2697 replies to this topic

[davidN]

While I hope for everyones sake that sales do reach 275 that is still down by 60% +/- over last year. Not unexpected of course but worrisome for everyone from home sellers (no one buying) to home buyers (inventory down), to builders/trades (no developers planning to build if they cant sell). All in all the immediate ramifications are obvious.

 

What might not be so obvious at the moment is the long term effect. We still live in the most desirable location in Canada. We still see that our population growth is skewering to an older dynamic with more readily available cash. We are still on an Island with a shortage of land.

 

All of the above means that the single family home may rocket in price when this all lifts as people scramble for a limited supply. The younger dynamic may be priced out of the market for SFH even more than they are now. Condos and townhouses will be their only choice but even then the inventory will be limited as it takes years to build a condo project of any size. Will prices rise dramatically in this segment as well?

 

As much as it is sad to say ,the people that are really suffering through this probably could not afford todays prices so the fact that they are unemployed is not as dramatic as it might seem. Remember 2008 -  begat 2014.  An economic recovery had taken place by then , inventory was low, interest rates were low, demand was high, and bingo !!! - A massive increase in prices that began then and has lasted until now. 

 

All may seem doom and gloom now but it did in 2008 as well. We will come out of this changed in many ways but the market dynamics remain somewhat the same. We live in a supply and demand world.

[Matt R.]

I see a townhouse listed where we just sold. Listed at $450, a new record. Is it sold yet I wonder?

Matt.

[MarkoJ]

Victoria Real Estate Board

Fri May 1, 2020:

 

Month Apr Apr

Year 2020 2019

Net Unconditional Sales: 287 696

New Listings: 667 1,392

Active Listings: 2,305 2,751

 

Please Note

 

Left Column: stats for the entire month from this year

Right Column: stats for the entire month from last year 

[Victoria Watcher]

 

Victoria Real Estate Board

Fri May 1, 2020:

 

Month Apr Apr

Year 2020 2019

Net Unconditional Sales: 287 696

New Listings: 667 1,392

Active Listings: 2,305 2,751

 

Please Note

 

Left Column: stats for the entire month from this year

Right Column: stats for the entire month from last year 

 

 

59% drop off.  not the end of the world really.  let's face it there is nothing really closed (realtors lawyers title office banks) to prevent you from buying property right now.  is it harder to view?  sure.  i'm sure first-time buyers are put off.  anyone else that's done it before they can figure it out.

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 01 May 2020 - 06:28 AM.

[Citified.ca]

Hardly the market crash some feared, Victoria's April 2020 real-estate activity beat expectations

https://victoria.cit...t-expectations/

[MarkoJ]

Victoria Real Estate Board

Monday May 4, 2020:

 

Month May May

Year 2020 2019

Net Unconditional Sales: 28 848

New Listings: 89 1,613

Active Listings: 2,289 3,019

 

Please Note

 

Left Column: stats so far this month

Right Column: stats for the entire month from last year 

[MarkoJ]

We should get to 500 this month if the covid19 situation continues to stabilize. 

 

Victoria Real Estate Board

Monday May 11, 2020:

 

Month May May

Year 2020 2019

Net Unconditional Sales: 124 848

New Listings: 287 1,613

Active Listings: 2,319 3,019

 

Please Note

 

Left Column: stats so far this month

Right Column: stats for the entire month from last year

[Mike K.]

That's solid. Already half way to April's total ten days in.

[IPH]

Active listings are way down from last year as well so I wouldn't be surprised to see prices continue to climb unless we get a lot more new listings.

[Mike K.]

I can already hear the forces of fear trying to shape the market activity, as strong as it is considering the situation we're in, as an outright disaster.

[LJ]

Received this in an e-mail today, no idea as to its veracity.....

 

Subject: have you seen the new tax rules proposed by the new BC gov?

 

For context, about 20% of Canada’s total economy is house-dependent – and that’s a record. The most since numbers were gathered. This is beyond the 15% of California’s economy that real estate represented before the market blew up forcing the bankrupt state to issue IOUs. In short, it’s historic, unprecedented and emblematic of how speculative and delusional most BC residents have become. Now, with a bevy of eat-the-rich politicians about to swarm into the wheelhouse, the result seems predictable. Economic torpor, then a slow descent. But maybe I’m wrong. It might be fast.

The coalition of Dippers and Greens seizing power in a bloodless coup appears unified on a strategy to destroy real estate equity. First, they’ll double the Chinese Dudes tax, from a merely punishing 15% to a death-spiral 30%. That will send a strong message to the world that no foreign investment is wanted in BC. Genius.

Second, the tax will be extended across the entire province, and no longer just apply to YVR. So long, Victoria.

Third, there will be a capital gains tax introduced on real estate profits for people who have lived in a house less than five years, starting at $750,000. Once in place, of course, the time can be shortened or the ceiling reduced to capture more and more gains. And what government would ever eliminate that cash cow?

Fourth, a big jump in property transfer tax. No, a b-i-g increase seriously punishing people who live in semi-nice houses worth a couple of million or more. In fact by the time the $3 million mark is achieved, the tax would be equal to 12% of assessed value. Yes, that’s $360,000. Yikes. Look for values to suffer at the top end of the market.

Fifth, punishment for people who own more than one property for investment purposes with an annual tax equal to 2% of the property’s value, or $2,500 a month on a $1.5 million unrenovated butt-ugly, 50-year-old Vancouver Special. The tax will remain in place until the owner’s income is verified.

And meanwhile tenants will be subsidized with rent controls and a cash payment, while the province foots the bill for building 114,000 ‘affordable’ houses.

Does anyone seriously believe the real estate market can withstand this? On top of the slew of federal initiatives including that mortgage stress test for moister buyers, plus the looming collapse of Home Capital, the largest non-bank lender?

At the heart of the socialist view of the market is that people have a right to real estate, not just shelter. They do not. It’s also an assault on property as an asset class, plus a way to create de facto wealth redistribution and (natch) raise the millions and billions that will be required to fund subsidies and enhanced social programs. Perhaps this is exactly what BCers want. Somehow I doubt it, since so much of the huge equity families now have in their houses (many people’s entire net worth) is supported by an epic level of debt. Governments can easily, quickly – in an ideological fog – pass laws to destroy equity, but they’ll never reduce the borrowing. So, be careful what you wish for.Regards

[Nparker]

When did BC get a NEW government? I was under the impression there had been no change in the legislature since July 2017.

[max.bravo]

^thats some absurd copypasta. BC politicians’ commitment to bringing down the price of housing is all lip service.

Neither Horgan nor Trudeau are going to take any action that will dramatically affect the nest eggs of their supporters.

You might see serious action on cost of housing when millenial renters are the PM and premier. But i doubt it.

[MarkoJ]

Slowlest May in history is 1990 at 441 sales. I think we should clear that. 

 

Victoria Real Estate Board

Tuesday May 19, 2020:

 

Month May May

Year 2020 2019

Net Unconditional Sales: 230 848

New Listings: 600 1,613

Active Listings: 2,447 3,019  

[MarkoJ]

Will take quite the week to hit 500 sales for the month. SFH sales have bounced back a bit but condos tough going right now.

 

Victoria Real Estate Board

Monday May 25, 2020:

 

Month May May

Year 2020 2019

Net Unconditional Sales: 329 848

New Listings: 828 1,613

Active Listings: 2,516 3,019

 

Please Note

 

Left Column: stats so far this month

Right Column: stats for the entire month from last year 

[Mike K.]

Oh yeah, that’ll take some pull, for sure. Seven days to go!

[MarkoJ]

I'll post more detailed numbers in a few hours but most of the weakness is from a depressed condo market.

 

Victoria Real Estate Board

Mon June 1, 2020:

 

Month May May

Year 2020 2019

Net Unconditional Sales: 457 848

New Listings: 1,095 1,613

Active Listings: 2,544 3,019

 

Please Note

 

Left Column: stats for the entire month from this year

Right Column: stats for the entire month from last year

[Mike K.]

Had it not been for a lacklustre condo market sales would have pushed well behind 500, for sure.

[Nparker]

Had it not been for a lacklustre condo market sales would have pushed well behind 500, for sure.

Behind or beyond?

[Mike K.]

Damn auto correct. Beyond.