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Victoria population discussion | Census data | CRD projections


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#361 Mike K.

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Posted 09 July 2019 - 10:50 AM

Oh, and core minus VR: 23,953 (vs. 28,363).

 

But it doesn't matter. View Royal's growth is occurring "on" the Westshore anyways, so as far as the impact on the economy the benefits of that growth are Langford's/Colwood's more than they are Victoria's (schools, shopping centres, sport complexes, etc.).


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#362 RFS

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Posted 09 July 2019 - 10:53 AM

Percentage growth can be very misleading. A physically large jurisdiction with a low population can throw up huge percentage growth numbers.


Sure but when comparing growth between an older area with a couple hundred thousand people to a newer area with 60 or 70 thousand I'd say percentage is far more relevant

#363 Mike K.

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Posted 09 July 2019 - 11:07 AM

Looking at the numbers like we have been, the core has been lagging the Westshore's population growth for years now with a 4,500 person discrepancy if we forget the political boundaries of VR and focus on the physical boundaries.


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#364 Hotel Mike

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Posted 09 July 2019 - 01:39 PM

I wonder what the population of Victoria itself will be in a few years.  Just thinking of the projects under construction or in development, there will be thousands of residents added soon. HP1 and 2. Two seniors buildings under construction, Bayview and Tapestry, the Yates on Yates and its shadow on Johnson, B&W, Wade, Bellewood Park and other Abstract projects, Ironwood, and others I've either forgot or am too lazy to remember. Lots of other lots just waiting for the go ahead. 


Don't be so sure.:cool:

#365 Mike K.

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Posted 09 July 2019 - 01:56 PM

Don’t forget you can always review the live data here: https://victoria.citified.ca/data/

There are 1,700 condo and rental units underway just in downtown Victoria, so by 2022 all of them will be completed. That’s about 2,000 residents right there.

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#366 spanky123

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Posted 09 July 2019 - 02:28 PM

Don’t forget you can always review the live data here: https://victoria.citified.ca/data/

There are 1,700 condo and rental units underway just in downtown Victoria, so by 2022 all of them will be completed. That’s about 2,000 residents right there.

 

15 years ago that would have been almost 4,000 residents. I am surprised that the SJWs don't start insisting that having one person occupying a residence is wasteful and that a minimum of two are required.



#367 Nparker

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Posted 09 July 2019 - 02:30 PM

...I am surprised that the SJWs don't start insisting that having one person occupying a residence is wasteful and that a minimum of two are required.

Please don't put that thought out to the universe.  :wacko:



#368 DavidSchell

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Posted 09 July 2019 - 02:32 PM

Interesting discussion coming from the results of the population projection model I developed for BC stats a few years ago is gardening such opinions :)



#369 Mike K.

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Posted 09 July 2019 - 02:40 PM

Wow!

Would you know, by chance, why the decision was made to move View Royal out of the Westshore classification and into the Core classification? That made a big impact on internet arguments.

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#370 DavidSchell

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Posted 09 July 2019 - 02:51 PM

Wow!

Would you know, by chance, why the decision was made to move View Royal out of the Westshore classification and into the Core classification? That made a big impact on internet arguments.

 

nope ... a demographer would have been involved with that decision, most likely in consultation with the province's chief statistician  (Martin Monkman).

 

I was the software engineer on the project working closely with the person who ran the demographics department at BC Stats. She developed the methodology and I used that methodology  to develop the algorithms.

 

I must say it was one of the most rewarding projects I worked on in my 35 year IT career. 


Edited by DavidSchell, 09 July 2019 - 02:53 PM.


#371 Mike K.

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Posted 09 July 2019 - 03:15 PM

Amazing.

Since you’ve got the mic, any chance that you may know why Victoria’s CMA does not include obviously Victoria-dependent communities in the Cowichan Valley when describing the metropolitan area?

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#372 newbie_01

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Posted 09 July 2019 - 03:38 PM

there may be a few commuters from north of the Malahat, but I couldn't consider the area up there as Victoria-dependent

#373 Jackerbie

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Posted 09 July 2019 - 03:46 PM

Amazing.

Since you’ve got the mic, any chance that you may know why Victoria’s CMA does not include obviously Victoria-dependent communities in the Cowichan Valley when describing the metropolitan area?

 

It's based on commuter flows. I believe that it would require 50% of Cowichan Valley commuters heading into the core, or 25% or core residents commuting to the Cowichan Valley.



#374 Mike K.

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Posted 09 July 2019 - 03:55 PM

I don’t mean the entire CVRD, but the south end certainly is. Shawnigan is a bedroom community of Victoria. It has been for decades. Malahat is, and increasingly so is Mill Bay.

We even have transit services between the those communities and as far away as Duncan. So why is Shirley part of the CMA, but Shawnigan isn’t?
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#375 Matt R.

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Posted 09 July 2019 - 06:12 PM

People commuting from Salt Spring to Victoria are my bread and butter. Tourists are the gravy. :)

Matt.
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#376 Mike K.

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Posted 10 July 2019 - 10:18 AM

I wonder what the population of Victoria itself will be in a few years.  Just thinking of the projects under construction or in development, there will be thousands of residents added soon. HP1 and 2. Two seniors buildings under construction, Bayview and Tapestry, the Yates on Yates and its shadow on Johnson, B&W, Wade, Bellewood Park and other Abstract projects, Ironwood, and others I've either forgot or am too lazy to remember. Lots of other lots just waiting for the go ahead. 

 

I've run the numbers a little further and there are 2,700-units of housing underway within the City of Victoria, which will complete by 2022. So 1.2 individuals per household equates to 3,240 residents. Keep in mind that that does not necessarily mean the population will grow by that much (kids leaving home, seniors downsizing, investment units, vacation properties, etc.).


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#377 garryoak

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Posted 06 August 2019 - 07:46 AM

Yes, but fairly close. And look at 2011 to 2018:

 

Peninsula 4387 Westshore 13779 Core 25042

even if you allocate View Royal's 1,754 to the Westshore, you still are way above in the core.

 

 

I'm not sure what those numbers are referencing. Can you cite the source?

 

The source is the BC Stats population estimates, as posted above in post #342.  Since 2011, most of the population growth has been in the core area.  During the 2011-18 period, both Saanich (+10,190) and the City of Victoria (+9,728) outgrew Langford (+8,918).  While the Westshore has experienced faster percentage growth, the core area has had much greater absolute growth in recent years (+25,042 versus +13,779 for 2011-18).

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#378 Mike K.

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Posted 06 August 2019 - 08:47 AM

Census data shows the Westshore grew by 18,978 vs. the core's 16,458 between 2006 and 2016, and that's with View Royal being re-assigned as a core municipality.


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#379 Mike K.

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Posted 06 August 2019 - 08:54 AM

I don't know why the BC estimates are so off from the official census. In the case of the CoV, the census and BC Stats have the two municipalities something like 5,000 residents apart. That's a huge berth. Who's right, and who's wrong?


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#380 garryoak

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Posted 06 August 2019 - 08:56 AM

Census data shows the Westshore grew by 18,978 vs. the core's 16,458 between 2006 and 2016, and that's with View Royal being re-assigned as a core municipality.

 

That may be so for 2006-16, but I was talking about the more recent period from 2011-18.



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