Jump to content

      













Photo

The Victoria Economy Thread


  • Please log in to reply
750 replies to this topic

#741 jonny

jonny
  • Member
  • 8,963 posts

Posted 11 March 2019 - 12:49 PM

Technically the local economy is not always growing and there are a multitude of variables, such as the discouraged worker effect.

 

Anyway, the long term data suggests working people have been coming to Victoria at a rate of over 5,000 people per year. The growth roughly corresponds to our population growth (which was roughly 5,000 additional people in the Victoria CMA per year, as per the 2016 Census). Our participation rate is right in the range of historical levels. 

 

There are lots of ways to look at labour force data, and no single metric is perfect. Unfortunately, the economists have not come up with a perfect metric. Social and demographic factors have massive impacts on the participation rate on top of discouraged workers and students. Interesting, youth and the elderly both have downward effects on the labour force participation rate as both groups have lower than average rates (I believe StatsCan starts counting at the age of 15).

 

Going back to 2001, the average labour force participation rate for the Victoria CMA is 64.26. Over the last 12 months, it's 64.52. There is a recent downward trend since September. Did working people start moving away en masse in the last 5 months?  

 

Victoria.png

 

Canada.png



#742 Nparker

Nparker
  • Member
  • 22,205 posts

Posted 11 March 2019 - 12:54 PM

"...Lies, damned lies, and statistics"  ;)

- as popularized by Mark Twain 



#743 Mike K.

Mike K.
  • Administrator
  • 47,034 posts

Posted 11 March 2019 - 01:10 PM

How do typical Septembers look on such a graph when last in line? That's typically when the tourism industry winds down and many jobs disappear.


Know it all.
Citified.ca is Victoria's most comprehensive research resource for new-build homes and commercial spaces.


#744 jonny

jonny
  • Member
  • 8,963 posts

Posted 11 March 2019 - 02:37 PM

How do typical Septembers look on such a graph when last in line? That's typically when the tourism industry winds down and many jobs disappear.

 

88.png



#745 spanky123

spanky123
  • Member
  • 10,932 posts

Posted 11 March 2019 - 02:43 PM

^ That is my point, the current participation rate is the 2nd lowest it has been since 2001. Why we don't know.



#746 jonny

jonny
  • Member
  • 8,963 posts

Posted 11 March 2019 - 02:58 PM

^ That is my point, the current participation rate is the 2nd lowest it has been since 2001. Why we don't know.

 

It's the lowest since July 2015, but I count 25 other months that are 62.2 or lower going back to March 2001. 



#747 spanky123

spanky123
  • Member
  • 10,932 posts

Posted 11 March 2019 - 03:32 PM

It's the lowest since July 2015, but I count 25 other months that are 62.2 or lower going back to March 2001. 

 

Where the unemployment rate was close to 3.2%?



#748 G-Man

G-Man

    Senior Case Officer

  • Moderator
  • 12,565 posts

Posted 11 March 2019 - 08:09 PM

Jonny, stop trying to spoil the negative Victoria sucks attitude on this thread.
  • Matt R. and jonny like this

Visit my blog at: https://www.sidewalkingvictoria.com 

 

It has a whole new look!

 


#749 spanky123

spanky123
  • Member
  • 10,932 posts

Posted 12 March 2019 - 10:37 AM

Jonny, stop trying to spoil the negative Victoria sucks attitude on this thread.


Nobody is saying Victoria sucks. I am questioning whether’s council’s policy shift to mandate market rentals over condos makes sense given that the data seems to be supporting the OCP forecast. If they are wrong, the net impact could be a sharp increase in housing prices which is the opposite of what they are trying to accomplish.

Edited by spanky123, 12 March 2019 - 10:37 AM.

  • Mike K. likes this

#750 Nparker

Nparker
  • Member
  • 22,205 posts

Posted 12 March 2019 - 10:45 AM

...If they are wrong, the net impact could be a sharp increase in housing prices which is the opposite of what they are trying to accomplish.

It wouldn't be the first time that Council's policies have had unintended consequences.



#751 spanky123

spanky123
  • Member
  • 10,932 posts

Posted 05 April 2019 - 04:14 PM

March employment numbers are out. Yet again we have the contradictory message of a record low unemployment rate (2.8%) with the loss of 500 jobs and more and more people leaving the workforce.

 

https://www2.gov.bc....rket-statistics



 



0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users