373 replies to this topic

[Ryan Cook]

Once Harris Green Village and 1050 Yates (Chard Rental) are completed, the neighbourhood will be buzzing with activity. 2000 added rental units. Also, on the other corner at Cook / Yates, the Volvo dealership was purchased by Jawl a couple years ago. Expect that site to be redeveloped in the coming years too.

[Barrister]

Other than the banks, has anyone given some thought to the possibility that we might be overbuilding. 

[Ryan Cook]

@barrister. It's a fair point but even with recent cuts to immigration, our population is going to continue to grow steadily from the mainland, across Canada and internationally. As of today, we have the lowest unemployment rate in the Country.

 

Specifically regarding Harris Green Village / 1050 Yates (Chard), Victoria and especially the Downtown Core is in desperate need of revitalization and an injection of people. These 2 projects alone will create thousands of additional foot traffic in the immediate area that will benefit local businesses including the many businesses that will occupy the commercial components of both projects. In my view, these 2 projects represent building for the future instead of trying to play catch up down the road. 

[Barrister]

Ryan Cook, absolutely agree that we have the lowest unemployment numbers but that is largely due to the amount of government jobs in town. While there has been massive growth in government jobs in the past decade going forward not so much.

 

One of the concerns in terms of people moving to Victoria is that we are hitting the tipping point for baby boomers where there are less people turning 65 this year than last year. 

 

A large portion of the real estate market in Victoria, along with a good part of the economy, is supported by people retiring. A concern is the number of people retiring is going to be less than the number either dying or going into nursing or assisted living homes (ie getting out of the traditional condo or SFH market), There will indeed be more seniors overall  but ten years from now there will be less seniors between 65 and 70 while there will be a lot more seniors in either supportive housing or nursing homes (ie, out of the traditional housing market)

 

This is causing some bankers who are looking at a five year window some concern. 

[Mike K.]

To your last point, I have never heard of a banker, in Victoria, having a concern over this. Can you provide us with a bank where one of these bankers works, so I can call them and talk to them? It’s important that I have more details.

You can DM me if you like, or post a name, then I’ll delete it once I see it.

[Barrister]

Two of the guys I was talking with are both in Toronto neither of which I am not  comfortable naming. Part of the old boy network. Pretty sure that the guys for the various banks who analysis demographic impacts in terms of demand are not in Victoria but ask around. 

 

I am pretty sure that you are aware that cost/demand curves in both Toronto and Vancouver are under some scrutiny. Immigration is I suspect the major driver but take a close look at any demographic pyramid for Canada which will give a fast glimpse into the aging baby boomers. Five years from now there is going to be less people turning 65 than there are this year. Not my area of expertise but I am guessing that this is a much smaller demand impact than the stabilization of the population is going to have, or even the reduction in the number of foreign students initially. 

 

Lots of strong demand at the moment but five years out might be a bit different. 

[Barrister]

Mike, I suspect you would have the answer to this, for developers of larger projects 

(15 stories and up), is the financing approved here in Victoria or does most of it originate or requires approval in Vancouver or Toronto? 

[Mike K.]

We’ll have to look at data we can reference, or this may only be opinion of a couple of people. I’ve already said in another thread there appears to be no substance to this, unless we can reference data.

[Barrister]

Which data are you talking about? The demographic data for the pyramid is easily available from status Canada, just google it. Same with ages of Canadians entering retirement homes or assisted living. 

 

But like I said it is less of a factor than immigration numbers at this point. 

[Mike K.]

You need to quantify this:

One of the concerns in terms of people moving to Victoria is that we are hitting the tipping point for baby boomers where there are less people turning 65 this year than last year.

What data quantifies this concern?

[Ryan Cook]

From Statscan 2024: People aged 65 and older increased by 3.4% (+262,394 people), mainly because of the aging of the large cohorts of baby boomers. According to the latest population projections (M1 medium-growth scenario), Canadians aged 65 and older are the group expected to increase at the fastest pace almost every year until the projections end in 2073.

[Barrister]

Ryan Cook: I suspect that you are misreading what that statistic actually means.in terms of housing. What it does not mean is that more people are turning 65 this year than the previous year. What it does mean is the total over 65 is growing. It also means that seniors will be a larger percentage of the population in years to come but that reflects a very low birth rate in the country. But it is not that more people are entering the retired house market rather it is that increasingly more people are entering the retirement home and nursing market.

 

I tried posting a population pyramid but the program wont let me. But if you want an easy comparison there are less people today between the age of 50 t0 54 than there are between the age of 60 to 64. A lot less,  and that is before you take into account how many of those 54 year olds will die before reaching 64. For housing markets, the other stat that is important here is that we will be seeing an increasing number of people over 80, but a large percentage of those will be in retirement homes or nursing homes and out of the standard real estate markets.

 

The baby boom curve was not evenly distributed, the first half being larger than the second half. Happy to discuss this further but look at the actual stats can numbers first.

[Barrister]

Google Stats Canada to confirm

 

In 2024 there were 2,710,000 people aged 60 to 64

In 2024 there were 2,446,000 people aged 50 to 54. 

 

Over the next ten years even without taking death into account there will be less people turning 65 over the next ten years. Then figure out that the difference is even greater consider the number of fifty year olds that dont make it to sixty five.

[lanforod]

So what? What’s your actual concern?