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Victoria population discussion | Census data | CRD projections


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#281 Mattjvd

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Posted 09 February 2017 - 04:28 PM

Really enjoyed the article, thanks Mike

#282 zoomer

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Posted 09 February 2017 - 09:25 PM

Ya, early May is coming and age and sex (what you are, not how often etc. you have it) is on the next results.

 

The how often you have it and preferences data will be released in July.  Info gathered on the long form census.  Just sayin..


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#283 Mike K.

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Posted 10 February 2017 - 08:16 AM

Oh you guys :)

Tune in again at 10AM for this Friday's round table with Adam Stirling, Ryan Price and myself. I'm sure the issue of population growth will be discussed.

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#284 jonny

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Posted 10 February 2017 - 08:58 AM

One other thing to consider with Victoria's population growth and the disparity between the growth in population and the growth in residents is the ‘mini baby boom’ that is currently ongoing. Many Gen Xers who supposedly never wanted to have kids decided to in their late 30’s/early 40’s to have children. Millennials are now having kids in significant numbers, as well. It’ll be interesting to see how the numbers in the younger cohorts have changed in the Victoria CMA  (I don’t think that data has come out yet).

 

The cohort of Canadians who are having kids nowadays is huge – spanning some 20 years – from their early 20’s to early 40’s. This is a relatively new phenomenon.



#285 Mike K.

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Posted 10 February 2017 - 09:01 AM

No kidding, hey? I didn't realize that this was a thing.

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#286 jonny

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Posted 10 February 2017 - 09:03 AM

Totally

 

 

Where job prospects flow, infant cries are sure to follow. Between 2006 and 2011, Saskatchewan’s population of little ones under age 4 grew by 19.6%, contributing to the province’s exponential growth. Alberta saw a 20% increase.

 

But what the 2011 census revealed as a “baby boomlet” is proving to be an enduring pattern in Canadian communities coast to coast, regardless of economic health. For the first time in 50 years, this cohort [aged 4 and younger] grew in all provinces and territories, in Alberta by 20% and in Quebec by 17.5%, the census found. Demographers expect it will continue for a decade longer.

 

http://news.national...te-is-declining



#287 jonny

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Posted 10 February 2017 - 09:08 AM

10 years ago we were closing schools left right and center. Now all we hear about is building more schools. It's crazy how much things have changed.

 

Between 2006 and 2011 the number of children in the Victoria CMA was pretty flat, whereas I bet it has grown significantly in the last 5 years.

 

2017-02-10 09_07_10-Chart description_ Victoria, CMA - Population, 2011 and 2006 censuses.png



#288 lanforod

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Posted 10 February 2017 - 09:47 AM

It's affected a lot of services for that age range. Day care spots, early program spots such as swimming or preschool. etc.

#289 Mike K.

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Posted 03 May 2017 - 09:02 AM

Obviously there's some aging in place adding to this effect, but boomers/retirees are officially the largest group of newcomers to this region, representing a massive chunk of newcomers to the region over the last five years.

 

Victoria-a-boomtown-for-boomers-2016-age-census.jpg

The latest Canada census statistics reveal retirees are the driving force behind the Capital Region's population spike between 2011 and 2016.

 

Boomer boomtown: retirees take massive lead in Capital Region's population growth

http://victoria.citi...nsus-2011-2016/


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#290 LeoVictoria

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Posted 03 May 2017 - 11:32 AM

Uh oh, here I come to argue more statistics.  

 

In Canada, population of seniors is up 20% from 2011 -> 2016.  So the large majority of our 23% increase is in fact explained by aging in place and normal demographic trends (assuming we don't have too many 65+ immigrants but I can't confirm this).

What about the remaining 3% difference?

Well there are two possibilities:

1.  We have an influx of boomers that are coming here as asserted above.

2.  We have an older demographic, which also means more people 60-64.  This larger group (compared to Canada as a whole) aged by 5 years and are now in the 65+ category.

 

It's definitely a combination of 1 and 2, but it's actually not possible to determine from the data as presented how many new boomers arrived here.


Edited by LeoVictoria, 03 May 2017 - 11:34 AM.


#291 nerka

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Posted 03 May 2017 - 11:43 AM

10 years ago we were closing schools left right and center. Now all we hear about is building more schools. It's crazy how much things have changed.

 

Between 2006 and 2011 the number of children in the Victoria CMA was pretty flat, whereas I bet it has grown significantly in the last 5 years.

 

Victoria City has had a mini baby boomlet according to the data:  2016 - 7935, 2011- 7280. 9% growth in the 0 to 14 year bracket over that five years.  Not bad for a core municipality though obviously less than the growth in the Westshore which mirrors the faster overall population growth there.


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#292 sdwright.vic

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Posted 03 May 2017 - 04:33 PM

Yet on the news today they were saying Canada wide the over 65 set currently out numbers the under 14 set for the first time in... forever!
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#293 North Shore

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Posted 03 May 2017 - 08:26 PM

.....oh, great: back to 'newly wed, and nearly dead'...


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Say, what's that mountain goat doing up here in the mist?

#294 Mike K.

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Posted 04 May 2017 - 05:39 AM

Very much so. We've never had over 20% of the population sitting at 65+. The national average is 16.3%, and the BC average is 18.3%.


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#295 Citified.ca

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Posted 03 August 2017 - 09:26 AM

Victoria’s high number of ‘empty homes’ a myth: Statistics Canada

 


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#296 sdwright.vic

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Posted 03 August 2017 - 03:01 PM

So... now some of y'all are gonna start valuing census results?!?
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#297 LeoVictoria

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Posted 17 August 2017 - 11:08 PM

boomers/retirees are officially the largest group of newcomers to this region, representing a massive chunk of newcomers to the region over the last five years.

 

Finally got around to writing this article and demonstrating that the above is not true.   The increase in seniors is entirely explained by aging in place and in fact the driving force behind capital region population increases between 2011 and 2016 is not seniors but university students and working age adults primarily between the ages of 35 and 50.

 

https://househuntvic...ge-in-victoria/



#298 spanky123

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Posted 18 August 2017 - 07:17 AM

Finally got around to writing this article and demonstrating that the above is not true.   The increase in seniors is entirely explained by aging in place and in fact the driving force behind capital region population increases between 2011 and 2016 is not seniors but university students and working age adults primarily between the ages of 35 and 50.

 

https://househuntvic...ge-in-victoria/

 

I enjoy reading your work but statistically your comments don't make sense. You can't explain a large increase in the 60-75 age group by simple aging of the participants. Every group would have shifted during the 5 year period and you would expect to see the same trend then for other cities as well (which we do not).. 

 

All you need to do is go to any event in Victoria and note that the blue hairs dominate. As we continue to age in Victoria it will have a major impact on the face of our economy.



#299 Mike K.

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Posted 18 August 2017 - 07:23 AM

Leo, are you sure your data is correct?
 
Your graph below shows an increase in people aged 20-24 to be ~5,200 people. But Census data shows an increase of 875 (23,470 in 2011, 24,345 in 2016) or a 3.7% rise. It also shows the 15-19 year old-old bracket with a rise of ~2,600, but census data shows a decrease of 725 individuals (a drop of 3.8%).
 
I see you're aging the population for that graph. Can you explain how you arrived at the numbers that you present? I might not be grasping the data.
 
cmapopchangeageadj.png

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#300 lanforod

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Posted 18 August 2017 - 07:36 AM

Also, why would 85+ year olds drop so much? Has life expectancy dropped here? I'd expect that to remain fairly constant - they die, but are replaced in about equal numbers by aging.



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