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2018 municipal election predictions thread


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#21 Greg

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Posted 17 October 2018 - 08:48 AM

I think Helps is going to win. We had meetings with both Helps and Hammond at the condo building. Hammond should have been a lock with this demographic. But Helps is really good in a roundtable meeting scenario, she is a genuinely skilled politician. I think she probably won more votes than Hammond from the building.



#22 Mike K.

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Posted 17 October 2018 - 08:49 AM

I just can't see all that much support for Geoghegan. Online polls aside, his campaigning is nowhere near at the scale or the level it should be to pull off a win. But his presence, ironically, is Helps' biggest opportunity at winning the election. I suspect Geoghegan knows this.


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#23 Baro

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Posted 17 October 2018 - 09:10 AM

I have zero clue how to predict the election, there's no polls so all you can do is base things off anecdotes from your own social circles.

 

If everyone under 50 I know are any indication:

Issit and Loveday along with the Together Victoria trio in a massive landslide,  Helps gets in but everyone's just holding their nose while they vote for the inoffensive milquetoast pseudo-progressive centrist.  Maybe now we can finally see some actual progressive policies come out of city hall and tackle housing and homelessness and our city alone will solve global climate change and shut down the entire alberta oil industry.

 

If everyone over 50 I know are any indication:

Massive New Council sweep, the car driving right-minded citizens have had enough with this radical SJW agenda and the war on cars and statues.  Finally we'll have fiscal prudence and clean up the junkies.

 

If signs are any indication:

Hammond gets a fairly solid majority in the election, but a large portrait of mike geoghegan's smiling face for some reason has to be hung in the council chamber.


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#24 RFS

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Posted 17 October 2018 - 10:00 AM

Any predictions on the frustratingly vague referendum question?

#25 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 17 October 2018 - 10:07 AM

Any predictions on the frustratingly vague referendum question?

 

70% victoria

65% saanich


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#26 nerka

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Posted 17 October 2018 - 10:48 AM

the other well-funded candidate was about the worst one they (the business community) could have chosen.

True - name recognition isn't so helpful if it comes along with a poor reputation.



#27 Benn

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Posted 17 October 2018 - 02:16 PM

Saanich:

 

Haynes squeaks past Atwell

 

and in approximate order:

 

Plant

Harper

Mersereau

Chambers

Taylor

Brownoff

Teale

Brice

 

Victoria:

 

Helps wins with sizable majority



#28 SaanichBoy

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Posted 17 October 2018 - 02:30 PM

Saanich: Mayor - Hayes

               Council -Merseruau

                             Plant

                             Brice

                             Bondaroff

                             Newby

                             Harper

                             Lord

                             Taylor



#29 Belleprincess

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Posted 17 October 2018 - 08:27 PM

Helps

Issit
Loveday
Young
Pamdoff
Andrews
Collins
Reeve
Johal

#30 nerka

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Posted 18 October 2018 - 08:08 AM

Helps

Issit
Loveday
Young
Pamdoff
Andrews
Collins
Reeve
Johal

I'd be shocked if Alto didn't win a spot.  She has good left support but is palatable to some in the centre as well.


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#31 RFS

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Posted 18 October 2018 - 12:52 PM

Mayor, too close to say for certain but I suspect Hammond underperforms expectations, Geoghegan exceeds expectations, and helps wins.

Council, all incumbents win plus Grace Lore and Stephen Andrew
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#32 Rob Randall

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Posted 18 October 2018 - 02:29 PM

^That's pretty much what I was going to say with the exception that I'm not 100% sure who's going to take that last spot--Lore or Reeve.


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#33 RFS

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Posted 18 October 2018 - 08:17 PM

Another prediction: Jordan Reichert does big numbers. The Vegan community in Victoria is huge and very active

#34 Rob Randall

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Posted 18 October 2018 - 08:24 PM

Another prediction: Jordan Reichert does big numbers. The Vegan community in Victoria is huge and very active

 

He will get 624 votes, mark my words. I was going to say 524 but his sign has a cat's paw on it and that will get some cat lover votes.

 

Sign Watch, Rare Pokemon Edition:

 

Two rare signs spotted: Riga Godron's camouflage sign urging you to join the Godron Squadron. She will get 230 votes.  And a hand-painted Rose Henry sign. She's good for 1,255 votes. 


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#35 Belleprincess

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Posted 18 October 2018 - 09:07 PM

Another prediction: Jordan Reichert does big numbers. The Vegan community in Victoria is huge and very active


Ugh forgot about that guy. Would never vote for him (carriage tour debacle.) meet him at an all candidates meeting - very intelligent, well spoken.

#36 Belleprincess

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Posted 18 October 2018 - 09:32 PM

I just can't see all that much support for Geoghegan. Online polls aside, his campaigning is nowhere near at the scale or the level it should be to pull off a win. But his presence, ironically, is Helps' biggest opportunity at winning the election. I suspect Geoghegan knows this.


Though, he keeps claiming that he’s in the lead. strategically - so the “anti-helps” votes will come his way. Seems like it might be working. Still think Hammond will come out ahead of him. However, if he wasn’t running - it would be a guaranteed win for Hammond. Frustrating

#37 gstc84

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Posted 18 October 2018 - 10:01 PM

Sign Watch, Rare Pokemon Edition:

Two rare signs spotted: Riga Godron's camouflage sign urging you to join the Godron Squadron. She will get 230 votes. And a hand-painted Rose Henry sign. She's good for 1,255 votes.


I spotted a tartan-patterned Doug Stewart sign the other day. How many votes are the t-shirt loving, immigrant hating community good for, Rob?
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#38 Rob Randall

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Posted 19 October 2018 - 06:03 AM

^Unlike last time, Stewart got zero media coverage this year, therefore he will get 738 votes.


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#39 Bob Fugger

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Posted 19 October 2018 - 07:09 AM

Ugh forgot about that guy. Would never vote for him (carriage tour debacle.) meet him at an all candidates meeting - very intelligent, well spoken.

 

He also refuses to acknowledge anyone's argument or position other than his own.



#40 Bernard

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Posted 19 October 2018 - 10:47 AM

I have to say, the set of council candidates in both Victoria and Saanich seem weaker to me this time than in the past four or five elections



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