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COVID-19 / Coronavirus updates in Victoria, BC


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#41 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 27 January 2020 - 04:49 AM

imagine we have experts chiming in instead of people in online comment sections.

 

 

China's coronavirus quarantine like using an 'atomic bomb' to deal with outbreak, expert says

 

Experts say Wuhan quarantine may do more harm than good, advise better screening

 

 

https://www.cbc.ca/n...china-1.5441010


Edited by Victoria Watcher, 27 January 2020 - 04:49 AM.


#42 tanker

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Posted 27 January 2020 - 05:30 AM

so it’s much less lethal than the flu. cool.

by next month over 5 million Americans alone will have had the flu in 2020.

They figure this thing kill about 3% of those who get it so about 30 times more lethal than the flu. 



#43 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 27 January 2020 - 05:33 AM

They figure this thing kill about 3% of those who get it so about 30 times more lethal than the flu. 

 

not in the west it won't be.  

 

 

 

In contrast to prophets of doom, who get invited to Davos, asked to address the UN and are able to build entire careers around their scaremongering, there are few rewards for those who play down fears – even if they turn out to be correct. If there were, then perhaps I wouldn’t have to draw attention to this piece I wrote in the Spectator in September 2005 arguing that the H5N1 strain of bird flu had been hugely over-hyped and was unlikely to kill many of us.

 

At the time, the World Health Organisation (WHO) was predicting there could be up to 50 million deaths worldwide, and former government adviser on infectious diseases Professor Hugh Pennington was claiming that it could be worse than the Spanish flu of 1918. In the event, H5N1 went on to kill a global total of, er, 482 people. One doesn’t want to make light of those deaths, but as I pointed out in 2005, a million people a year were then dying of malaria and two million of tuberculosis – yet those diseases seemed to have disappeared from public consciousness in the West and certainly weren’t causing panic in Britain.

 

Yet nasty bugs derived from Chinese livestock markets never fail to whip up mass hysteria. As with H5N1, as with coronavirus. Perhaps wisely, given its past history of crying wolf over bird flu, the WHO has so far stopped short of declaring the latter a global emergency. But China is certainly in panic. 

 

https://blogs.specta...ut-coronavirus/


Edited by Victoria Watcher, 27 January 2020 - 05:39 AM.


#44 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 27 January 2020 - 06:43 AM

Public health officials previously said the woman's husband, a man in his 50s, had been showing mild symptoms on their flight from Guangzhou, China, to Toronto. They've since been reaching out to those aboard the China Southern Airlines flight who sat within two metres of the man.

He is now at Sunnybrook Hospital, where he remains in stable condition. The woman is at home and not in hospital.

"As we understand it, her case isn't as severe as her husband's and isn't in need of hospital care," a provincial health official told CBC News. 

Dr. Michael Gardam, an infectious disease specialist and chief of staff at Humber River Hospital in Toronto, said the second presumptive case doesn't make him worry. Why? Because the disease was spread between two people who had close contact, and there remains no evidence that the disease is spreading beyond that in Ontario.

 

https://www.cbc.ca/n...-case-1.5441401



#45 RFS

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Posted 27 January 2020 - 09:08 AM

Death toll now 80.  From just 2 deaths about a week ago.  Confirmed cases in China close to 3000.  Evidence shows the disease has an incubation period of 2 weeks before symptoms, true number of infected people could be 100,000+



#46 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 27 January 2020 - 09:20 AM

Death toll now 80.  From just 2 deaths about a week ago.  

 

1769 people died yesterday from the flu.  up from 1768 the day before.  up from 1745 for day before and down from 1855 thursday.



#47 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 27 January 2020 - 09:23 AM

 

 

Evidence shows the disease has an incubation period of 2 weeks before symptoms, true number of infected people could be 100,000+

 

that's not correct.  they are unsure of the incubation period.  it could be 1 to 14 days.  unlike the flu.  1 to 4 days.  but of course the media like to flout "14 days!" because that's the scariest.


Edited by Victoria Watcher, 27 January 2020 - 09:25 AM.


#48 Ismo07

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Posted 27 January 2020 - 09:26 AM

1769 people died yesterday from the flu.  up from 1768 the day before.  up from 1745 for day before and down from 1855 thursday.

 

I don't know the real numbers but if 80 out of 3,000 died that's quite a bit.  How many people have the flu?



#49 RFS

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Posted 27 January 2020 - 09:28 AM

that's not correct.  they are unsure of the incubation period.  it could be 1 to 14 days.  unlike the flu.  1 to 4 days.  but of course the media like to flout "14 days!" because that's the scariest.

 

fair enough I should have said the evidence suggests the incubation period CAN be as high as 14 days.



#50 RFS

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Posted 27 January 2020 - 09:31 AM

1769 people died yesterday from the flu.  up from 1768 the day before.  up from 1745 for day before and down from 1855 thursday.

 

And? Lots of people die from lots of diseases, doesn't mean this new virus isn't a problem



#51 Bernard

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Posted 27 January 2020 - 09:38 AM

Keep in mind the coverage of the coronavirus from China is directed by the Communist party for their best interests.   Without any sort of freedom of the media it is very hard for anyone to judge what is happening in China


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#52 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 27 January 2020 - 09:42 AM

How many people have the flu?

 

between 10 and 25% of the world population gets the flu each year.



#53 spanky123

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Posted 27 January 2020 - 09:42 AM

As VV aptly points out, every decade or so we get a new pandemic which is going to destroy 1/2 of the world's population. The media loves it as they make hundreds of millions in ad revenue from panicked folks who watch CNN 24x7. The medical establishment loves it as they make hundreds of millions from money flowing into research from panicked politicians who don't want to be portrayed as uncaring, and NGOs love it as their coffers get topped up as well.

 

Everything peters out after a few months and we are back to worrying about what Trump said or whether Megan and Harry are planning to buy a house in North Saanich or Toronto.


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#54 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 27 January 2020 - 09:43 AM

And? Lots of people die from lots of diseases, doesn't mean this new virus isn't a problem

 

my point is that it has not identified itself as a particularly troubling virus yet.



#55 Greg

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Posted 27 January 2020 - 09:54 AM

I think there is room for some balance here. Coronovirus is very unlikely to kill millions of people. But if the death toll turns out to be (relatively) minor, that may be in part because health experts and government authorities recognized early the potential for it to be a devastating epidemic and reacted quickly. 

 

People love to cite Y2K as an example of overreaction. Y2K turned out not to be a big deal specifically because large numbers of IT experts spent a couple of years working diligently to make sure that didn't happen.

 

It is possible to believe *both* that there is no need to panic, and that it is prudent to treat this as a serious risk that should be diligently addressed.


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#56 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 27 January 2020 - 09:58 AM

It is possible to believe *both* that there is no need to panic, and that it is prudent to treat this as a serious risk that should be diligently addressed.

 

yes.  but there is little use us suggesting closing off the planet to flights etc.  let's operate based on what the experts say.



#57 spanky123

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Posted 27 January 2020 - 10:21 AM

I think there is room for some balance here. Coronovirus is very unlikely to kill millions of people. But if the death toll turns out to be (relatively) minor, that may be in part because health experts and government authorities recognized early the potential for it to be a devastating epidemic and reacted quickly. 

 

People love to cite Y2K as an example of overreaction. Y2K turned out not to be a big deal specifically because large numbers of IT experts spent a couple of years working diligently to make sure that didn't happen.

 

It is possible to believe *both* that there is no need to panic, and that it is prudent to treat this as a serious risk that should be diligently addressed.

 

Y2K was a dud because it was never a big issue. The "large number of IT experts" largely spent their time running up hours and milking the cow as long as they could.


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#58 RFS

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Posted 27 January 2020 - 07:11 PM

106 deaths now

#59 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 27 January 2020 - 07:18 PM

106 deaths now

 

The coronavirus death toll in China has risen to 106, after China said it had more than 4,500 confirmed cases of the deadly disease. 



#60 LJ

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Posted 27 January 2020 - 07:34 PM

Y2K was a dud because it was never a big issue. The "large number of IT experts" largely spent their time running up hours and milking the cow as long as they could.

Exactly, hundreds of millions was spent for nothing. I turned the clock ahead on my home computer and it ticked over to 2000 without a hitch. You think the IT types were going to pass up this cash cow? Now it's the climate emergency.

 

People make a ton of money shorting the airline, hotel and restaurants stocks as soon as the virus is announced and snap up health and cleaning supply stocks.


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