Jump to content

      













Photo

2018 municipal election predictions thread


  • Please log in to reply
102 replies to this topic

#1 Mike K.

Mike K.
  • Administrator
  • 50,519 posts

Posted 15 October 2018 - 08:19 PM

Here we go, voice your predictions for the 2018 municipal election.

 

You can choose mayoral or council winners, state actual vote figures or positions, or only reference one individual, etc. It's totally up to you.

 

I.e.

 

Mayor John Doe is re-elected.

 

or

 

Mayor John Doe will lose with 35% of the vote whole Opponent Jane Doe wins with 39% of the vote.

 

Have fun!


  • David Bratzer likes this

Know it all.
Citified.ca is Victoria's most comprehensive research resource for new-build homes and commercial spaces.


#2 lanforod

lanforod
  • Member
  • 7,202 posts
  • LocationSaanich

Posted 15 October 2018 - 09:31 PM

Was waiting for this thread...

 

Victoria:

Hammond

Isitt

Loveday

Alto

Thornton-Joe

Andrew

Madoff

Young

Johal

 

Saanich:

Atwell

Plant

Brice

Harper

Mersereau

Burton

Chambers

Sharma

Newby

 

I also put the councillors in the order I expect for vote totals.


Edited by lanforod, 15 October 2018 - 09:33 PM.

  • Mike K. and Rob Randall like this

#3 Mike K.

Mike K.
  • Administrator
  • 50,519 posts

Posted 15 October 2018 - 10:05 PM

Voter turnout will rise to 29,000 from about 25,000 in 2014.

McGuigan gets 2,300 votes, no-show Rob Duncan makes off with 600. Hammond gets 9,400 votes.

Loveday, Isitt, T-J, Young, Alto and Madoff are re-elected. Andrew and Lore are the newly-elected councillors, with Young scoring last and Alto first.

Know it all.
Citified.ca is Victoria's most comprehensive research resource for new-build homes and commercial spaces.


#4 nerka

nerka
  • Member
  • 1,234 posts

Posted 15 October 2018 - 10:44 PM

Helps

 

Isitt

Alto

Loveday

Thornton-Joe

Andrew

Madoff

Young

Dubow


  • Rob Randall and tedward like this

#5 Sparky

Sparky

    GET OFF MY LAWN

  • Moderator
  • 10,575 posts

Posted 16 October 2018 - 04:52 AM

Langford

Stew Young
  • Rob Randall, rjag, LJ and 6 others like this

#6 Victoria Watcher

Victoria Watcher
  • Member
  • 5,926 posts

Posted 16 October 2018 - 04:54 AM

highlands - same as current

 

esquimalt - desjardins

 

victoria - in order 

 

hammond

geoghegan

helps

mcguigan

 

not in order:

 

isitt

reeve

andrew

t-j

alto

young

madoff

loveday


Edited by Victoria Watcher, 16 October 2018 - 04:58 AM.

  • NotHudsonMack likes this

#7 John M.

John M.

    John M.

  • Member
  • 321 posts

Posted 16 October 2018 - 08:54 AM

Victoria

Helps

Isitt
Loveday
Andrew
Alto
Young
Thorton-Joe
Madoff
Dubow

Saanich

Atwell

Plant
Brice
Harper
Burton
Brownoff
Mesereau
De Vries
Chambers

Oak Bay

Jensen

Braithwaite
Ney
Green
Zhelka
Patterson
Stinson

#8 spanky123

spanky123
  • Member
  • 11,625 posts

Posted 16 October 2018 - 09:22 AM

Voter turnout will rise to 29,000 from about 25,000 in 2014.

McGuigan gets 2,300 votes, no-show Rob Duncan makes off with 600. Hammond gets 9,400 votes.

Loveday, Isitt, T-J, Young, Alto and Madoff are re-elected. Andrew and Lore are the newly-elected councillors, with Young scoring last and Alto first.

 

I think that turnout in Saanich and Victoria will be much higher than 2014. I heard that lineups for advance polling in Saanich exceeded an hour all day yesterday and that just as many people who voted walked away. Victoria hasn't been quite as bad but not far off. There have also been at least 2x-3x as many locations open, with extended hours, as there were last time as well.


  • rmpeers likes this

#9 spanky123

spanky123
  • Member
  • 11,625 posts

Posted 16 October 2018 - 09:24 AM

Was waiting for this thread...

 

Victoria:

Hammond

Isitt

Loveday

Alto

Thornton-Joe

Andrew

Madoff

Young

Johal

 

Saanich:

Atwell

Plant

Brice

Harper

Mersereau

Burton

Chambers

Sharma

Newby

 

I also put the councillors in the order I expect for vote totals.

 

I agree on Victoria but think that Haynes wins in Saanich and that Brownoff squeaks in ahead of Newby. Ned Taylor is a wildcard for me. He might take out Sharma if enough voters view him as the grandson next door and want to throw the kid a bone.


Edited by spanky123, 16 October 2018 - 09:25 AM.


#10 nagel

nagel
  • Member
  • 5,751 posts

Posted 16 October 2018 - 09:33 AM

I don't see how Sharma has gotten a lot of presence.  I'd expect Taylor and/or de Vries to do better than him.


  • John M. and NotHudsonMack like this

#11 Baro

Baro
  • Member
  • 4,317 posts

Posted 16 October 2018 - 11:08 AM

EvTt4GY.png


  • John M., nerka and Edward Skelton like this
"beats greezy have baked donut-dough"

#12 Mike K.

Mike K.
  • Administrator
  • 50,519 posts

Posted 16 October 2018 - 11:09 AM

Such sloppy use of the bucket fill tool.


  • Matt R. and Bingo like this

Know it all.
Citified.ca is Victoria's most comprehensive research resource for new-build homes and commercial spaces.


#13 Baro

Baro
  • Member
  • 4,317 posts

Posted 16 October 2018 - 11:11 AM

Such sloppy use of the bucket fill tool.

 

Please clap :(

I didn't have photoshop available...


Edited by Baro, 16 October 2018 - 11:11 AM.

  • Mike K., Rob Randall, Bingo and 2 others like this
"beats greezy have baked donut-dough"

#14 Bernard

Bernard
  • Member
  • 4,241 posts
  • LocationVictoria BC

Posted 16 October 2018 - 12:03 PM

  • Victoria - Lisa Helps as mayor.    All six incumbents and Sarah Potts and Stephen Andrew.   Possibly Randie Johal beats out Potts
  • Saanich - Atwell as mayor - council Plant, Brice, Harper, Burton, Jessop and Merssereau - the following people vying for the last two spots - Montgomery, Taylor, Brownoff, Teale,. and Chambers
  • Central Saanich - Windsor as mayor - council Jensen, Paltiel, Graham, King, and Thompson - no idea on the last one
  • Oak Bay - Murdoch as mayor - Braithwiate, Ney, Green, Stinson and Zhelka, last two not sure
  • Esquimalt - Desjardins as mayor - Hundleby, Morrison, Brame, Vermeulen and the last two between Munkacsi, Armour, Greer and Helliwell
  • North Saanich - Orr as mayor - council is an acclamation
  • Sidney - I think Price as mayor but really uncertain - council beyond the 3 incumbents Hailey and Templeman but really more of a guess than anything
  • View Royal - Screech as mayor - with only six candidates it is a really odd race.   I believe Mattson, Kowalewich and Rogers will win and not sure who will get the last spot.   A six-person race makes the electoral math really weird
  • Langford - Young as mayor - council the five incumbents and Wendy Hobbs
  • Colwood - Hamilton as mayor - council - beyond the incumbents I am not sure and I two clouded because there are two candidates Colwood would be lucky to see elected, Baxter and Olsen
  • Metchosin and Highlands are an insult to good governance that they exist at all so I refuse to predict them
  • Sooke - Tait as mayor - yeah, I do not have a good handle on the situation and would be a random guess other than Kasper and Parkinson

  • Rob Randall and nerka like this

#15 FogPub

FogPub
  • Member
  • 350 posts
  • LocationVictoria

Posted 16 October 2018 - 08:17 PM

Victoria mayor:

Helps (40%) over Hammond (35%) by a bit and both over Geoghegan and McGuigan (10% each if they're lucky) by a lot.  The rest carve up the remaining 5+% between themselves.

 

Victoria council:

The six incumbents sail back in and after that it's a complete crapshoot between Andrew, Gardiner, Johal, Lore, and a couple of others for the last two seats.

 

Overall turnout up about 20% over last time.



#16 rjag

rjag
  • Member
  • 5,243 posts
  • LocationSi vis pacem para bellum

Posted 17 October 2018 - 05:50 AM

I hate to say it, but I have a feeling Helps will retain her seat. The vote will be split and she'll pull it off. 

 

And then CoV will be run by a Mayor that will be even more divisive


  • Rob Randall and rmpeers like this

#17 Mike K.

Mike K.
  • Administrator
  • 50,519 posts

Posted 17 October 2018 - 06:18 AM

Helps was voted in as a protest vote. Few knew much about her at the time but she was the only candidate with enough clout and name recognition to pull it off.

 

And despite the anger of the day, Helps squeaked in by the tiniest of margins thanks mostly to the clown.

 

Fast-forwarding to today the public is downright hysterical and public perception makes the Fortin saga seem like a minor nuisance. Things have gotten so serious that even the clown ran under his real name before pulling out the other day.


  • rmpeers likes this

Know it all.
Citified.ca is Victoria's most comprehensive research resource for new-build homes and commercial spaces.


#18 nerka

nerka
  • Member
  • 1,234 posts

Posted 17 October 2018 - 08:12 AM

Helps was voted in as a protest vote. Few knew much about her at the time but she was the only candidate with enough clout and name recognition to pull it off.

Whatever you think of Helps her 2014 win was actually reasonably impressive. She beat an incumbent mayor backed by the full weight of the NDP machine plus another very well funded candidate with much more name recognition than Helps.



#19 Victoria Watcher

Victoria Watcher
  • Member
  • 5,926 posts

Posted 17 October 2018 - 08:19 AM

the other well-funded candidate was about the worst one they (the business community) could have chosen.


  • NotHudsonMack likes this

#20 rmpeers

rmpeers
  • Member
  • 1,238 posts

Posted 17 October 2018 - 08:47 AM

Helps was voted in as a protest vote. Few knew much about her at the time but she was the only candidate with enough clout and name recognition to pull it off.

And despite the anger of the day, Helps squeaked in by the tiniest of margins thanks mostly to the clown.

Fast-forwarding to today the public is downright hysterical and public perception makes the Fortin saga seem like a minor nuisance. Things have gotten so serious that even the clown ran under his real name before pulling out the other day.


And the clown has thrown his support behind Big Mike so, in theory, he may help Helps to win again.

You're not quite at the end of this discussion topic!

Use the page links at the lower-left to go to the next page to read additional posts.
 



0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users