73 replies to this topic

[Sparky]

Michael Smyth of the Province agrees with Bernard.

http://www.theprovin...8227/story.html

[Bernard]

With numbers at 4151 after two weeks, the campaign is in real trouble. As far as I understand is that they have managed to canvas a lot of the riding already.

The people that are angry and motivated have all signed the recall petition. These 4151 are the low hanging fruit, the easy ones to get. They are barely over 1/4 of the way to the minimum needed and they will need some margin to ensure success.

The recall campaign is doing better than the Anti-HST petition did in the first two weeks. It took the Anti-HST petition four weeks to reach 4830, but that number is actually low because the way the campaign was run in this region it could take several weeks for a signature to reach the tally.

The Anti-HST petition managed collect more than 10,000 signatures in only four ridings in BC. The most they collected in 90 days was 11,512. The highest percentage of voters they managed was 34.7%, not high enough for a recall.

[Bingo]

Why would they want to report the number of people who have signed the recall petiton? There is some incentive for the campaigners to keep pressing ahead if they think they are behind in the tally. The number of people wanting to volunteer also increases as time goes on. Having worked on the bridge referendum, I know the momentum gathered steam as the campaign progressed, and I don't think they are in trouble at this point.

[Bernard]

Why would they want to report the number of people who have signed the recall petiton? There is some incentive for the campaigners to keep pressing ahead if they think they are behind in the tally. The number of people wanting to volunteer also increases as time goes on. Having worked on the bridge referendum, I know the momentum gathered steam as the campaign progressed, and I don't think they are in trouble at this point.

Very different type of petition and it was not well organized at the start. The threshold was also much, much lower. The bridge petition did not do as well as the Anti-HST petition.

Working harder is not an option for the recall campaign, they are working as hard as possible already. They had more volunteers ready to go than the bridge referendum petition. They have gone door to door to enough houses that they should be at around 8,000 now.

Getting 10-15% is not hard, getting 20-25% is hard, getting more than 40% takes unique circumstances in which all the public wants the MLA gone. This has only happened with Paul Reitsma. The current recall petition is not getting the sort of local traction because it is seen by many as being pushed by the NDP.

The people in Oak Bay Gordon Head are not keen on recall it seems

[Bingo]

Very different type of petition and it was not well organized at the start. The threshold was also much, much lower. The bridge petition did not do as well as the Anti-HST petition.

Unless you were part of the core group at the counter-petition campaign office every day, you would not know how well organized it was.

The petition passed the requirement of 6343, or 10% of the electors, by 3529 signatures. This equates to 15.4% of the potential electors, and well over half the turnout in the 2008 municipal election (27%)

I know of people living in the riding who have not yet had a knock on their door, as the campaigning is on hold until after Christmas.

The Ida Chong supporters are the ones pushing the the blame onto the NDP for the recall, in an attempt to gain some ground during the meltdown leading to the Liberal / NDP leadership races.

[Bernard]

Five weeks in and 25 days to go and the recall has not yet reached 7000 signatures. This places them far behind where they need to be and realistically no chance to get the signatures needed.

At this point it seems everyone has been reached in Oak Bay Gordon Head, but there is no strong ground swell to recall Ida Chong. Final total of the campaign is likely to be about 10,000, almost 6000 short of the needed number

[George]

http://thetyee.ca/Op...ongRecallWrong/

[Bingo]

CHONG RECALL CAMPAIGN ADMITS DEFEAT

The group campaigning to recall Ida Chong is admitting defeat.

I noticed them parked at the side of the road attmpting to get drivers to pull over and sign the petition, but I know they didn't make much of an effort to knock on doors in my neighbourhood.

[yodsaker]

If the campaign wakes her up as to what her job is then it will not have failed.

[Bernard]

The obvious recall target in BC at the moment is Kash Heed but there he is not on the radar of the recall campaign organizers.

interestingly, of the five campaigns underway, or soon to be underway, four of them are MLAs that are supporting George Abbott. Given that there are easier targets for recall, choosing Abbott supporting MLAs is an odd decision and I do not know what it means.

[Bingo]

Having worked on the Johnson Street Bridge petition, I don't buy the notion that getting recall signatures was hampered by Christmas. That was one of the most productive times for the bridge campaign as people were out of their homes doing their shopping, and were in a festive mood. Likewise we recruited tenants in some of the buildings to canvass where we could not gain access. I only saw recall canvassers a couple of times in the Oak Bay Village. During the bridge petition there were at least two people in the Cook Street Village every day during December. They also were out for one week of freezing temperatures.

Read;
Recall campaign releases numbers, admits defeat

Organizers blame Christmas holidays, bad weather and difficulty reaching condo/apartment dwellers

Read more: http://www.timescolonist.com/news/Recall+campaign+releases+numbers+admits+defeat/4218663/story.html#ixzz1CxWOD0VD

[Bernard]

There have been three serious recalls in the past in BC that did much better than this one and had fewer canvassers. In one case the MLA resigned, in another they were 600 signatures short, and in the last they achieved more than enough but had a huge number of errors in their signatures.

It is quick possible to recall an MLA in BC as those three campaigns show. It is not easy, but it certainly not impossible.

Given the effort of the Oak Bay Gordon Head recall campaign, they failed because people were unwilling to sign the petition, full stop.

[Graham Howe]

I'm with Bernard on this - this campaign got a lot of free publicity locally and was almost impossible to avoid. The fact that it failed is more due to the grounds of the campaign than any other factor.

The fact that Gordo had the decency to resign and everyone admitted that the HST was a mistake addressed the main issues and it is time for everyone to move on - recalling MLAs now looks like revenge and doesn't do anyone any good.

One of my favorite comments is the one about Chong's campaign, where the recall organizer effectively says "We didn't count on her fighting back" - doh !

Can we put this one behind us now ?

[LJ]

Where is Vanderzalm's beaming visage now?