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2018 municipal election predictions thread


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#81 57WestHills

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Posted 20 October 2018 - 10:11 PM

The most upvoted post I saw this week on the Victoria sub was a response to a Hammond supporter which said something I really resonated with, at least in part, (I'm paraphrasing here) "I don't really think Helps did a good job. I don't think she did as bad as Facebook says. I cannot find a platform for Hammond and all the ads just say he isn't Helps. So I'm voting Helps". Thats one specific observation but seems to be representative of the general trend.


Bit of a leap here - but, I really think what's above drove a lot of Helps' win tonight.
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#82 punk cannonballer

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Posted 20 October 2018 - 10:25 PM

Bit of a leap here - but, I really think what's above drove a lot of Helps' win tonight.

A lot of people (myself included) would prefer to see forward movement over what sounded like someone governing with the platform of undoing the past 4 years.


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#83 57WestHills

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Posted 20 October 2018 - 10:35 PM

A lot of people (myself included) would prefer to see forward movement over what sounded like someone governing with the platform of undoing the past 4 years.


But a lot more appear to have disagreed with you.

#84 punk cannonballer

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Posted 20 October 2018 - 10:43 PM

But a lot more appear to have disagreed with you.

Uh, I don't follow. I voted Helps. Seems to me that tonight was about a rousing rejection of the New Council crowd. I have my issues with the incumbents but I'd rather align myself with them than want wholesale change. I see this result as a doubling down on the status quo.



#85 57WestHills

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Posted 20 October 2018 - 10:49 PM

Uh, I don't follow. I voted Helps. Seems to me that tonight was about a rousing rejection of the New Council crowd. I have my issues with the incumbents but I'd rather align myself with them than want wholesale change. I see this result as a doubling down on the status quo.


Ah I may have misunderstood your post. I voted with exactly the same thought as youve outlined here.
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#86 Rob Randall

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Posted 21 October 2018 - 11:02 AM

Time for me to take my licks. I should have moved more votes from the bottom up to the top.

 

Lisa Helps

Rob predicts 9106, actual: 12642

Correct prediction but way underestimated. A clean win, not affected by vote-splitting. A strong get-out-the-vote effort by her team.

---
Stephen Hammond

Rob predicts 9075, actual: 8717

Pretty good call! I knew he had strong support but not enough to win. Good numbers for a relatively new challenger.

 

Mike Geoghegan

Rob predicts 4102, actual: 4335

Not bad. I think he got stronger as time went on.

 

Bruce McGuigan

Rob predicts 3020; actual 2377

He did worse than I thought he would. A rinky-dink campaign for a relative unknown thinking he could be mayor--with the expected result. He should have come out of the box big but couldn't.

 

Rob Duncan

Rob predicts 1027; actual: 527

He did way worse. I guess people still see him as a single issue/joke candidate.

 

Rymo

Rob predicts 601, actual: 71

I was way, way off. He got 2108 in 2014 running as a conventional council candidate. His CSV installations and video did nothing for him. I doubt even his friends, clients and family voted for him. Absolute last on the results list, he only did slightly better than Shebib in 2014.

 

Saul Anderson

Rob predicts 530, actual: 219

I thought he had a few more fans. His t-shirts are great! Clearly people aren't wasting their votes on non-serious candidates.

 

Alexander Schmid

Rob predicts 323, actual: 231

Overestimated a bit again. I don't really know what this guy's deal is.

 

David Johnston

Rob predicts 297, actual: 119

I guess I thought he'd pick up a few more homeless sympathizers. I correctly guessed he'd be second from the bottom.

 

Krzysztof Zmuda

Rob predicts 232, actual: 148

Over, but not bad. I thought he'd pick up a few customer votes and some hardcore mad-as-hell voters than he actually did.


Edited by Rob Randall, 21 October 2018 - 11:05 AM.

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#87 Belleprincess

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Posted 21 October 2018 - 11:18 AM

Can someone please explain the issit thing to me? Why does he have such a following?
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#88 Sparky

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Posted 21 October 2018 - 11:40 AM

^^ I hit the “Like” button but the again I like most of your posts.

You are one of my favorite members of this forum.

Thank you for your predictions and your review. How are you at the racetrack?
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#89 Mike K.

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Posted 21 October 2018 - 06:38 PM

Rob Duncan stepped down just before the election and endorsed Geoghegan.

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#90 tedward

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Posted 22 October 2018 - 10:27 AM

Can someone please explain the issit thing to me? Why does he have such a following?

 

Because the right-wing fear-mongering is so ridiculously off-base, anyone reading VV would be forgiven for thinking he is a hard-core Communist out to destroy our city. Your perception is being manipulated thus making it hard to understand the truth.

 

The truth, as I keep pointing out, is that he is a personable and effective member of council who looks after his constituents. He leans left in a city filled with large numbers of people who also lean left. He supports development based on principle and seeking the best for the whole city rather than simply rubber-stamping any idea put in front of council by developers whose sole concern is making a buck. 

Try actually talking to him and you will quickly discover he is not in this to enrich himself but to make our community a better place to live. I don't agree with him on everything but I voted for him (and for Steven Andrews BTW). 


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#91 spanky123

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Posted 22 October 2018 - 10:30 AM

Because the right-wing fear-mongering is so ridiculously off-base, anyone reading VV would be forgiven for thinking he is a hard-core Communist out to destroy our city. Your perception is being manipulated thus making it hard to understand the truth.

 

The truth, as I keep pointing out, is that he is a personable and effective member of council who looks after his constituents. He leans left in a city filled with large numbers of people who also lean left. He supports development based on principle and seeking the best for the whole city rather than simply rubber-stamping any idea put in front of council by developers whose sole concern is making a buck. 

Try actually talking to him and you will quickly discover he is not in this to enrich himself but to make our community a better place to live. I don't agree with him on everything but I voted for him (and for Steven Andrews BTW). 

 

Fair enough but for the past 4 years he has voted for "rubber-stamping any idea put in front of council by developers whose sole concern is making a buck."



#92 Mike K.

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Posted 22 October 2018 - 10:57 AM

Because the right-wing fear-mongering is so ridiculously off-base, anyone reading VV would be forgiven for thinking he is a hard-core Communist out to destroy our city. Your perception is being manipulated thus making it hard to understand the truth.

 

Ben has voted against so many projects that I've lost track of them. He is also on record advocating for heights maxing out at 10-12-storeys, and votes based on those heights.

 

Are you able to recall the projects Ben has supported?


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#93 tedward

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Posted 23 October 2018 - 07:14 AM

Fair enough but for the past 4 years he has voted for "rubber-stamping any idea put in front of council by developers whose sole concern is making a buck."

 

 

Ben has voted against so many projects that I've lost track of them. He is also on record advocating for heights maxing out at 10-12-storeys, and votes based on those heights.

 

 

Interesting how the first two responses have diametrically opposed views of his voting record. LOL

The point is, VV has become a right-wing echo chamber where wishful thinking on politics has replaced reality. The success of Ben, Jeremy and Lisa (since apparently we are all being familiar) was declared impossible and yet the were all easily reelected. 


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#94 spanky123

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Posted 23 October 2018 - 07:19 AM

The point is, VV has become a right-wing echo chamber where wishful thinking on politics has replaced reality. The success of Ben, Jeremy and Lisa (since apparently we are all being familiar) was declared impossible and yet the were all easily reelected. 

 

Yet we welcome your views! 

 

I entirely admit that I did not see the depth to which identity politics plays a role locally and I also thought that the voter turnout % would be much higher than 2014. Both those misses factored heavily into the slate that we have. What hasn't changed though is my opinion that Government interference in economic cycles is a bad thing and will ultimately fail. If that is right wing then so be it.



#95 rjag

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Posted 23 October 2018 - 07:42 AM

Interesting how the first two responses have diametrically opposed views of his voting record. LOL

The point is, VV has become a right-wing echo chamber where wishful thinking on politics has replaced reality. The success of Ben, Jeremy and Lisa (since apparently we are all being familiar) was declared impossible and yet the were all easily reelected. 

 

I called Helps winning, it was a given that Isitt and Loveday would be returned. What I call out is the left wing hypocrisy of these folks ie where Helps claims to run a clean campaign but its her campaign team that dont. Classic politics, the candidate must be as pure as snow but the same doesnt apply to her puppet masters. 

 

Isitt et al are more concerned with identity politics and populist politics than actually running the City. The focus of being on council is infrastructure, zoning, policing fire etc. Yet we hear more about name changes, tent cities, reduction in police budgets as the criminals feel threatened etc....if thats right wing to call out this nonsense then sign me up


Edited by rjag, 23 October 2018 - 07:43 AM.

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#96 nerka

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Posted 23 October 2018 - 07:50 AM

Isitt et al are more concerned with identity politics and populist politics than actually running the City. The focus of being on council is infrastructure, zoning, policing fire etc. Yet we hear more about name changes, tent cities, reduction in police budgets as the criminals feel threatened etc....if thats right wing to call out this nonsense then sign me up

Listened to a council meeting lately?  Most of them are all about that "boring" but important stuff like infrastructure and zoning. Only the controversial or weird (hello Camosack) makes the news even though it is a small fraction of what council does.


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#97 rjag

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Posted 23 October 2018 - 07:55 AM

Listened to a council meeting lately?  Most of them are all about that "boring" but important stuff like infrastructure and zoning. Only the controversial or weird (hello Camosack) makes the news even though it is a small fraction of what council does.

 

Yup, because thats the public side they have to do grudgingly. Then they create groups that meet out of the public eye like 'the family' to make decisions where there is no scrutiny. I'll place $20 that we will see at least 2 streets renamed with only token consultation within 24 months...I'll also wager that they will now ignore their own staff recommendations and put the bike lanes back on Cook St


Edited by rjag, 23 October 2018 - 07:56 AM.

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#98 nerka

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Posted 23 October 2018 - 08:09 AM

Yup, because thats the public side they have to do grudgingly.

If you contend that Isitt, Loveday, or Helps do their job (at council meetings) grudgingly I question if you have ever watched a council meeting



#99 Mike K.

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Posted 23 October 2018 - 08:24 AM

Interesting how the first two responses have diametrically opposed views of his voting record. LOL

The point is, VV has become a right-wing echo chamber where wishful thinking on politics has replaced reality. The success of Ben, Jeremy and Lisa (since apparently we are all being familiar) was declared impossible and yet the were all easily reelected. 

 

Pragmatic thinking and opinions, and non-identity politics are surely not the right wing's domain.

 

This is a centrist forum. The fact that Hammond et. al. were labelled angry right wingers says a great deal about the perception of centrists in this community when they people they labelled are unabashedly left-of-centre but not left enough to avoid being labelled angry right wingers.

 

If VV was right wing, as you say it is, you wouldn't be participating here. And nobody said Isitt's re-election was impossible, quite the contrary.


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#100 rjag

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Posted 23 October 2018 - 08:51 AM

If you contend that Isitt, Loveday, or Helps do their job (at council meetings) grudgingly I question if you have ever watched a council meeting


I have seen them in action, how about you comment on the other part of my statement?

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