11779 replies to this topic

[shoeflack]

it's probably not that complicated to see if people will use a free service or not. 

 

certainly it's more complicated and expensive to try to determine ridership changes on say one bus route if the price increases 25 cents.

 

One of the big challenges with determining uptake for a free service though is getting firm and true commitments. It's incredibly easy to say yes to something free, because there's no barrier to entry. But in practice, for every 10 people that say they will use a free service, probably only a handful will actually use it.

 

It's like getting people to register for a free event. It's a fruitless effort because you'll probably get 100 people to register, and then 40 of them will not attend because there's no disincentive to not show up. But it's really easy to say yes, because you might go and it's free, so why not register. But then look at a paid event, of the 100 that pay the registration fee, you'll probably get 90-95 showing up because they've made that financial commitment to attend...if they don't show, they lose something.

 

So if you did a study on how many people would use a free service, you'd get incredibly skewed numbers because a ton of people would just say yes for the sake of saying yes, even though they may never intend on using the service.

 

I'm sure most of us have things we get for free that we have every intention of using but just never do, because there's really no disincentive to not use that thing.

[Coreyburger]

Oh gosh, it’s not that complicated.

Yes, it is:

For nine out of ten rail projects, passenger forecasts are overestimated; average overestimation is 106%. For 72% of rail projects, forecasts are overestimated by more than two-thirds. For 50% of road projects, the difference between actual and forecasted traffic is more than ±20%; for 25% of road projects, the difference is larger than ±40%.

 

https://papers.ssrn....ract_id=2278254

 

A nice local-ish example: Canada Line.

 

The Canada Line was anticipated to have 100,000 boardings per day in 2013 and 142,000 boardings per day by 2021, but it has consistently exceeded early targets.^[4] Ridership has grown steadily since opening day, with average ridership of 83,000 per day in September 2009,^[5] 105,000 per day in March 2010,^[6] and over 136,000 passengers per weekday in June 2011.^[7] During the 17 days of the 2010 Winter Olympics, the line carried an average of 228,190 passengers per day.^[8]

https://en.wikipedia...iki/Canada_Line

[Victoria Watcher]

that's for a completely new service with new destinations etc.  

 

the question here was "the youth pass is $45.  will you or will you not use one that costs $0".  

 

but shoeflack has good points there.

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 06 January 2020 - 02:55 PM.

[Mike K.]

That’s called spin.

Nobody believed the Johnson Street Bridge would cost what the City said it would cost, but the City maintained it was “on budget.”

You over inflate usage numbers, under inflate costs. That’s how we got a $63 million bridge for $100+ million and a bike network billed as the best infrastructure project, ever, that is largely empty on a day like today.

[Victoria Watcher]

or $2m sunk into the crystal pool.  for zilch.

[spanky123]

I'm sure most of us have things we get for free that we have every intention of using but just never do, because there's really no disincentive to not use that thing.

 

I am sure that you are right but the % of people who say yes will likely be the most that would ever use the service. At least then you would know your top end of the range.

 

There is a difference though when you are spending your own money vs that of others. I can't think of too many private businesses that would spend $750K on an idea without at first at least making an attempt to validate some assumptions. When it is not your money and the upside is a potential 6 figure job elsewhere then why not.

[Mike K.]

That, too.

The McKenzie Interchange wasn’t supposed to have worked, either, remember?

An AirBnB ban was supposed to lower vacancy rates and make housing more affordable. Garden suites were sold as the same thing.

[Coreyburger]

that's for a completely new service with new destinations etc.  

 

the question here was "the youth pass is $45.  will you or will you not use one that costs $0". 

Completely new projects that had significant budgets to model estimated ridership - likely hundreds of thousands in the Canada Line case. If they get it wrong, how are smaller projects supposed to get it right?

[Victoria Watcher]

well i hate lisa helps' "pilot projects" as much as the next person but why did we implement this as a permanent program not knowing the participation level?

[lanforod]

well i hate lisa helps' "pilot projects" as much as the next person but why did we implement this as a permanent program not knowing the participation level?

 

Just because it doesn't have the word 'pilot' in it doesn't mean it can't be cancelled.

[Ismo07]

well i hate lisa helps' "pilot projects" as much as the next person but why did we implement this as a permanent program not knowing the participation level?

 

I'm not sure at this point there is a permanency to this.  Though it gets tough to remove once the schools are issuing the passes.  Once that happens we will have some great stats from if Transit can track those specific uses.

 

Remember the intent wasn't for all these students to use the passes to get to school, although that's fine especially for students going to schools further away, but that when they want to get somewhere they would have a little more freedom rather than parents driving them to and fro.

 

Benefits here are not going to be noticed month to month.

[Victoria Watcher]

the school district #61 already determined (by distance) no kid in victoria needs a bus to get to their local school.  that's why they do not bus to any cov schools.

 

so yes the passes are for something else.

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 06 January 2020 - 04:32 PM.

[Ismo07]

the school district #61 already determined (by distance) no kid in victoria needs a bus to get to their local school.  that's why they do not bus to any cov schools.

 

so yes the passes are for something else.

 

Well these days many kids transfer out of their catchment as schools specialize in learning and athletic academies..  I would think they transfer for other reasons as well.

[Victoria Watcher]

Well these days many kids transfer out of their catchment as schools specialize in learning and athletic academies..  I would think they transfer for other reasons as well.

 

only in the higher grades though right?  not many grade 7 students are trasfering to an academic or sports speciality school in sd61 or beyond.

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 06 January 2020 - 04:37 PM.

[shoeflack]

A lot of the reason for elementary school transfers has to do with teachers. Parents don't want a certain teacher, so they transfer their kid. It happens a lot.

 

It will also happen a lot more next year when the new catchment areas come into play and parents try to keep their kids at the same schools.

[Nparker]

Well these days many kids transfer out of their catchment as schools specialize in learning and athletic academies...

A lot of the reason for elementary school transfers has to do with teachers. Parents don't want a certain teacher, so they transfer their kid. It happens a lot...

I am not sure why taxpayers should be on the hook for providing "free" transportation to students outside of regular catchment areas. If parents choose to place their children in schools that they would not normally attend, then the costs associated with that should be borne by them.

[rmpeers]

I am sure that you are right but the % of people who say yes will likely be the most that would ever use the service. At least then you would know your top end of the range.

There is a difference though when you are spending your own money vs that of others. I can't think of too many private businesses that would spend $750K on an idea without at first at least making an attempt to validate some assumptions. When it is not your money and the upside is a potential 6 figure job elsewhere then why not.

Wasn't this just a cool-sounding election promise for the mayor and we'll worry about the logistics later?

Sexual harrassment cover-up? Hey look over here - a bright shiny object... free bus passes, yay!!

Edited by rmpeers, 06 January 2020 - 07:01 PM.

[Bernard]

the school district #61 already determined (by distance) no kid in victoria needs a bus to get to their local school.  that's why they do not bus to any cov schools.

 

so yes the passes are for something else.

That makes no sense,   There are kids that are located 8 km from their catchment elementary school.   For the elementary school near my house the new catchment boundaries will put some of the K-5 kids over 5 km away.  SD #61 should be providing buses for these kids

[Victoria Watcher]

That makes no sense,   There are kids that are located 8 km from their catchment elementary school.   For the elementary school near my house the new catchment boundaries will put some of the K-5 kids over 5 km away.  SD #61 should be providing buses for these kids

 

8km?  i don't think so.  johnson street bridge to oak bay marina is only 5.4km.  cook street at the ocean is only 5km from the north victoria border at north dairy.

 

if it's for a temporary school (while one is upgraded seismically etc.) they do bus from the old one to the new one daily.

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 07 January 2020 - 10:40 AM.

[Mike K.]

That is physically impossible unless the parents of the student purposefully placed their child in a school that far away.

 

If you live within the SD61 border, the furthest you would travel to an elementary school is only a couple of kilometers. Here's their school map with E identifying an elementary school: