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Victoria's housing market, home prices and values


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#3701 marks_28

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Posted 20 October 2021 - 02:24 PM

Yup, everyone will have had different experiences. Growing up in Gordon Head, over 99% of our trips were made by car. Now, living in a condo close to town, about 20% of my trips are by car. Is this the case for everyone? Not even close. And the way our cities are built, having a car is a necessity for the majority of people, regardless of where they live, apartment or SFH.

 

Someone may be just as likely to own a car living in a condo vs a SFH (in reality, probably a tiny bit more unlikely, but we'll call it even for now). But if you're on a fixed budget for a house, you might be stuck with a condo closer to the city, or a SFH out in the suburbs. Sure, you might use your car for the same amount of trips, but the kms travelled will definitely be more for the SFH owner. That is where the big impact is.


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#3702 Barrrister

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Posted 21 October 2021 - 07:39 AM

In ten years or less almost all cars will be electric so what is the big deal?



#3703 Sparky

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Posted 21 October 2021 - 09:56 AM

^ No they won’t.
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#3704 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 21 October 2021 - 10:14 AM

^ No they won’t.

 

I think that more than 50% of new cars will be.  

 

Maybe not trucks and SUVs yet.

 

And of course it takes decades to turn over the fleet.



#3705 MarkoJ

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Posted 21 October 2021 - 11:40 AM

In ten years or less almost all cars will be electric so what is the big deal?

 

Electric car are still really bad for the environment, just not as bad as ICEs. 


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#3706 Barrrister

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Posted 21 October 2021 - 02:59 PM

Real estate agents are really bad for the environment as well, 


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#3707 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 21 October 2021 - 03:09 PM

Real estate agents are really bad for the environment as well, 

 

your government would disagree:

 

 

 

Property transfer tax took in $2 billion last fiscal year and is forecast to decline slightly to $1.97 billion in the current year, as the finance ministry forecasts a “moderation in market activity in 2022.”

 

 

https://www.saanichn...sfer-tax-gains/



#3708 MarkoJ

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Posted 22 October 2021 - 08:29 AM

Real estate agents are really bad for the environment as well, 

 

I agree. 


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#3709 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 27 October 2021 - 07:20 AM

This is an interesting report about first-time buyers being gifted down-payments from parents etc.

 

 

 

https://economics.ci...a5d568b8&flag=E

 

it would appear as much as 30% of buyers get this help and it's over $100,000 in many cases.



#3710 Barrrister

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Posted 27 October 2021 - 07:24 AM

Marko, to his credit, has a sense of humor and some perspective on life, 


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#3711 sebberry

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Posted 27 October 2021 - 08:02 AM

Marko, to his credit, has a sense of humor and some perspective on life, 

 

That's how he copes with clients like me :D


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#3712 Mike K.

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Posted 27 October 2021 - 08:14 AM

This is an interesting report about first-time buyers being gifted down-payments from parents etc.



https://economics.ci...a5d568b8&flag=E

it would appear as much as 30% of buyers get this help and it's over $100,000 in many cases.

Hasn’t this always (in our lifetimes) been the way it works? Parents help kids buy their first home? This is just another reason why homeownership is so important, it builds equity that you can withdraw to help your kids buy a home.

The gifting is also quasi true. Lots of it is gifting for tax purposes mortgage qualification purposes only, but it’s expected to be paid back. If the bank saw mom and dad loaning money, that would count against the applicant’s mortgage qualification (like car loans do; that alone is a large barrier to entry for first time buyers).

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#3713 Victoria Watcher

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Posted 27 October 2021 - 08:20 AM

well it's gone from 20% of people to 30% of people getting the gift in the last 6 years.

 

and yes it's usually paid back in some way.  even though it's not officially a loan.  



#3714 spanky123

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Posted 27 October 2021 - 08:57 AM

The gifting is also quasi true. Lots of it is gifting for tax purposes mortgage qualification purposes only, but it’s expected to be paid back. If the bank saw mom and dad loaning money, that would count against the applicant’s mortgage qualification (like car loans do; that alone is a large barrier to entry for first time buyers).

 

I think that a lot of the gifting is for estate purposes. When my sister needed a down payment for a house my parents just gave us both $50K out of our 'inheritance'. They didn't need the money and it was better giving it to us than having the CRA take a portion when they passed!

 

Although homeowners are now wealthy elitists that must be driven out of existence, the reality is that it is a forced savings plan that both the Feds and the rest of society heavily rely on. I dread what is going to happen when the society of renters who saved nothing during their careers in order to live their experiences, all expect to have the Feds pay for their lifestyle when they turn 65.


Edited by spanky123, 27 October 2021 - 08:59 AM.

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#3715 sebberry

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Posted 27 October 2021 - 09:00 AM

and yes it's usually paid back in some way.  even though it's not officially a loan.  

 

Usually paid back when the parents retire and move into their kids basements.  But hey, at least they bake you cookies and help raise the kids.  I wonder how that all works with condos.


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#3716 Mike K.

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Posted 27 October 2021 - 10:16 AM

well it's gone from 20% of people to 30% of people getting the gift in the last 6 years.

 

and yes it's usually paid back in some way.  even though it's not officially a loan.  

 

I'd say it's closer to 80% locally. 30% sounds low for Victoria/Vancouver (does anyone here know someone under the age of 40 who didn't rely on a parent in some way to buy their first home?).

 

I mean, right now a downpayment on an average house is going to run you $240,000 to meet 20%. Sometimes the bank wants 25% or 30% to make the numbers work.


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#3717 Citified.ca

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Posted 01 November 2021 - 12:42 PM

October price records:

New record for SFDs: $1.311 million average

New record for SFSs: $1.202 million median

 

New record for condos: $620,859 a

New record for condos: $545,895 m

 

New record for townhomes: $855,894 a

New record for townhomes: $797,895 m

 

Victoria house, condo and townhome prices shatter records in October; SFDs averaged $1.31M, condos $620k, townhomes $856k

https://victoria.cit...townhomes-856k/


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#3718 Barrrister

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Posted 01 November 2021 - 07:03 PM

Make sure to marry rich.


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#3719 sebberry

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Posted 02 November 2021 - 07:53 AM

So where are we going with mortgage rates and how is that going to impact home prices over the next year? 

I guess I have a bit of a decision - sell now-ish while supply is low to maximize my sell price, or stick around and pay 20k+ in special assessments and watch the value drop over the next year. If I sell now I could rent for a year or so, but I don't know if a mortgage rate hike inspired drop in prices would be enough to offset the higher interest rates and get me a nicer place than I could afford now.  

 

Too much unpredictability. :(


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#3720 Mike K.

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Posted 02 November 2021 - 08:07 AM

Mortgage rates will have to rise a lot to have an impact, I think. Realisticly we can expect an approach to 3% by mid-2022, with current rates at 2.1%-2.3% among A lenders.

But the question is, will the rates rise fast, or will they slowly trickle up?

And then of course you also have variable rates that are much lower. So who knows.
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