5025 replies to this topic

[spanky123]

CMHC suggesting that they may have to tighten mortgage rules as up to 20% of mortgages could be underwater by September.

 

https://ca.finance.y...-011727716.html

Edited by spanky123, 19 May 2020 - 06:49 PM.

[Mike K.]

This pertains solely to CMHC-insured mortgages, no?

“If there is an insurance claim, CMHC will be called upon to cover these losses,” Siddall said in the statement. “We are therefore evaluating whether we should change our underwriting policies in light of these market conditions.”

So it’s not 20% of mortgages, but 20% (18% as per the article) of CMHC-insured mortgages, which represent roughly 20% of all mortgages. So shouldn’t that media article state that just under 4% of all Canadian mortgages might have to tap into insurance, not 18%?

Am I missing something here? Is CMHC saying any defaulted mortgage will be insured by them?

[Citified.ca]

Victoria real-estate sales bounced back in May as houses fetched near record-high prices

https://victoria.cit...rd-high-prices/

Edited by Mike K., 02 June 2020 - 08:22 AM.

[Sparky]

^ Mike that link is an never ending loop.

[exc911ence]

^ Mike that link is an never ending loop.

 

It ends when you stop clicking on it. 

[Mike K.]

D'oh! I've updated the post now. Here it is again: https://victoria.cit...rd-high-prices/

 

The media will be going bananas today (I bet) with end-of-the-world fear mongering, again.

[johnk2]

I wonder if demand from outside BC will amp up.

I'm sure some people noticed on their evening news that the Island was one of the safer places to be during the pandemic. Competent, calm and confident public officials are a plus, too. 

[max.bravo]

^It wouldn’t surprise me. This kind of shakeup makes people confront their mortality, and no doubt some will determine, “it might be time to make that move to victoria I’ve always planned...”

Among my circle, the only folks actually doing it own some real estate here already- they were off seeking big bucks in AB pre-retirement. They always planned to come back, but they’ll be doing it sooner because #yolo (and also because their airbnbs are empty here)...

[spanky123]

I wonder if demand from outside BC will amp up.

I'm sure some people noticed on their evening news that the Island was one of the safer places to be during the pandemic. Competent, calm and confident public officials are a plus, too. 

 

Right now most people have lots of cash, interest rates are 0 and Government money is flooding the system everywhere. We will create an even bigger housing bubble then we had last time.

[Mike K.]

If we already had a bubble I’ll take a dozen more, thank you.

Anecdotally a lot of people from out of province are already looking. But it takes them longer to make a commitment as not all are familiar with the area and some need to free up assets to qualify. Others still are contemplating moving their businesses/families here to avoid the spec tax. All of those scenarios take time to work out.

We also have a freeze on military postings, meaning a decent chunk of home sales to non-locals that normally occur in the spring have been postponed with no ETA. So be on the lookout for that when stats emerge that identify the regions from which buyers originated. A portion of the drop among non-BC residents will be because of the posting freeze.

[exc911ence]

I wonder if demand from outside BC will amp up.

I'm sure some people noticed on their evening news that the Island was one of the safer places to be during the pandemic. Competent, calm and confident public officials are a plus, too. 

 

You might find that demand on the peninsula and west shore goes up from folks looking to relocate out of Victoria-proper. Helps isn't helping the desirability of her city.

[Casual Kev]

"all of the above" from me. Rock-bottom interest rates, huge cash injections in the economy... still a buy-friendly environment. Some AirBnB inventory seems to be getting dumped but otherwise most inventory geared towards student can easily switch to long-term rental. If anything, there won't be a better time to borrow - although banks and the CMHC are gearing up for a significant drop in prices. 

 

The real test will be when the spending to make up for the economic losses of COVID-19 will have to be paid for. You're going to see Chretien-esque cuts across the board, if not worse. Thankfully Canada is a global destination for long-term investment, so you will still have capital coming over even while government bonds return nothing. But once the public service and education/health/social spending gets slashed, that's when prices will take a plunge. Not going to see that until next tax season the earliest, though.

 

And when it happens I'd imagine the drop will vary wildly by region. Retirement destinations should hold up quite nicely, but areas with lots of first-time homeowners and working-age commuters could drop hard. It's a bit difficult to say what the future holds for international education and tourism long-term, though, so whether students and visitors will be around in similar numbers when that happens remains to be seen.

 

I was looking to buy my first home recently but I have no idea whether my job will still be here 1-2 years from now so I'm holding my trigger finger.

Edited by Casual Kev, 02 June 2020 - 11:40 PM.

[Kapten Kapsell]

Here's an interesting article from Vancouver Sun about strata insurance increases... new data suggests that strata insurance premiums in Vancouver have increased by an average of 65% this year, with some buildings reporting increases of 200% or more.

 

https://vancouversun...f-00e505ead6da/

[Nparker]

Shamefull and unjustifiable.

[Casual Kev]

You'd think a new leaky-condo crisis is brewing, but insurers have been so tight-lipped about what's driving premium increases it sounds more like the industry's big players are doing a smash-and-grab.

[lanforod]

Yeah, I kinda gave up trying to find a local company that will cover the increase deductible. I have a couple of options on the mainland I need to contact. Weird, IMO, as there aren't that many underwriters.

[Citified.ca]

Jordan Milne of GMC Projects discusses various real-estate asset classes in Victoria and how they've been impacted by COVID.

 

 

Ten on the 10th: COVID-19's impact on Victoria's real-estate Q&A with Jordan Milne of GMC Projects

https://victoria.cit...f-gmc-projects/

[VIResident]

You'd think a new leaky-condo crisis is brewing, but insurers have been so tight-lipped about what's driving premium increases it sounds more like the industry's big players are doing a smash-and-grab.

 

B.C. report says condo insurance market 'unhealthy,' premiums up 40 per cent

 

 

VANCOUVER — A report commissioned by the B.C. government says insurance premiums for condominium buildings have increased by as much as 40 per cent year over year while deductible costs have tripled.

 

Blair Morrison, chief executive officer of The B.C. Financial Services Authority, says the state of the insurance market for condo buildings is unhealthy.

He says despite large increases in the cost of insurance, the situation has yet to stabilize, likely meaning further increases for condo councils, known as strata councils in B.C.

 

 

https://www.timescol...cent-1.24153972

Edited by VIResident, 16 June 2020 - 11:21 AM.

[aastra]

The housing crisis wouldn't be much of a crisis if we weren't continually coming up with new ways to aggravate it and prolong it, year after year after year.

 

Well, at least we have our fond memories of those dirt-cheap insurance bargains that we all enjoyed for so many decades, before some jerk spoiled the party and bothered to inform the notoriously naive and unwary insurance industry about the potential for earthquakes.

[VIResident]

Les Leyne: Sinking feeling as province tries to deal with condo insurance crisis 

 

"......The government’s moves this week try to tackle both sides of the problem — the insurance companies’ frantic gouging to make up their losses, and abdication of responsibilities by condo owners."  

 

".....The one move that could make a difference in the here and now is a change to allow stratas to use contingency reserves to pay for unexpected premium hikes.  But that will be a one-off benefit for many, because the hikes are so big, they’ll eat a lot of those reserves."

 

"It’s going to take a lot more steps at a much faster pace to make a noticeable dent in the premiums now being charged."

 

The preliminary report on the crisis summed up the current state of the strata insurance market as “unhealthy.”

 

 

It’s much worse than that. It’s on the critical list.

 

 

 

 

https://www.timescol...isis-1.24159693

Edited by VIResident, 25 June 2020 - 07:59 PM.