1263 replies to this topic

[Hotel Mike]

I wonder what the population of Victoria itself will be in a few years.  Just thinking of the projects under construction or in development, there will be thousands of residents added soon. HP1 and 2. Two seniors buildings under construction, Bayview and Tapestry, the Yates on Yates and its shadow on Johnson, B&W, Wade, Bellewood Park and other Abstract projects, Ironwood, and others I've either forgot or am too lazy to remember. Lots of other lots just waiting for the go ahead. 

[Mike K.]

Don’t forget you can always review the live data here: https://victoria.citified.ca/data/

There are 1,700 condo and rental units underway just in downtown Victoria, so by 2022 all of them will be completed. That’s about 2,000 residents right there.

[spanky123]

Don’t forget you can always review the live data here: https://victoria.citified.ca/data/

There are 1,700 condo and rental units underway just in downtown Victoria, so by 2022 all of them will be completed. That’s about 2,000 residents right there.

 

15 years ago that would have been almost 4,000 residents. I am surprised that the SJWs don't start insisting that having one person occupying a residence is wasteful and that a minimum of two are required.

[Nparker]

...I am surprised that the SJWs don't start insisting that having one person occupying a residence is wasteful and that a minimum of two are required.

Please don't put that thought out to the universe. 

[DavidSchell]

Interesting discussion coming from the results of the population projection model I developed for BC stats a few years ago is gardening such opinions

[Mike K.]

Wow!

Would you know, by chance, why the decision was made to move View Royal out of the Westshore classification and into the Core classification? That made a big impact on internet arguments.

[DavidSchell]

Wow!

Would you know, by chance, why the decision was made to move View Royal out of the Westshore classification and into the Core classification? That made a big impact on internet arguments.

 

nope ... a demographer would have been involved with that decision, most likely in consultation with the province's chief statistician  (Martin Monkman).

 

I was the software engineer on the project working closely with the person who ran the demographics department at BC Stats. She developed the methodology and I used that methodology  to develop the algorithms.

 

I must say it was one of the most rewarding projects I worked on in my 35 year IT career. 

Edited by DavidSchell, 09 July 2019 - 02:53 PM.

[Mike K.]

Amazing.

Since you’ve got the mic, any chance that you may know why Victoria’s CMA does not include obviously Victoria-dependent communities in the Cowichan Valley when describing the metropolitan area?

[newbie_01]

there may be a few commuters from north of the Malahat, but I couldn't consider the area up there as Victoria-dependent

[Jackerbie]

Amazing.

Since you’ve got the mic, any chance that you may know why Victoria’s CMA does not include obviously Victoria-dependent communities in the Cowichan Valley when describing the metropolitan area?

 

It's based on commuter flows. I believe that it would require 50% of Cowichan Valley commuters heading into the core, or 25% or core residents commuting to the Cowichan Valley.

[Mike K.]

I don’t mean the entire CVRD, but the south end certainly is. Shawnigan is a bedroom community of Victoria. It has been for decades. Malahat is, and increasingly so is Mill Bay.

We even have transit services between the those communities and as far away as Duncan. So why is Shirley part of the CMA, but Shawnigan isn’t?

[Matt R.]

People commuting from Salt Spring to Victoria are my bread and butter. Tourists are the gravy.

Matt.

[Mike K.]

I wonder what the population of Victoria itself will be in a few years.  Just thinking of the projects under construction or in development, there will be thousands of residents added soon. HP1 and 2. Two seniors buildings under construction, Bayview and Tapestry, the Yates on Yates and its shadow on Johnson, B&W, Wade, Bellewood Park and other Abstract projects, Ironwood, and others I've either forgot or am too lazy to remember. Lots of other lots just waiting for the go ahead. 

 

I've run the numbers a little further and there are 2,700-units of housing underway within the City of Victoria, which will complete by 2022. So 1.2 individuals per household equates to 3,240 residents. Keep in mind that that does not necessarily mean the population will grow by that much (kids leaving home, seniors downsizing, investment units, vacation properties, etc.).

[garryoak]

Yes, but fairly close. And look at 2011 to 2018:

 

Peninsula 4387 Westshore 13779 Core 25042

even if you allocate View Royal's 1,754 to the Westshore, you still are way above in the core.

 

 

I'm not sure what those numbers are referencing. Can you cite the source?

 

The source is the BC Stats population estimates, as posted above in post #342.  Since 2011, most of the population growth has been in the core area.  During the 2011-18 period, both Saanich (+10,190) and the City of Victoria (+9,728) outgrew Langford (+8,918).  While the Westshore has experienced faster percentage growth, the core area has had much greater absolute growth in recent years (+25,042 versus +13,779 for 2011-18).

[Mike K.]

Census data shows the Westshore grew by 18,978 vs. the core's 16,458 between 2006 and 2016, and that's with View Royal being re-assigned as a core municipality.

[Mike K.]

I don't know why the BC estimates are so off from the official census. In the case of the CoV, the census and BC Stats have the two municipalities something like 5,000 residents apart. That's a huge berth. Who's right, and who's wrong?

[garryoak]

Census data shows the Westshore grew by 18,978 vs. the core's 16,458 between 2006 and 2016, and that's with View Royal being re-assigned as a core municipality.

 

That may be so for 2006-16, but I was talking about the more recent period from 2011-18.

[Mike K.]

I don't know if I can take the BC estimates seriously in that regard. Where would 25k people have situated themselves for the core to have grown by such a massive (relatively) figure and during years of near-zero vacancy rates?

 

And don't get me wrong, I'd like to get to the bottom of how these figures are calculated. I'm glad you raised these figures, but I have a hard time believing 25,000 people have moved to/been born in the five core municipalities over 7 years when the entire Capital Region grew by fewer than 24,000 people between 2011 and 2016, according to the census.

 

Welcome to the VV, btw!

[garryoak]

Thanks. 

 

According to BC Stats, the post-census estimates are developed by starting with the census data then adjusting for undercount (Statistics Canada does post-census surveys to determine this) to provide the census year estimates.  Subsequent years are then estimated by looking at vital statistics (births and deaths) along with administrative records (such as income tax records) and residential electricity hook-ups, which are good indicators of migration between regions.

 

Housing starts for the period 2011-17 seem to generally back up the BC Stats population estimates, at least for City of Victoria and Langford.  During that period, the City of Victoria had 4,170 housing starts while Langford had 4,161.  That's roughly in line with the estimated 2011-18 population increase of +9,278 for City of Victoria versus +8,918 for Langford.  

[Mike K.]

I'm glad we brought up housing starts. Bear with me for a moment.

 

In a municipality like CoV, the majority of housing (~90%) is in the form of high-density, multi-unit dwellings that require between 2-4 years of construction from start to finish with the average being roughly 30-36 months for the bulk of new density in a concrete building. If we take 4,200 housing starts between 2011 and 2018, anywhere from 1,200 to roughly 3,500-units would still be underway come 2018 and uninhabitable given construction timelines, particularly how delayed they have been since 2016.

 

In Langford, though, you have a much higher ratio of single-family-dwellings than you do high-density units (~6 months for construction) and significantly fewer high-density concrete buildings, meaning the woodframe projects that do go up in Langford require less construction time overall (approximately 18 months for a typical 60-100-unit woodframe rental in Langford). Langford also has a higher occupant ratio per dwelling (2.36 vs Victoria's 1.74).

 

What this boils down to, is if Victoria had a population rise of 9,300 but Langford 8,900 according to BC Stats' estimate and both municipalities had the same housing starts, Langford should, according to its occupant density and faster rate of construction, have grown much faster than the CoV.

 

Maybe what's happening is you have more pent-up demand for apartment dwellings in Langford (i.e. the kid wants to move out of mom and dad's home on Bear Mountain, but wants to stay on the Westshore) so he rents an apartment in downtown Langford?

 

garryoak, do you have data for housing completions, not starts for that period?