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2018 municipal election predictions thread


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#61 Rob Randall

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Posted 20 October 2018 - 10:35 AM

My 2018 Victoria Election Predictions:

Mayor:
Lisa Helps 9106
---
Stephen Hammond 9075
Mike Geoghegan 4102
Bruce McGuigan 3020
Rob Duncan 1027
Rymo 601
Saul Anderson 530
Alexander Schmid 323
David Johnston 297
Krzysztof Zmuda 232

Council:
Ben Isitt 15110
Charlayne Thornton-Joe 11638
Jeremy Loveday 11982
Marianne Alto 11204
Stephen Andrew 10683
Pam Madoff 9750
Geoff Young 9639
Andrew Reeve 8768
----
Grace Lore 7941
Sharmarke Dubow 7855
Randie Johal 7203
Gary Alberts 7215
Marg Gardiner 6877
Sarah Potts 6762
Laurel Collins 6781
Darlene Archibald 5622
Sean Leitenberg 4710
Anna King 4370
Rose Henry 3298
Ted Smith 3127
Jordan Reichert 2688
Steve Filopovic 2386
Jessie Jimenez 2185
Riga Godron 1359
Delmar Martay 1087
Doug Stewart 1034
Edison Kahakauwila 845
William Tate 811
James Harasymow 802


"[Randall's] aesthetic poll was more accurate than his political acumen"

-Tom Hawthorne, Toronto Globe and Mail


#62 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 20 October 2018 - 10:42 AM

you are giving too many votes to the very bottom there.  otherwise that's quite a nice piece of work.


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#63 vortoozo

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Posted 20 October 2018 - 11:15 AM

Oddly specific!


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#64 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 20 October 2018 - 11:23 AM

maybe he works for the voting machine company so he waited for 3 hours of data then extrapolated it out.


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#65 Belleprincess

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Posted 20 October 2018 - 01:07 PM

My 2018 Victoria Election Predictions:

Mayor:
Lisa Helps 9106
---
Stephen Hammond 9075
Mike Geoghegan 4102
Bruce McGuigan 3020
Rob Duncan 1027
Rymo 601
Saul Anderson 530
Alexander Schmid 323
David Johnston 297
Krzysztof Zmuda 232

Council:
Ben Isitt 15110
Charlayne Thornton-Joe 11638
Jeremy Loveday 11982
Marianne Alto 11204
Stephen Andrew 10683
Pam Madoff 9750
Geoff Young 9639
Andrew Reeve 8768
----
Grace Lore 7941
Sharmarke Dubow 7855
Randie Johal 7203
Gary Alberts 7215
Marg Gardiner 6877
Sarah Potts 6762
Laurel Collins 6781
Darlene Archibald 5622
Sean Leitenberg 4710
Anna King 4370
Rose Henry 3298
Ted Smith 3127
Jordan Reichert 2688
Steve Filopovic 2386
Jessie Jimenez 2185
Riga Godron 1359
Delmar Martay 1087
Doug Stewart 1034
Edison Kahakauwila 845
William Tate 811
James Harasymow 802


Whoa. You put a lot of thought into this. I think Johnson will have the least. Zmuda will have more than schmit. The split between helps and Hammond shakes me to my very core. Thanks for the nausea

#66 Rob Randall

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Posted 20 October 2018 - 02:41 PM

you are giving too many votes to the very bottom there.  otherwise that's quite a nice piece of work.

 

Perhaps, but I put a couple more sub-1000 candidates on there than there usually are. Usually only one or two candidates are sad enough to garner less than 1000 votes, I have three and Stewart barely over 1000.

You could make the argument that this year there are two strong slates and several well-qualified candidates, so you could pull a few hundred from the bottom feeders like Stewart and Harasymow and add them to the higher-ups like Reeve, Lore and Young. It could be a real fight for that last spot. It's only a fraction of a percentage point between winning a seat and losing. So you may be right there.

 

Oddly specific!

 

That's me.

 

Whoa. You put a lot of thought into this. I think Johnson will have the least. Zmuda will have more than schmit. The split between helps and Hammond shakes me to my very core. Thanks for the nausea

 

I could have put Johnson last but he may pick up a tiny bit of homeless sympathy, plus Harasymow purposely runs a terrible campaign--he refuses to even knock on doors, which baffles me.

 

Zmuda may very well beat Schmid. 


Edited by Rob Randall, 20 October 2018 - 02:43 PM.

"[Randall's] aesthetic poll was more accurate than his political acumen"

-Tom Hawthorne, Toronto Globe and Mail


#67 rmpeers

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Posted 20 October 2018 - 03:28 PM

After Rob's post, which I hope is not as chillingly accurate as it appears... any thoughts on what concerned citizens could do to push for tighter rules about who can run? Not a huge fee necessarily but maybe a requirement to gather a plausible # of verifiable signatures to prove you're an actual contender.
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#68 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 20 October 2018 - 03:43 PM

just make it more signatures.  do you have 4 years to get them? whatever it is make it a long time span but make the number higher.



#69 Jacques Cadé

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Posted 20 October 2018 - 04:04 PM

BC law allows larger municipalities to increase the number of required signatures up to a maximum of 25, which the City of Victoria currently requires. In the past Victoria Council has debated requiring candidates to also put up a $100 refundable deposit, but rejected that because it would discourage impoverished citizens from running.


Edited by Jacques Cadé, 20 October 2018 - 04:06 PM.


#70 spanky123

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Posted 20 October 2018 - 04:16 PM

I think you are missing 5,000+ votes Rob. Based on the advance polls and massive turnout today I think we are going to see more than 30,000 votes. I see Hammond closer to 12K while Helps still has her 9K base.



#71 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 20 October 2018 - 04:50 PM

please re do your totals rob.



#72 Rob Randall

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Posted 20 October 2018 - 05:30 PM

I think you are missing 5,000+ votes Rob. Based on the advance polls and massive turnout today I think we are going to see more than 30,000 votes. I see Hammond closer to 12K while Helps still has her 9K base.

 

I actually reduced it down from 28,000 or so as I suspected turnout would be even or down slightly over the very high turnout last time. I thought voters would not be enthused about the mayoral candidates and a few thousand would stay home.

 

Reports about hour-long waits throws that theory out. I may have greatly underestimated turnout.


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"[Randall's] aesthetic poll was more accurate than his political acumen"

-Tom Hawthorne, Toronto Globe and Mail


#73 spanky123

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Posted 20 October 2018 - 05:36 PM

I actually reduced it down from 28,000 or so as I suspected turnout would be even or down slightly over the very high turnout last time. I thought voters would not be enthused about the mayoral candidates and a few thousand would stay home.

 

Reports about hour-long waits throws that theory out. I may have greatly underestimated turnout.

 

Nice weather always helps as well. 



#74 Rob Randall

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Posted 20 October 2018 - 05:41 PM

I think you are missing 5,000+ votes Rob. Based on the advance polls and massive turnout today I think we are going to see more than 30,000 votes. I see Hammond closer to 12K while Helps still has her 9K base.

 

If I am short a few thousand I'm doubling down and saying those new voters are due to Helps and TogetherVictoria recruitment efforts so they won't help Hammond much.

 

Has anyone said I've been wrong before? Besides the Globe and Mail?


Edited by Rob Randall, 20 October 2018 - 05:43 PM.

"[Randall's] aesthetic poll was more accurate than his political acumen"

-Tom Hawthorne, Toronto Globe and Mail


#75 Baro

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Posted 20 October 2018 - 05:45 PM

If I am short a few thousand I'm doubling down and saying those new voters are due to Helps and TogetherVictoria recruitment efforts.

 

Has anyone said I've been wrong before? Besides the Globe and Mail?

 

I'd think this as well.  I know tons of people who normally don't really bother with local elections (why?!) suddenly energized.  Even though Hammond is no arch-conservative there's a lot of fear about a boomer bikelash in this election by a lot of younger people I know.  A lot of renters are also realizing they finally have a good chance to vote for some people that aren't owners or landlords themselves.  The housing/rental crisis has brought a lot of people out of the woodwork.


"beats greezy have baked donut-dough"

#76 Belleprincess

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Posted 20 October 2018 - 06:07 PM

After Rob's post, which I hope is not as chillingly accurate as it appears... any thoughts on what concerned citizens could do to push for tighter rules about who can run? Not a huge fee necessarily but maybe a requirement to gather a plausible # of verifiable signatures to prove you're an actual contender.


$2000 to run. 100 -200 signatures from residents. Frustrating at mayoral debates - heard some great things from the “fringe” candidates but regardless, I would rather focus on serious contenders

#77 Belleprincess

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Posted 20 October 2018 - 06:09 PM

I'd think this as well. I know tons of people who normally don't really bother with local elections (why?!) suddenly energized. Even though Hammond is no arch-conservative there's a lot of fear about a boomer bikelash in this election by a lot of younger people I know. A lot of renters are also realizing they finally have a good chance to vote for some people that aren't owners or landlords themselves. The housing/rental crisis has brought a lot of people out of the woodwork.


Agree! People keep telling me it’s a good sign because it means people are “angry” - however, I feel like this TV group has pumped some interest in the election - and the millennial sjws are out in full force

#78 grantpalin

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Posted 20 October 2018 - 06:11 PM

I voted today in Saanich at Campus View Elementary. Was in and out within ten minutes. People were still arriving while I was leaving.



#79 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 20 October 2018 - 07:44 PM

Sidney's Price thinks something funny is up.  He's been defeated badly.

 

He says some council candidates that did not even campaign have won seats.


Edited by Victoria Watcher, 20 October 2018 - 07:45 PM.


#80 Benn

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Posted 20 October 2018 - 10:09 PM

8/9 on my predictions in Saanich. Didn't see de Vries. Great result.
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