://www.vicnews....eater-victoria/

 

Not a surprise, I think that most industry people have been forecasting a slowing of construction activity. 



#732 spanky123

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Posted 11 March 2019 - 07:40 AM

Younger Boomers and a few older Gen X-ers are retiring like crazy from the BC Public Service.

 

Could be part of it. I suspect the larger component is working people and families leaving Victoria to find work elsewhere. What we don't know is if that is because of a lack of affordable housing (and will likely reverse as supply opens up) or because people are finding better paying and more senior/challenging roles elsewhere (in which case developers might start to get worried).



#733 Mike K.

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Posted 11 March 2019 - 07:42 AM

There’s been so much construction activity on the south Island that permitting values were bound to fall. The big players will stay busy for a while yet and current projects remain years-long commitments.
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#734 lanforod

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Posted 11 March 2019 - 07:44 AM

Could be part of it. I suspect the larger component is working people and families leaving Victoria to find work elsewhere. What we don't know is if that is because of a lack of affordable housing (and will likely reverse as supply opens up) or because people are finding better paying and more senior/challenging roles elsewhere (in which case developers might start to get worried).

 

I hear more about people moving here (from Vancouver typically), rather than leaving.



#735 spanky123

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Posted 11 March 2019 - 08:17 AM

I hear more about people moving here (from Vancouver typically), rather than leaving.

 

I would be the first to acknowledge that 2 months doesn't make a trend but the statscan results are saying that if you are right, it is seniors who are moving here and working folks that are moving out.

 

Which by the way is exactly what the CoV OCP forecasted.


Edited by spanky123, 11 March 2019 - 08:18 AM.


#736 jonny

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Posted 11 March 2019 - 11:19 AM

More people are working on Vancouver Island than ever before. We have 11,600 more workers than in 2008 and 30,100 more workers than 2016 and 44,600 more workers than the bottom of the trough in 2014.

 

2019-03-11 12_15_01-Microsoft Excel - Employment and Unemployment Rate by Industry and Development R.png


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#737 jonny

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Posted 11 March 2019 - 11:25 AM

According to StatsCan, the Victoria CMA had 20,900 more workers in 2018 than in the trough in 2014 (a 12% increase). Which roughly trends with our population increase, by the way. 

 

2019-03-11 12_21_02-Employment by industry, annual, census metropolitan areas.png


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#738 Mike K.

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Posted 11 March 2019 - 11:26 AM

This is very helpful, jonny.


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#739 spanky123

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Posted 11 March 2019 - 11:48 AM

This is very helpful, jonny.

 

And ignores population growth. I was referring to participation rate which is a percentage of workers in the workforce. 

 

Technically every day of the week we should be setting a new record for the total number of workers in the workforce!


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#740 Nparker

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Posted 11 March 2019 - 12:46 PM

...Technically every day of the week we should be setting a new record for the total number of workers in the workforce!

Should we? Even if more people retire than take up vacant positions?



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