Jump to content

      













Photo

Victoria Rapid Transit Project - CRD/BC Transit - Light Rail (LRT) has been recommended


  • Please log in to reply
1286 replies to this topic

#1281 Mike K.

Mike K.
  • Administrator
  • 51,418 posts

Posted 18 October 2019 - 12:50 PM

The Pat Bay is pretty good. Get rid of the lights and you’ve got generations of population growth taken care of with the ultra slow growth rate the peninsula has.

Know it all.
Citified.ca is Victoria's most comprehensive research resource for new-build homes and commercial spaces.


#1282 van-island

van-island
  • Member
  • 92 posts

Posted 18 October 2019 - 02:03 PM

As someone that works as a consultant I have some experience in this field.

The federal government has a really bad habit of seeking people to write reports that justify the decision they have already made. I try to avoid working for them.

My experience of the provincial government is that the reports are seriously considered. No situation is a blank slate and no consultant comes without some biases, but with those provisos, the provincial civil servants are very good at a neutral approach to issues.

The odds of study coming back and saying rail is not feasible is a realistic result because the business case for rail from Langford to Victoria remains very weak and the costs remain high.

I have been asking for several years now for a realistic business case for the construction and operation of a rail transit service. I have yet to have seen anything that convinces me that it makes any sense at all.

I would be very surprised if a serious study is done and it comes out with a recommendation that rail is financially feasible. If the study comes back and says it makes no sense, will this end the idea? Will discussion of it end?

 

The problem with the analyses that have been done is that they are based on the current status quo transportation situation. For example, how many transit users are there currently in the corridor?  Then, how many new users might rail attract at a certain price point?  But the underlying assumption is that the land use situation will be more or less static, or some moderate infill is anticipated.

 

Of course, based on this type of approach the numbers never work. This type of analysis is done because the people doing the analysis (a) have zero vision and (b) only factor in a "business as usual" approach to land use. The thing with rail is that it attracts investment, and if done right (and it may take a few decades) it is a "build it and they will come" situation. However what it requires is a fundamental reorganization of how we think about land development.

 

And the catch is this: most people (including many people who work on these studies) cannot conceptualize such a reorganization of the way things work and tend to do their analysis on a "status quo +1" basis. 

 

The studies also never take into account things like the endless hours people spend stuck in traffic every day, or the cost to continually upgrade the highway system over the same time frame with 100's of millions of improvements,



#1283 Victoria Watcher

Victoria Watcher
  • Member
  • 6,891 posts

Posted 18 October 2019 - 02:15 PM

what makes you think municipal politicians in Victoria Esquimalt view royal and colwood will ever embrace high density corridors? is there any hint of that now? today’s blockbuster story is about a guy cutting a space in a rock wall for an sfd driveway. and you want to add 50k people along the rail?
  • DavidL likes this

#1284 Mike K.

Mike K.
  • Administrator
  • 51,418 posts

Posted 18 October 2019 - 02:17 PM

People love their cars so much that they don’t mind the time stuck in traffic. It’s also not hours, it’s minutes.

It takes me 40 minutes flat to drive into downtown Victoria in no traffic, ie at 8PM. On Friday mornings I leave at 7:15AM and arrive in downtown Victoria at 8:05-8:15, so 50 minutes to exactly an hour. On non-government flex days (Tues-Thurs) I don’t schedule meeting arrivals until 10AM by which point the big rush is over, and if I must drive in earlier I’ll budget an additional 10-20 minutes to those 50 minute and 1 hour travel times, so 1 hour to 1:20 but usually closer to one hour flat.

And I don’t mind the drive at all. 9/10 I’ll stop at a shop to pick something up, grab a coffee somewhere along the way, etc. It’s awesome.

Now for that train to be feasible we would need 30 years worth of our pace of housing density to materialize in 5-10, and solely along the line. It’s just not going to happen when our growth rate is as slow as it is and with so many people still pursuing suburban single family dwellings with zero desire to live in an apartment or a condo.

Know it all.
Citified.ca is Victoria's most comprehensive research resource for new-build homes and commercial spaces.


#1285 Victoria Watcher

Victoria Watcher
  • Member
  • 6,891 posts

Posted 18 October 2019 - 02:27 PM

and at some point surely less and less people working in an office.

#1286 Intercontinental

Intercontinental
  • Member
  • 28 posts

Posted 18 October 2019 - 02:44 PM

Corridors: https://www.saanich....idor-plans.html

#1287 Victoria Watcher

Victoria Watcher
  • Member
  • 6,891 posts

Posted 18 October 2019 - 02:59 PM

 

the shelbourne corridor plan gives zero indication of what the expected population increase will be.  but it does say this:

 

Multi-family Housing

 

Support apartment buildings on major and collector roads where designated on Map 5

 

For areas designated for townhouses on Map 5.1:

 

Support 3 storey townhouses along major and collector roads, including stacked townhouses (patio apartments on main floor with townhouses occupying the 2nd and 3rd floors);

 

Support 2 storey townhouses along residential streets; and,

 

Consider 3 storey townhouses (but not stacked townhouses) on residential streets only where their height and massing will not be out of character with or overshadow adjacent properties

 

Encourage family oriented multi-family housing around schools by encouraging three bedroom units with family oriented amenities.

 

 

 

that's hardly a plan for robust density.


Edited by Victoria Watcher, 18 October 2019 - 03:00 PM.


 



0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users