Wow, I am impressed. I have a sad feeling in my gut you are accurate for the winners. My list would be different but it's hard to separate who you want to win with who you would bet money on winning.
A 12th place showing for Isitt would be devastating and demoralizing and would likely see him bow out of politics after nearly a decade of trying.
I place Rose Henry a notch or two higher, at least above Murray. She never gets enough votes to challenge the winners but a lot of people save a vote for her. In the Helps/Gudgeon battle I see a toss up depending on turnout in the left of centre/right of centre neighbourhoods as Bernard noted. I'm leaning to Gudgeon, not just because I like her but I don't think she cancels out the Open Victoria slate. OV voters will likely vote for her but may drop McGrew, the less experienced OV candidate, to do so.
Thanks. I have a pretty good record of accuracy with past provincial and federal election results; I aim to continue that streak.
I'd say I agree with most of your analysis there. A shift in votes of even the smallest quantity could really change the landscape of the vote on Saturday, and put any of those people in 9th-12th position over the top at the expense of those who have squeaked back onto council in 6th-8th spot. In general, anybody in those 9th-12th positions is totally flexible and could end up anywhere in those four spots, or find themselves on council.
You might be right about Rose placing ahead of Murray. But she could be all the way down in 14th spot and still only be 150 to 200 votes off from snatching a council seat. Who knows. It's going to depend on turnout, both overall and by neighbourhood.
In general, while most voters do have an affinity for Rose (myself included) and believe she'd be a good voice on council, I'm more going off the fact that she has a smallish base constituency to draw from, is seen by those who know her and her politics as one of the more radically left-wing voices that could populate the council, and, in general, does not have the name recognition or, obviously, the incumbency factor that other traditional lefty councillors have or have had.
At the end of the day, the majority of the left wouldn't tick next to her name given the choice between her and a more moderate candidate, given that many of her views and her activist history could be seen as potentially not constructive in the council environment.
To her detriment, she also doesn't seem to get the NDP machine's assistance in her campaigns, given that she is more of a grassroots lefty (and this goes back to her natural constituency as well), and not really a kosher NDP-style candidate (even though she herself is definitely in the BC NDP camp; for example, she was a Horgan supporter during the leadership race earlier this year).
For Isitt, it's going to be whether his messaging has indeed sunk his ship. He chose a very confusing slogan this time around and I haven't seen or heard much of him around town; he's probably banking on the hope he will get enough name recognition to carry him onto council. I just don't see him getting any higher than 11th or 12th.
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