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The Victoria Economy Thread


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#741 jonny

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Posted 11 March 2019 - 12:49 PM

Technically the local economy is not always growing and there are a multitude of variables, such as the discouraged worker effect.

 

Anyway, the long term data suggests working people have been coming to Victoria at a rate of over 5,000 people per year. The growth roughly corresponds to our population growth (which was roughly 5,000 additional people in the Victoria CMA per year, as per the 2016 Census). Our participation rate is right in the range of historical levels. 

 

There are lots of ways to look at labour force data, and no single metric is perfect. Unfortunately, the economists have not come up with a perfect metric. Social and demographic factors have massive impacts on the participation rate on top of discouraged workers and students. Interesting, youth and the elderly both have downward effects on the labour force participation rate as both groups have lower than average rates (I believe StatsCan starts counting at the age of 15).

 

Going back to 2001, the average labour force participation rate for the Victoria CMA is 64.26. Over the last 12 months, it's 64.52. There is a recent downward trend since September. Did working people start moving away en masse in the last 5 months?  

 

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#742 Nparker

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Posted 11 March 2019 - 12:54 PM

"...Lies, damned lies, and statistics"  ;)

- as popularized by Mark Twain 



#743 Mike K.

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Posted 11 March 2019 - 01:10 PM

How do typical Septembers look on such a graph when last in line? That's typically when the tourism industry winds down and many jobs disappear.


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#744 jonny

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Posted 11 March 2019 - 02:37 PM

How do typical Septembers look on such a graph when last in line? That's typically when the tourism industry winds down and many jobs disappear.

 

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#745 spanky123

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Posted 11 March 2019 - 02:43 PM

^ That is my point, the current participation rate is the 2nd lowest it has been since 2001. Why we don't know.



#746 jonny

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Posted 11 March 2019 - 02:58 PM

^ That is my point, the current participation rate is the 2nd lowest it has been since 2001. Why we don't know.

 

It's the lowest since July 2015, but I count 25 other months that are 62.2 or lower going back to March 2001. 



#747 spanky123

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Posted 11 March 2019 - 03:32 PM

It's the lowest since July 2015, but I count 25 other months that are 62.2 or lower going back to March 2001. 

 

Where the unemployment rate was close to 3.2%?



#748 G-Man

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Posted 11 March 2019 - 08:09 PM

Jonny, stop trying to spoil the negative Victoria sucks attitude on this thread.
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Visit my blog at: https://www.sidewalkingvictoria.com 

 

It has a whole new look!

 


#749 spanky123

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Posted 12 March 2019 - 10:37 AM

Jonny, stop trying to spoil the negative Victoria sucks attitude on this thread.


Nobody is saying Victoria sucks. I am questioning whether’s council’s policy shift to mandate market rentals over condos makes sense given that the data seems to be supporting the OCP forecast. If they are wrong, the net impact could be a sharp increase in housing prices which is the opposite of what they are trying to accomplish.

Edited by spanky123, 12 March 2019 - 10:37 AM.

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#750 Nparker

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Posted 12 March 2019 - 10:45 AM

...If they are wrong, the net impact could be a sharp increase in housing prices which is the opposite of what they are trying to accomplish.

It wouldn't be the first time that Council's policies have had unintended consequences.



#751 spanky123

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Posted 05 April 2019 - 04:14 PM

March employment numbers are out. Yet again we have the contradictory message of a record low unemployment rate (2.8%) with the loss of 500 jobs and more and more people leaving the workforce.

 

https://www2.gov.bc....rket-statistics



#752 spanky123

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Posted 14 May 2019 - 12:50 PM

Victoria did not win one of the $10M prizes in the Smart City challenge announced today in Ottawa.

 

Very unfortunate as I speculate that this will mean the end of the South Island Prosperity Project and U-Bike.



#753 Nparker

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Posted 14 May 2019 - 01:09 PM

Victoria did not win one of the $10M prizes in the Smart City challenge announced today in Ottawa....

So will Lisa Helps be paying back the cost of her trip to Ottawa?


Edited by Nparker, 14 May 2019 - 01:10 PM.


#754 spanky123

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Posted 14 May 2019 - 01:13 PM

So will Lisa Helps be paying back the cost of her trip to Ottawa?

 

Lisa did the presentation today along with all of the other cities. Each had 5 minutes to promote their plans.

 

I understand that as Mayor she felt it was her job to promote the city, but the reality is that SIPP staff, its board and its smart cities team did the proposal. It would have been nice if the Mayor had let the CEO or other team member present or at least co-present as other cities did.



#755 Nparker

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Posted 14 May 2019 - 01:20 PM

Lisa did the presentation today along with all of the other cities. Each had 5 minutes to promote their plans...

It's not like the winners were only decided upon after the speeches were made today. Was there any practical reason why she had to be there in person? Aren't we living in a time of  :eek:  :eek: CLIMATE EMERGENCY :eek:  :eek: ?? This sort of travel should be curtailed. 



#756 spanky123

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Posted 14 May 2019 - 01:26 PM

It's not like the winners were only decided upon after the speeches were made today. Was there any practical reason why she had to be there in person? Aren't we living in a time of  :eek:  :eek: CLIMATE EMERGENCY :eek:  :eek: ?? This sort of travel should be curtailed. 

 

The info I have is that the City felt very strongly that they were going to win one of the $10M prizes. I can see why the Mayor would want to be part of that.

 

Since the decision would have been made long before the speeches, it would have been nice to have staff present even though they might not have been as polished.


Edited by spanky123, 14 May 2019 - 01:26 PM.


#757 Mike K.

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Posted 14 May 2019 - 01:27 PM

Did the SIPP proposal include elements that involved other municipalities?

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#758 Nparker

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Posted 14 May 2019 - 01:34 PM

...Since the decision would have been made long before the speeches, it would have been nice to have staff present...

That's my point. Advise the winning cities in advance and their representatives can appear in person. There was no legitimate reason for Lisa Helps to spend my tax dollars to attend this little junket.
 

:eek:  :eek: CLIMATE EMERGENCY :eek:  :eek:



#759 spanky123

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Posted 14 May 2019 - 01:34 PM

Did the SIPP proposal include elements that involved other municipalities?

 

Yes. The proposal is here. http://www.southisla...rship_final.pdf

 

SIPP gets close to a million dollars a year from varies stakeholders which are largely taxpayer funded.



#760 Mike K.

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Posted 14 May 2019 - 01:36 PM

Interesting. So on behalf of the SIPP team, and on behalf of all of the other groups that put money towards the organization, only the mayor of Victoria presented the proposal? I would have imagined other mayors would have wanted to travel to this event as well if they felt there was merit for them to do so.

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