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Victoria's housing market, home prices and values


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#2161 Citified.ca

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Posted 04 January 2018 - 02:24 PM

^Ah, yeah that's a great point. We'll have to remember to break down the figures next time.

 

Downtown Victoria's housing inventory to skyrocket by 1,500-units between 2018 and 2019


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#2162 Mike K.

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Posted 10 January 2018 - 08:30 AM

I had a meeting with a colleague yesterday who is high up in Victoria’s real-estate and development industry. Well connected, informed, etc.

He remarked how developers from across the country and increasingly from across the world are looking to southern Vancouver Island in anticipation of acquiring large tracts of land. There are also plans quietly afoot to redevelop some central tracts of land in the inner core that will be very positive for downtown.

He said the Vancouver and Toronto markets are driving out even big players who are competing with well capitalized international firms who can drop something like $250 million on a land acquisition. So they’re turning their gaze west. The sentiment among national players, he says, is the south Island is worth their attention and there are years of growth still on the table.
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#2163 VicHockeyFan

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Posted 10 January 2018 - 08:37 AM

We have "tracts of land"?

 

If he means raze the entire neighbourhood behind Hillside Mall, I'm all in.


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#2164 spanky123

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Posted 10 January 2018 - 08:38 AM

The offshore money is largely from Chinese investors who are quite happy to park their funds into sub 2%-3% deals in order to diversify out of China. In fact I know of one billion dollar plus deal that was done sub 1.6%. So money is looking for a home in Victoria and will crowd out the local players as they drive prices up and cap rates down even further. You often have to be careful of what you wish when to have to think about what will be built that can justify the prices being paid.



#2165 VicHockeyFan

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Posted 10 January 2018 - 08:40 AM

screenshot-www.google.ca-2018-01-10-08-38-29-108.png

 

OK, but seriously, the entire area between Government and Douglas all the way from Herald to Bay or Hillside needs a re-work by someone with money.

 

 

 


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#2166 Mike K.

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Posted 10 January 2018 - 08:41 AM

It’s not all Chinese money in Victoria. At least not yet.

The players we're starting to see out here are Canadian companies that have been around far longer than the Chinese “boogeyman” that is responsible for every problem ever conceived of by locals.

But in Vancouver and Toronto billions are being poured into real-estate by international players that includes Chinese capital.

There’s a significant project materializing out on the West Shore with Chinese capital. I can’t speak to the specifics yet but it’s definitely interesting to sit with those guys and see things from their point of view.

@VHF, yes, I’m referring to redeveloping large(er) portions of land.

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#2167 jonny

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Posted 10 January 2018 - 08:49 AM

OK, but seriously, the entire area between Government and Douglas all the way from Herald to Bay or Hillside needs a re-work by someone with money.

 

I'm not sure if "large tracts of land" is the right term, but there are definitely many parcels that are ripe for redevelopment. The number of car lots, strip malls, parking lots and little one or two storey structures south of Mayfair and west of Hillside mall that could and probably should be redeveloped is easily 100+ individual parcels. If the area bordered by Bay, Blanshard and Pandora was properly "gentrified", we're talking about housing for 10-15,000 more people, easily. 


Edited by jonny, 10 January 2018 - 08:49 AM.

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#2168 VicHockeyFan

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Posted 10 January 2018 - 08:52 AM

Chinese Boogeyman is playing the Commodore Ballroom in March.


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#2169 Mike K.

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Posted 10 January 2018 - 08:53 AM

You mean the Capital Ballroom?
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#2170 VicHockeyFan

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Posted 10 January 2018 - 08:54 AM

I'm not sure if "large tracts of land" is the right term, but there are definitely many parcels that are ripe for redevelopment. The number of car lots, strip malls, parking lots and little one or two storey structures south of Mayfair and west of Hillside mall that could and probably should be redeveloped is easily 100+ individual parcels. If the area bordered by Bay, Blanshard and Pandora was properly "gentrified", we're talking about housing for 10-15,000 more people, easily. 

 

How many could we fit just on the Island Farms site (I know this is outside your boundary) and the adjacent little mall?

 

Why do we have a dairy in the middle of the city?  Many miles south of all the farms the milk comes from, and south of where most of the finished product goes to?


Edited by VicHockeyFan, 10 January 2018 - 08:56 AM.

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#2171 VicHockeyFan

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Posted 10 January 2018 - 08:55 AM

You mean the Capital Ballroom?

 

No, the Chinese Boogeyman that finances the Chinese Boogeyman band is not here yet, remember, you just said it.  They are at Vancouver's Commodore.


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#2172 Mike K.

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Posted 10 January 2018 - 08:57 AM

With Bosa now running Dockside we’re going to see swift activity there, for sure. And no, neither that or Bayview is what I’m referring to. Speaking of Bayview, what’s happening there? In this market they should already be selling tower #4 and the commercial component should already be underway.
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#2173 spanky123

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Posted 10 January 2018 - 09:54 AM

It’s not all Chinese money in Victoria. At least not yet.

The players we're starting to see out here are Canadian companies that have been around far longer than the Chinese “boogeyman” that is responsible for every problem ever conceived of by locals.

But in Vancouver and Toronto billions are being poured into real-estate by international players that includes Chinese capital.

There’s a significant project materializing out on the West Shore with Chinese capital. I can’t speak to the specifics yet but it’s definitely interesting to sit with those guys and see things from their point of view.

@VHF, yes, I’m referring to redeveloping large(er) portions of land.

 

I was referring to deals outside of Victoria. Those deals are what are driving developers to Victoria though as you mentioned. 



#2174 Mattjvd

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Posted 10 January 2018 - 10:03 AM

With Bosa now running Dockside we’re going to see swift activity there, for sure. And no, neither that or Bayview is what I’m referring to. Speaking of Bayview, what’s happening there? In this market they should already be selling tower #4 and the commercial component should already be underway.


I got an email from their marketing team to confirm I want to be on the update list for tower 4. I'll post anything I hear from them in the thread.
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#2175 AllJetNoPilot

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Posted 10 January 2018 - 11:16 AM

It’s not all Chinese money in Victoria. At least not yet.

The players we're starting to see out here are Canadian companies that have been around far longer than the Chinese “boogeyman” that is responsible for every problem ever conceived of by locals.

But in Vancouver and Toronto billions are being poured into real-estate by international players that includes Chinese capital.

There’s a significant project materializing out on the West Shore with Chinese capital. I can’t speak to the specifics yet but it’s definitely interesting to sit with those guys and see things from their point of view.

@VHF, yes, I’m referring to redeveloping large(er) portions of land.

 

Any chance its the not-yet defined, and even more poorly documented re-development of the Catholic Church, and adjoining ~11 properties next to Langford City Centre, and surrounding the Danbrook one (11 story) development? I went to the public hearing on Monday, and the proponent didn't have slides to explain where the proposed re-zoning (to "Community Town Centre Pedestrian 9") was...

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#2176 Mike K.

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Posted 10 January 2018 - 11:54 AM

No, these would be projects in the downtown area.

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#2177 tjv

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Posted 10 January 2018 - 12:08 PM

Its all possible, but the stress test I think is going to play havoc with peoples ability to purchase.  I've had solid meetings last week and this week with people willing to pay 20% rates for 2nd mortgages on short term, all of them being rejected by the banks



#2178 spanky123

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Posted 10 January 2018 - 12:16 PM

Its all possible, but the stress test I think is going to play havoc with peoples ability to purchase.  I've had solid meetings last week and this week with people willing to pay 20% rates for 2nd mortgages on short term, all of them being rejected by the banks

 

And rightly so. If interest and mortgage rates rise another 75 bps over the next 12 months as expected, how are they going to pay their bills?



#2179 FirstTimeHomeCrier

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Posted 10 January 2018 - 01:14 PM

To me, the stress test kind of shines a spotlight on how absurd housing prices have become. It forces you to take stock of what is really going on. Whatever number you get for your maximum, what it really means (as far as I can tell) is:

 

If you (as an individual or family) put aside 30% of your gross income every year for 25 years, this is the home you will have earned.

 

I think about how long 25 years is (almost my entire life right now) and how huge a chunk of my income that is, and then I look at my condo, which is fine but not great and which apparently floods annually with sewage (clueless neighbours + old pipes), and I think, "this it it?"


Edited by FirstTimeHomeCrier, 10 January 2018 - 01:14 PM.


#2180 Mike K.

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Posted 10 January 2018 - 02:12 PM

Home ownership is going to become a luxury for the upper tiers of society unless we recognize that the environmentalism movement coupled with severe NIMBYism has destroyed access to truly affordable/attainable housing.

 

And I don't mean government-subsidized affordable housing, as its anything but and forces those trying to afford housing in the first place to pay for someone else's housing through ever rising taxes, new housing organizations, housing advocates, etc.

 

It's a shame that in this country, even on this Island, and even in this region, we have tremendous amounts of land on which politicians will not allow us to live on.


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