212 replies to this topic

[sebberry]

I don't know, have you been to Kelowna? A few weeks drinking out of the toilet cant be that bad.

Been through it once.

And with my luck, there won't be a toilet left to drink from and I'll be crushed under my wobbly building with the floodwaters rising around me.

[pherthyl]

He has had a hard time publishing work because there is nobody that can peer-review their work (nobody else is working in the field). So they are publishing a book next year.

All sorts of red flags in that story... Tons of people are extremely interested in any accurate or even semi-accurate method of predicting earthquakes.

If he could actually show that his method works, with historical data before earthquakes and a proper control, then other scientists would be all over it. Not saying he's full of it, but maybe the evidence he has isn't as strong as he thinks it is.

[cluseau]

And there I confess that even though I found the subject fascinating and wanted to know more, they were here on vacation, not work, and had other family vying for their time.

But an abstract from a paper on an analysis of the Fukushima quake is here:
http://www.springerl...76742556751m98/

And a summary of their science is here:
http://earthsky.org/...-predictability

[Ken Johnson]

Below are my notes from a June 12th talk at UVic regarding what resulted in Christchurch, NZ. More than a year later they are still cleaning up with the central downtown cores closed off. They have to re-build the city and are talking of height restrictions - nothing over four floors. Christchurch has/had a population size and building history similar to Victoria's.


185 Died
11,000 injured
60,000 left the city
2000 homeless
1/3 of the buildings will be demolished
160,000 homes damaged
½ of the city had no water or sewers
80% had no power
Most of URM were severely damaged or collapsed
10,000 people have permanently left the City
6800 residential buildings were red tagged – damaged beyond repair or remediation
Now – 1000 people working continuously on demolitions
10,000 aftershocks – physical and emotional/mental health problems. Building insurance problems – insures don’t’ want to assess or start reconstruction until all aftershocks have stopped. People feel anger, frustration, fatigue

[sebberry]

Boy, it's a good thing our old brick buildings are being rehabilitated and brought up to code then

Those statistics are depressing. And leave it to the insurance companies to wait until all the aftershocks have stopped before paying anything out. That's something to think about here especially with the cost of our homes.

[Nparker]

... They have to re-build the city and are talking of height restrictions - nothing over four floors...

Because it was proven that no 4-floor or shorter buildings suffered any damage in the Christchurch quake? This is just the sort of thing Pam and her ilk will latch onto to further their anti-height agenda throughout downtown Victoria. A properly designed highrise is safer than a badly built lowrise in an earthquake. Why make an arbitrary height restriction? Why not say no buildings over 1-storey and built to withstand a 500 megaton atomic blast? It makes about as much sense.

[rjag]

There was a documentary about the Chilean earthquake a few years back and they looked at the buildings that were damaged the most. Turned out that newer buildings between 10-20 storeys were most affected.

http://www.ctvnews.c...-study-1.600561

If you get a chance to see the documentary I would highly recommend it. The buildings in Chile are similar in construction type and building code to what we have here (especially Vancouver) Thinner walls and more underground parking are identified as causing structural failure. Not to forget more exterior glass and less exterior structural support.

[gumgum]

I saw that documentary too. The other risk mentioned with such building was that it seemed that irregularly shaped buildings (not square or rectangle) were also more vulnerable. The glassy iconic Vancouver glass tower would be on this list.

It must be pointed out however that the most damaged highrises in Chile were those that were built poorly. Their foundations were not reinforced properly and the concrete used was not the right mix.

[Nparker]

...It must be pointed out however that the most damaged highrises in Chile were those that were built poorly. Their foundations were not reinforced properly and the concrete used was not the right mix.

That's sort of my point. Poorly constructed buildings of ANY size will be most vulnerable in a quake, including 4-storey ones.

[LJ]

Probably a good thing Quebec isn't located near the Cascadia fault line.

[Ken Johnson]

Because it was proven that no 4-floor or shorter buildings suffered any damage in the Christchurch quake? This is just the sort of thing Pam and her ilk will latch onto to further their anti-height agenda throughout downtown Victoria. A properly designed highrise is safer than a badly built lowrise in an earthquake. Why make an arbitrary height restriction? Why not say no buildings over 1-storey and built to withstand a 500 megaton atomic blast? It makes about as much sense.

Sorry about your confusion. I suggest you check the attached link to a Dropbox article from the old Seattle PI.

http://dl.dropbox.co... PI Graphic.pdf

The greatest loss of life in Christchurch was in the CTV building, a relatively modern building, built to code, that suffered a complete collapse.

As to an anti-height agenda, and not that she needs my help, I suggest you check Ms Madoff's voting record. For example, she was a supporter for the ERA building - see Council minutes of June 23, 2011.

[sebberry]

Sorry about your confusion. I suggest you check the attached link to a Dropbox article from the old Seattle PI.

http://dl.dropbox.co... PI Graphic.pdf

Interesting - almost looks like we should be hoping for a subduction quake instead of a more conventional M6-7 quake. Well, unless you live in a newer skyscraper. There goes Promontory.

[Holden West]

Fortin on CBC 90.5 discussing delay in release of seismic report.

[Holden West]

Originally Posted by VicHockeyFan
How many people in Christchurch were "rescued" ie. would have died within minutes or hours if not for the emergency services?

So I mean how many people were so mortally injured they would have died? Did any die awaiting delivery to the hospital, that would not have died with sooner medical care?

Apparently a reasonable amount according to an article in the Lancet. More about the study at this link.

At 1251 h on Feb 22, 2011, an earthquake struck Christchurch, New Zealand, causing widespread destruction. The only regional acute hospital was compromised but was able to continue to provide care, supported by other hospitals and primary care facilities in the city. 6659 people were injured and 182 died in the initial 24 h. The massive peak ground accelerations, the time of the day, and the collapse of major buildings contributed to injuries, but the proximity of the hospital to the central business district, which was the most affected, and the provision of good medical care based on careful preparation helped reduce mortality and the burden of injury. Lessons learned from the health response to this earthquake include the need for emergency departments to prepare for: patients arriving by unusual means without prehospital care, manual registration and tracking of patients, patient reluctance to come into hospital buildings, complete loss of electrical power, management of the many willing helpers, alternative communication methods, control of the media, and teamwork with clear leadership. Additionally, atypical providers of acute injury care need to be integrated into response plans.

Furthermore, the study recommends better and more integrated emergency prep.



Meanwhile overall the response was effective but not perfect to the earthquake. What worked well apparently was the response of the police and fire departments. What did go wrong was that there were still two authorities responsible in case of an earthquake and that the tensions between the two put property and people at risk.



From everything I can find looking at the Christchurch earthquake, if they had 13 emergency plans with multiple police and fire departments involved there would have been more people that died because there would have been no way to dispatch the resources to where they were needed in the first couple of hours. Just having a central communications centre seemed to have been crucial in the first 15-20 minutes.

This is what I fear will happen if a big quake strikes here:

Central Saanich puts their emergency response plan into play immediately, sending police and fire out knocking on doors making sure everything's OK, rounding up escaped farm animals and locking them back up, checking irrigation lines etc.

Meanwhile, thousands are injured and trapped in Victoria, and we have difficulty communicating up the peninsula to put rescue workers where they're needed most.

[Bernard]

The very idea that we have 13 separate emergency plans that are not coordinated boogles my mind. Someone has to accept they can let someone else do it and I assume the small municipalities are worried about being ignored so maybe we start with Victoria agreeing Oak Bay should be in charge of the emergency plan for both municipalities in the event of major disaster? Saanich could have View Royal look after them in a major disaster.

As crazy as this sounds, it would be better than what we have now.

[kenjh]

this all reinforces my belief in being prepared enough to not depend on ANYONE else for any necessities for food, shelter , or personal protection ,,in the event of any problem ..when the big one hit's ..I will have coffee on ..in case you need a cup ..

[Baro]

Can anyone recommend a good place to get an emergency kit and any tips on what to have in it? I'm sure places sell them pre-packed. We want to be ready for a disaster because clearly the city isn't.

[Mike K.]

Even if you're protected and prepared to the nines, if your house is on fire and your emergency kit is inside you're at the mercy of emergency personnel. And should you be trapped in your home after an earthquake your food and emergency reserves will be of no use.

Emergency preparedness personnel have so much as confirmed that average citizens will have no emergency assistance for a period of seven days after a major catastrophe. That's at least 7 liters of water per person, per day. There's absolutely no way that even well prepared families will have enough water, food and other necessities to withstand the after effects of a major earthquake in the middle of winter. Well prepared people will be relying on and expecting emergency services several days after an incident.

[rjag]

Can anyone recommend a good place to get an emergency kit and any tips on what to have in it? I'm sure places sell them pre-packed. We want to be ready for a disaster because clearly the city isn't.

Baro, its pretty easy to make your own and will cost about 1/3-1/2 the price of buying one prepackaged. That way you also get to customise it to your needs.

Just google "emergency kit contents" and then have fun at Canadian Tire!!!

The following are some general basics.....

GENERAL SUPPLIES
- Water (1 gallon per person per day)
- First Aid Kit (ample, freshly stocked)
- First Aid Manual (know how to use it)
- Food (canned or individually packaged & precooked)
- Infant Food (canned or precooked)
- Manual can opener
- Blankets or sleeping bags for each family member
- Critical medication and eyeglasses
- Fire Extinguishers (dry chemical, type ABC)
- Flashlight (spare batteries and bulbs)
- Watch or clock (battery or spring wound)
- Dust Masks
- Portable Radio with spare batteries
- Spare Cash
- Duct Tape
- Basic Tool Kit


COOKING SUPPLIES
- Grill (use OUTSIDE ONLY – charcoal or sterno)
- Small Pots & Pans w/utensils
- Plastic bags (various sizes)
- Paper plates, plastic cups and utensils, paper towels


SANITATION SUPPLIES
- Large plastic trash bags (for trash, waste, water protection)
- Ground cloth or tarp
- Toiletries (personal hygiene supplies, toilet paper, feminine supplies, soap, etc.)
- Infant supplies
- Chlorine bleach and powdered chlorinated lime (add to sewage to disinfect and keep away insects)
- Newspapers (wrap waste and garbage)

[sebberry]

Where the heck am I going to store all that?