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Victoria population discussion | Census data | CRD projections


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#381 Mike K.

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Posted 06 August 2019 - 12:06 PM

I don't know if I can take the BC estimates seriously in that regard. Where would 25k people have situated themselves for the core to have grown by such a massive (relatively) figure and during years of near-zero vacancy rates?

 

And don't get me wrong, I'd like to get to the bottom of how these figures are calculated. I'm glad you raised these figures, but I have a hard time believing 25,000 people have moved to/been born in the five core municipalities over 7 years when the entire Capital Region grew by fewer than 24,000 people between 2011 and 2016, according to the census.

 

Welcome to the VV, btw!


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#382 garryoak

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Posted 07 August 2019 - 05:55 AM

Thanks. 

 

According to BC Stats, the post-census estimates are developed by starting with the census data then adjusting for undercount (Statistics Canada does post-census surveys to determine this) to provide the census year estimates.  Subsequent years are then estimated by looking at vital statistics (births and deaths) along with administrative records (such as income tax records) and residential electricity hook-ups, which are good indicators of migration between regions.

 

Housing starts for the period 2011-17 seem to generally back up the BC Stats population estimates, at least for City of Victoria and Langford.  During that period, the City of Victoria had 4,170 housing starts while Langford had 4,161.  That's roughly in line with the estimated 2011-18 population increase of +9,278 for City of Victoria versus +8,918 for Langford.  



#383 Mike K.

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Posted 07 August 2019 - 06:28 AM

I'm glad we brought up housing starts. Bear with me for a moment.

 

In a municipality like CoV, the majority of housing (~90%) is in the form of high-density, multi-unit dwellings that require between 2-4 years of construction from start to finish with the average being roughly 30-36 months for the bulk of new density in a concrete building. If we take 4,200 housing starts between 2011 and 2018, anywhere from 1,200 to roughly 3,500-units would still be underway come 2018 and uninhabitable given construction timelines, particularly how delayed they have been since 2016.

 

In Langford, though, you have a much higher ratio of single-family-dwellings than you do high-density units (~6 months for construction) and significantly fewer high-density concrete buildings, meaning the woodframe projects that do go up in Langford require less construction time overall (approximately 18 months for a typical 60-100-unit woodframe rental in Langford). Langford also has a higher occupant ratio per dwelling (2.36 vs Victoria's 1.74).

 

What this boils down to, is if Victoria had a population rise of 9,300 but Langford 8,900 according to BC Stats' estimate and both municipalities had the same housing starts, Langford should, according to its occupant density and faster rate of construction, have grown much faster than the CoV.

 

Maybe what's happening is you have more pent-up demand for apartment dwellings in Langford (i.e. the kid wants to move out of mom and dad's home on Bear Mountain, but wants to stay on the Westshore) so he rents an apartment in downtown Langford?

 

garryoak, do you have data for housing completions, not starts for that period?


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#384 garryoak

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Posted 07 August 2019 - 02:58 PM

Sorry, the only stats I have seen are for housing starts and for building permits (which lag even further behind completions).

 

I had thought about the lag (that's why I didn't include housing starts from 2018, since I figured it was unlikely that those would translate into occupied housing units in the same year).  I agree that the lag for high-rise condos could  easily be 2 years or more.  That would also mean you may need to look at housing starts starting in 2009 or 2010 in order to align with population growth starting in 2011.



#385 Mike K.

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Posted 07 August 2019 - 03:19 PM

There’s also the definition of what constitutes a housing start.

Some data suppliers begin the countdown from the moment a building permit is issued (which can be many months before the development site is even cleared). Others from the moment excavation begins, and others still from the moment concrete is poured for the foundation or the first forms for the first concrete pour are positioned. It’s a bit of a Wild West in that regard.

In terms of housing starts, the period between 2009 and 2011 was sort of a no-man’s land. The 2008 collapse stalled just about everything that was in planning, and whatever was already under construction moved towards completion but had a hard time finding buyers (rentals weren’t yet a major trend). It was in that period that the census attributed only 3,600 to the entire core’s population uplift while the Westshore saw 10,200.


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#386 Mike K.

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Posted 07 August 2019 - 03:31 PM

One metric to consider is in the 2011 census the CoV had 47,691 dwellings. By 2016 that number increased to 49,212, or 1,521-units of additional housing.

 

Langford had 12,731 in 2011 and 14,906 in 2016, a difference of 2,175 (654 more than in the CoV).

 

This is what I mean when I say I'm dumfounded/perplexed by the BC Stats data. It just doesn't jive at all with what the census data reveals, and one would think a figure like completed dwelling units is a standardized number based on property taxation/strata/land titles data.


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#387 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 13 February 2020 - 05:53 PM

EQr1n-FXkAANAJi.jpeg

 

Newly released 2019 population rankings for Canada’s cities. 72% of the country’s population now lives in one of the 37 metropolitan areas, which are growing three times faster than the rest of the country.



#388 Mike K.

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Posted 13 February 2020 - 07:39 PM

Wow! Saskatoon has really surged. Not that long ago it and Regina weren’t that far apart.

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#389 Hotel Mike

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Posted 14 February 2020 - 09:14 AM

Saskatoon is a much nicer looking city than Regina. The river flowing through Saskatoon with its riverbank parks gives it a nice feel compared to Regina's forever flat feeling.


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#390 Bernard

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Posted 14 February 2020 - 09:53 AM

Saskatoon is a much nicer looking city than Regina. The river flowing through Saskatoon with its riverbank parks gives it a nice feel compared to Regina's forever flat feeling.

Saskatoon is also more of the business centre of the province and business has been doing well.   In the last 20 years there are many years in which Saskatoon was the fastest growing GDP of cities in Canada.    Saskatoon is the corporate home to the largest potash company in the world and the largest publicly trade uranium mining company in the world.

 

That said, Regina has also grown a lot, it had a population of less than 200,000 in 2011 and is now over 30% higher, Saskatoon has grown 50% over the same time.



#391 Mike K.

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Posted 14 February 2020 - 12:06 PM

Yes indeed! Incredible growth for those cities. I recall some years back as I was finishing university in the mid-00s that Saskatchewan started a campaign to draw young graduates. Obviously it's working.

 

Just as an aside, one of YYJ's airport execs now heads up the Regina International Airport, as shoeflack mentioned not that long ago, and Matt R. has talked about sending one of his kids to study in Saskatoon.


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#392 Matt R.

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Posted 14 February 2020 - 12:12 PM

Saskatoon isn’t a choice, it’s the only vet school open to her. Lol.

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#393 UDeMan

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Posted 14 February 2020 - 12:16 PM

Have a few coworkers that were from Saskatchewan, when they retired they sold their house here and went to live in Regina or Saskatoon.

 

They were able to sell their houses here and buy nice places there for half the price and have money left over.

 

Also, easy travel to other cities just a few hours away by car or train.


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#394 Mike K.

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Posted 14 February 2020 - 12:19 PM

To each his own, for sure.


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#395 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 14 February 2020 - 04:32 PM

It Is Indeed Hard to Date in Victoria, But Not For Who You’d Think

 

Despite Victoria famously having more women than men, it actually might be harder for young heterosexual men to find love than any other group.

 

https://www.capnews....ntines-day-2020

 

i guess the census does not ask us our sexual orientation.  but statscan has some figures here:

The Canadian Community Health Survey, Cycle 2.1, was the first Statistics Canada survey to include a question on sexual orientation.

  • 1.7% — The percentage of Canadians aged 18 to 59 who reported in 2014 that they consider themselves to be homosexual (gay or lesbian).
  • 1.3% — The percentage of Canadians aged 18 to 59 who reported in 2014 that they consider themselves to be bisexual.

 

https://www.statcan..../smr08_203_2015

 

i guess that might be awkward to have sexual orientation on the census.  especially if uncle jake lives over the garage.  or older kids bobby and sue still living at home at 18 and 19.

 

"alright kids and uncle jake gather round it's time to fill out the household census. and you know by law we have to answer every question truthfully.  ok.  bobby sue and jake are you gay straight or bi?  one at a time while i write your answers in beside your birthdate."


Edited by Victoria Watcher, 14 February 2020 - 04:39 PM.


#396 Rob Randall

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Posted 14 February 2020 - 07:39 PM

A box of Jackson-Triggs Merlot and that number jumps to 10%.


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#397 AllseeingEye

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Posted 14 February 2020 - 09:21 PM

Have a few coworkers that were from Saskatchewan, when they retired they sold their house here and went to live in Regina or Saskatoon.

 

They were able to sell their houses here and buy nice places there for half the price and have money left over.

 

Also, easy travel to other cities just a few hours away by car or train.

 

Yup not surprising in the least; the same general attitude permeates many Maritime folks as well. My wife and her very large extended family all live in Regina. And my mother's very large extended family all live in Nova Scotia. All of them, on both sides, have been here at one time or another (sometimes several times), and precisely "0" of them would ever choose to live in BC or Victoria in particular. None of them would give you a plug nickel to live here: too expensive, too isolated (being on an island), and above all "its not home". And all perfectly understandable reasons.

 

That said I have been the other way naturally and while I get the emotional attachment to the prairie - its as big a deal to those folks as the ocean or mountains are to people here - Regina for me was a little underwhelming, has the largest most vicious mosquito's I've ever encountered, and a terrible crime problem especially among city First Nations youth in the north end.

 

Nevertheless I get the attachment to "home". It also had/has a robust economy, and is a younger town compared to Victoria with an average age of under 37. Its easy to see why young folks in particular would be attracted there and to Saskatoon, both with healthy economies and affordable cost of living relative to here. In terms of home ownership particularly in both Saskatchewan and NS you aren't bent over in perpetuity taking it up you-know-where when it comes to costs as we are in SW BC.


Edited by AllseeingEye, 14 February 2020 - 09:21 PM.


#398 Mike K.

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Posted 15 February 2020 - 07:35 AM

I find people in less expensive locales just throw heaps of money into vehicles and “toys” that we aren’t so inclined to do here because of the cost of housing. But then again if you see what happens to a truck that has gone through ten Regina winters I guess you’d need a new one at least every so often while here we drive vehicles until they’re mechanically unable to move!

In the end it all works out.

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