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2018 municipal election predictions thread


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#41 Nparker

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Posted 19 October 2018 - 10:53 AM

I have to say, the set of council candidates in both Victoria and Saanich seem weaker to me this time than in the past four or five elections

I think Andrew Reeve and Stephen Andrew are quite strong candidates in the CoV.


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#42 nerka

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Posted 19 October 2018 - 10:59 AM

I have to say, the set of council candidates in both Victoria and Saanich seem weaker to me this time than in the past four or five elections

It's a lot of work only to lose to incumbents......

 

I'd agree that the pool seems shallower in Victoria than 2014. Still I see some pretty good quality challengers.  Political leanings aside I'd say that Gardiner, Lore, Reeve, Andrew, Dubow, Leitenberg, and Johal all have solid resumes that I'd want to see in contenders.



#43 Bernard

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Posted 19 October 2018 - 11:01 AM

It's a lot of work only to lose to incumbents......

 

I'd agree that the pool seems shallower in Victoria than 2014. Still I see some pretty good quality challengers.  Political leanings aside I'd say that Gardiner, Lore, Reeve, Andrew, Dubow, Leitenberg, and Johal all have solid resumes that I'd want to see in contenders.

If the City of Victoria used wards incumbents would have a harder time.   The public would only be looking at 2-6 candidates running in their ward meaning the all candidate meetings would be useful.  And finally, it is actually possible for candidates to meet most of the electorate.   


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#44 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 20 October 2018 - 03:54 AM

hammond is going to win

 

and now i'm not sure how the next 3 fall into place.

 

helps could be 2nd 3rd or 4th.



#45 Belleprincess

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Posted 20 October 2018 - 04:54 AM

hammond is going to win

and now i'm not sure how the next 3 fall into place.

helps could be 2nd 3rd or 4th.


You sound pretty confident- I hope you’re right

#46 57WestHills

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Posted 20 October 2018 - 08:01 AM

I don't have a clue who is going to win, oh, except Young in Langford. But no doubt it'll be close.

A curious social media observation I'm looking forward to making though; VV is openly hostile to Helps. Reddit is neutral to positive. There's a lot of criticisms of Helps on Reddit, but they're softer and the "I'm still going to vote for her" posts get a ton of upvotes. Anecdotally it seems like Helps is maybe edging out Hammond on Reddit, or is tied. But close. Here on VV it's Hammond by a landslide.

VV's poll, but not posts, for the provincial election were pretty much on point for the actual outcome. This time the posts and the poll for VV are essentially identical.

Will be interesting to see which site gave a better representation of the election outcome.

Edited by 57WestHills, 20 October 2018 - 08:02 AM.


#47 Mike K.

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Posted 20 October 2018 - 08:08 AM

Good observations.

VV’s demographic tends to represent older, non-tech industry individuals from across the region. Reddit is Reddit and its users are heavily skewed towards the 20-40-year-old demographic with many involved in the tech industry. That block tends to vote left and they tend to live in the urban core.

But this forum is not universally anti-Helps. She was amazing for development over the last four years and her push on that front aligns with the sentiment of many on this forum.

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#48 RFS

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Posted 20 October 2018 - 08:16 AM

I’d say that reddit is more negative to neutral on helps than neutral to positive. There is often a lot of anti helps stuff on there

#49 Nparker

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Posted 20 October 2018 - 08:26 AM

...But this forum is not universally anti-Helps. She was amazing for development over the last four years and her push on that front aligns with the sentiment of many on this forum.

Ugh. I don't think she was any more "amazing for development" than several of her predecessors. Again, she is one vote at the council table when it comes to approving new developments. Balance this against many of her terrible social policies and her general lack of trustworthiness and she has definitely been a net loss to the CoV over the past 4 years. I'd gladly take a slowing down of development if it means Lisa Helps is no longer mayor.


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#50 Mike K.

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Posted 20 October 2018 - 08:30 AM

She could have easily been swayed by NIMBY’s in several instances but pushed forward with her pro vote.
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#51 Nparker

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Posted 20 October 2018 - 08:32 AM

She could have easily been swayed by NIMBY’s in several instances but pushed forward with her pro vote.

And how many times did her vote break a tie?



#52 Mike K.

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Posted 20 October 2018 - 08:34 AM

Oh I dunno.

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#53 57WestHills

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Posted 20 October 2018 - 08:40 AM

I’d say that reddit is more negative to neutral on helps than neutral to positive. There is often a lot of anti helps stuff on there

I think there's more negative to neutral posts for sure, however, on the "upvote" scale it strikes me that Helps is doing better, so it's really hard to make a strong observation for me.

The most upvoted post I saw this week on the Victoria sub was a response to a Hammond supporter which said something I really resonated with, at least in part, (I'm paraphrasing here) "I don't really think Helps did a good job. I don't think she did as bad as Facebook says. I cannot find a platform for Hammond and all the ads just say he isn't Helps. So I'm voting Helps". Thats one specific observation but seems to be representative of the general trend.

Edited by 57WestHills, 20 October 2018 - 08:41 AM.


#54 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 20 October 2018 - 08:55 AM

"I don't really think Helps did a good job. I don't think she did as bad as Facebook says. I cannot find a platform for Hammond and all the ads just say he isn't Helps. 

 

they must not be able to use google then.  hammond's website has lots of positions so does newcouncil.  as far as ads i've not seen one for hammond that mentions helps.


Edited by Victoria Watcher, 20 October 2018 - 08:56 AM.

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#55 Nparker

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Posted 20 October 2018 - 08:56 AM

 

"I don't really think Helps did a good job...I cannot find a platform for Hammond and all the ads just say he isn't Helps. So I'm voting Helps".

The unbelievable ignorance and laziness of the Victoria voter. As I have stated before, it has been very easy to find information on Hammond and NewCouncil for anyone who has even 5 seconds to do a Google search. And for heaven's sake, why do people feel they should re-elect someone whom they admit hasn't done a good job? That's being willfully stupid. Even a moderately intelligent person should be willing to give the other person a chance.


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#56 Casual Kev

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Posted 20 October 2018 - 09:00 AM

It's pretty interesting how strong incumbency is at the municipal level no matter how much the politicians screws up, but at the provincial and federal levels people are a lot more willing to vote out people or parties they dislike. I'm not sure of the psychology behind that.



#57 Nparker

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Posted 20 October 2018 - 09:03 AM

I think it can generally be attributed to the fact that many people are barely engaged in civic electoral matters, even though the decisions made at the local level are often the ones that affect people the most directly.


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#58 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 20 October 2018 - 09:12 AM

and even general saanich residents likely know much more about trudeau horgan and helps than they do about atwell.



#59 57WestHills

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Posted 20 October 2018 - 09:37 AM

they must not be able to use google then. hammond's website has lots of positions so does newcouncil. as far as ads i've not seen one for hammond that mentions helps.


You must not be able to use Google haha.

There's several that mention Helps explicitly, and several that are a bit broader. Go to the New Council FB page they're still up. And I got an "I'm not Helps" Hammond ad hardcopy at my place sometime in the last three days. I don't check my mail often lol.

I don't think New Council, and particularly Hammond, had an accessible platform of note. There was a lot of really generalized stuff... I think he would be a fine Mayor.

#60 Nparker

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Posted 20 October 2018 - 10:04 AM

...Go to the New Council FB page they're still up...

I guess unlike team Helps, NewCouncil doesn't believe in censoring comments on their FB page.



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