2164 replies to this topic

[rjag]

The rack price for Nanaimo has crashed down to 81 cents.

 

Now lets see how long it takes for gas stations to lower their prices, which at 81 cents should reflect $1.20-$1.25 at the pumps.

 

Dont forget at $.81 add $.40-.45 in taxes and then add $.12-.15 in delivery and station markup so about $1.35-$1.38 is prob the range

[Mike K.]

Costco still makes a profit at their prices, so when we had a rack price of 88 and Costco was selling fuel at $1.299 that gives you a good indication of the uplift some stations factor in. On the Westshore there were several stations charging 1349 at the same rack price while everybody else’s was in 1379 or 1389 land.

At 81 cents expect Costco to head into the lower 20’s if the drop is sustained. Nearby competitors will drop below the 30’s to entice drivers.

[rjag]

Costco still makes a profit at their prices, so when we had a rack price of 88 and Costco was selling fuel at $1.299 that gives you a good indication of the uplift some stations factor in. On the Westshore there were several stations charging 1349 at the same rack price while everybody else’s was in 1379 or 1389 land.

At 81 cents expect Costco to head into the lower 20’s if the drop is sustained. Nearby competitors will drop below the 30’s to entice drivers.

 

Yup, their gas is restricted to members. They'll mark it up a few pennies but the margin will be pretty narrow as its a value add draw to get more membership revenue

[Mike K.]

For sure! 

 

Stations will mark-up the price by 10 cents typically, sometimes more (heck, often more). Costco goes in with 1-2 cents mark-up.

 

Typically the rack price already includes transportation to individual stations. So at 81 you'll add:

- 10 cents fed tax

- 15.61 prov tax

- 8.95 carbon tax

- 5.5 transit tax

- 5% GST

 

Costco can make a profit at 1.269

 

Low 20's was a little too low in my off-the-cuff estimate.

[rjag]

so we should really be seeing it closer to $1.32 then?

[Mike K.]

Yeah, I'd say so!

[Mike K.]

$1.289 at Costco today. This is the lowest gas price of the summer.

[Mike K.]

$1.269 now.

[Sparky]

I saw $1.46 in Vancouver yesterday.

[Jackerbie]

I saw $1.46 in Vancouver yesterday.

 

$1.469 this morning, will likely drop to $1.389 or less after the evening commute. Our gas prices are weird like that, huge variation at different times of the day.

[DavidC]

I filled up yesterday at $1.039, and that was for premium at Costco.

Mind, I was in Edmonton at the time...

[SimonH]

I filled up yesterday at $1.039, and that was for premium at Costco.

Mind, I was in Edmonton at the time...

The lengths some people will go to save money 

[Mike K.]

1.259 at Costco today! Rack is 83.50.

[Cats4Hire]

Some stations jumped to $1.41. Esso and Co-op haven't jumped yet according to Gas Buddy.

[Mike K.]

That's straight up price gauging, unless there's been a macro event that has yet to be factored into tomorrow's rack price and hit the news cycle.

 

Some stations will do this to induce a panic, with people flocking to buy at the inflated price thinking tomorrow it might spike even higher. The station sells off gas it bought at a rack price that should have corresponded to 1.359 but which it has been forced to sell at 1.329, and tomorrow new supply arrives at the lower rack price and the station will reduce its price to 1.319.

[FogPub]

The cynic in me says the latest jump is merely because it's the last 2 weeks of summer, a very busy travel period.  It'll drop like a stone in the first week of Sept., once Labour Day is done.

[Mike K.]

I can confirm the rack price dropped half a cent this morning.

So yeah, this is a gas station-driven price hike before a busy weekend.

[Jackerbie]

I can confirm the rack price dropped half a cent this morning.

So yeah, this is a gas station-driven price hike before a busy weekend.

 

We're all over the place here in Richmond. $1.349 this morning, was $1.319 last night and $1.459 yesterday afternoon. Our price typically fluctuates by 10-15 cents throughout the day....

[vortoozo]

The BCUC Inquiry findings are coming out next week. Maybe the stations have risen prices in anticipation of a favourable outcome?

[vortoozo]

I've started reading through some of the submissions that are already available on the BCUC website.

 

In particular, this stood out to me from Parkland:

 

 

Parkland Fuel Corporation (“Parkland”) has had issues accessing light crude by virtue of constraints on TMPL, and has, at times, resorted to higher cost options to maximize refinery utilization.  However, Parkland’s challenges in this regard are not a key determinant of wholesale prices and refining margins in BC. Wholesale prices in BC (as with any functioning market) are determined by the marginal supply cost, and Parkland’s Burnaby Refinery is not the marginal source of supply (it is infra-marginal).  Parkland can only charge a competitive price, and must absorb any costs associated with crude supply challenges.

 

If I'm reading this correctly, Parkland is saying that capacity constraints on the pipeline are not impacting gasoline pricing. They are "absorbing" the difference in cost to acquire higher-priced fuels from other sources.

The argument that the pipeline will help reduce gas prices in BC was just disproven by the province's largest refinery.

Edited by vortoozo, 23 August 2019 - 12:26 PM.