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Victoria population discussion | Census data | CRD projections


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#381 Mike K.

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Posted 06 August 2019 - 12:06 PM

I don't know if I can take the BC estimates seriously in that regard. Where would 25k people have situated themselves for the core to have grown by such a massive (relatively) figure and during years of near-zero vacancy rates?

 

And don't get me wrong, I'd like to get to the bottom of how these figures are calculated. I'm glad you raised these figures, but I have a hard time believing 25,000 people have moved to/been born in the five core municipalities over 7 years when the entire Capital Region grew by fewer than 24,000 people between 2011 and 2016, according to the census.

 

Welcome to the VV, btw!


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#382 garryoak

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Posted 07 August 2019 - 05:55 AM

Thanks. 

 

According to BC Stats, the post-census estimates are developed by starting with the census data then adjusting for undercount (Statistics Canada does post-census surveys to determine this) to provide the census year estimates.  Subsequent years are then estimated by looking at vital statistics (births and deaths) along with administrative records (such as income tax records) and residential electricity hook-ups, which are good indicators of migration between regions.

 

Housing starts for the period 2011-17 seem to generally back up the BC Stats population estimates, at least for City of Victoria and Langford.  During that period, the City of Victoria had 4,170 housing starts while Langford had 4,161.  That's roughly in line with the estimated 2011-18 population increase of +9,278 for City of Victoria versus +8,918 for Langford.  



#383 Mike K.

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Posted 07 August 2019 - 06:28 AM

I'm glad we brought up housing starts. Bear with me for a moment.

 

In a municipality like CoV, the majority of housing (~90%) is in the form of high-density, multi-unit dwellings that require between 2-4 years of construction from start to finish with the average being roughly 30-36 months for the bulk of new density in a concrete building. If we take 4,200 housing starts between 2011 and 2018, anywhere from 1,200 to roughly 3,500-units would still be underway come 2018 and uninhabitable given construction timelines, particularly how delayed they have been since 2016.

 

In Langford, though, you have a much higher ratio of single-family-dwellings than you do high-density units (~6 months for construction) and significantly fewer high-density concrete buildings, meaning the woodframe projects that do go up in Langford require less construction time overall (approximately 18 months for a typical 60-100-unit woodframe rental in Langford). Langford also has a higher occupant ratio per dwelling (2.36 vs Victoria's 1.74).

 

What this boils down to, is if Victoria had a population rise of 9,300 but Langford 8,900 according to BC Stats' estimate and both municipalities had the same housing starts, Langford should, according to its occupant density and faster rate of construction, have grown much faster than the CoV.

 

Maybe what's happening is you have more pent-up demand for apartment dwellings in Langford (i.e. the kid wants to move out of mom and dad's home on Bear Mountain, but wants to stay on the Westshore) so he rents an apartment in downtown Langford?

 

garryoak, do you have data for housing completions, not starts for that period?


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#384 garryoak

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Posted 07 August 2019 - 02:58 PM

Sorry, the only stats I have seen are for housing starts and for building permits (which lag even further behind completions).

 

I had thought about the lag (that's why I didn't include housing starts from 2018, since I figured it was unlikely that those would translate into occupied housing units in the same year).  I agree that the lag for high-rise condos could  easily be 2 years or more.  That would also mean you may need to look at housing starts starting in 2009 or 2010 in order to align with population growth starting in 2011.



#385 Mike K.

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Posted 07 August 2019 - 03:19 PM

There’s also the definition of what constitutes a housing start.

Some data suppliers begin the countdown from the moment a building permit is issued (which can be many months before the development site is even cleared). Others from the moment excavation begins, and others still from the moment concrete is poured for the foundation or the first forms for the first concrete pour are positioned. It’s a bit of a Wild West in that regard.

In terms of housing starts, the period between 2009 and 2011 was sort of a no-man’s land. The 2008 collapse stalled just about everything that was in planning, and whatever was already under construction moved towards completion but had a hard time finding buyers (rentals weren’t yet a major trend). It was in that period that the census attributed only 3,600 to the entire core’s population uplift while the Westshore saw 10,200.


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#386 Mike K.

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Posted 07 August 2019 - 03:31 PM

One metric to consider is in the 2011 census the CoV had 47,691 dwellings. By 2016 that number increased to 49,212, or 1,521-units of additional housing.

 

Langford had 12,731 in 2011 and 14,906 in 2016, a difference of 2,175 (654 more than in the CoV).

 

This is what I mean when I say I'm dumfounded/perplexed by the BC Stats data. It just doesn't jive at all with what the census data reveals, and one would think a figure like completed dwelling units is a standardized number based on property taxation/strata/land titles data.


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