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2017 BC General Election + subsequent fallout


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#41 Nparker

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Posted 22 June 2016 - 01:46 PM

...What the data shows is that the Greens take more from the Liberals than they take from the NDP...

I'll believe that when I see it in action in 2017



#42 Bernard

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Posted 22 June 2016 - 01:47 PM

I'll believe that when I see it in action in 2017

So quantifiable data from the last elections is not good enough for you?   



#43 Nparker

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Posted 22 June 2016 - 01:48 PM

So quantifiable data from the last elections is not good enough for you?   

Nope. 2017 is likely to be quite a different ballgame from 2013.


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#44 Bernard

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Posted 22 June 2016 - 01:55 PM

Nope. 2017 is likely to be quite a different ballgame from 2013.

Based on what I am seeing within the BC Greens, the impact on the BC Liberals will be more than in 2013 - I have no way to prove that publicly at the moment

 

As best as I can tell, in the CRD a lot of past BC Liberal voters will be voting Green to try and get rid of NDP MLAs



#45 Nparker

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Posted 22 June 2016 - 02:14 PM

...As best as I can tell, in the CRD a lot of past BC Liberal voters will be voting Green to try and get rid of NDP MLAs

But if as you say that only draws the votes away from the Liberals won't this strategy actually help the NDP?



#46 lanforod

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Posted 22 June 2016 - 02:39 PM

^ that really depends who is the polling leader in each riding. If the goal is to dump NDP MLAs, then encourage everyone who would vote either Liberal or Green to vote for the polling leader that is not NDP.

 

I think the BC Green party has been leaning further left than in the past. That could turn off some BC Liberal voters. I still highly doubt we'll have a single red seat on the south island area. Maybe an additional Green.



#47 Bernard

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Posted 22 June 2016 - 02:40 PM

Under Andrew Weaver the party has not been tending leftwards



#48 Mike K.

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Posted 22 June 2016 - 04:16 PM

I was at lunch today and the topic of Carole James came up. Word on the street is she is not likely to seek re-election and there is nobody in the NDP ranks high profile enough to guarantee a win. Who is rumoured to possibly take a stab at it, according to someone at the table, is Barb Desjardins.


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#49 Bernard

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Posted 22 June 2016 - 04:37 PM

I was at lunch today and the topic of Carole James came up. Word on the street is she is not likely to seek re-election and there is nobody in the NDP ranks high profile enough to guarantee a win. Who is rumoured to possibly take a stab at it, according to someone at the table, is Barb Desjardins.

That rumour has been going around for years, a few weeks back she said to the TC she was leaning towards runing again

 

And which party do you think Barb Desjardins would be running for?   The NDP has no love for her



#50 Mike K.

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Posted 22 June 2016 - 04:41 PM

Liberals.


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#51 Bernard

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Posted 22 June 2016 - 04:56 PM

Liberals.

and you think she would have any chance in Victoria Beacon HIll?



#52 rjag

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Posted 22 June 2016 - 05:08 PM

It all depends on what Carole does. If she stays she's untouchable if she goes then it's open season

#53 Bernard

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Posted 22 June 2016 - 05:29 PM

It all depends on what Carole does. If she stays she's untouchable if she goes then it's open season

It is a very safe NDP seat.  In 2001 the Liberals barely won it - a 35 vote difference.   In 2013 the Liberals came 3rd, one of only two ridings in BC where that has happened to them since 1996.

 

If Barb Desjardins were to run, why not in Esquimalt Metchosin?   The Liberals were much closer to Maurine Karaganis in Esquimalt Royal Roads than in Victoria Beacon HIll.   The changed riding boundaries look to improve things for them.   



#54 Nparker

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Posted 22 June 2016 - 05:42 PM

If Carole James doesn't run again, will Comrade Isitt step up to the plate?



#55 Bernard

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Posted 22 June 2016 - 05:51 PM

If Carole James doesn't run again, will Comrade Isitt step up to the plate?

If I were to guess who would, I think it would Dean Fortin

 

There is one reason I do not expect Carole James to step down.  She can not get her pesion till the end of 2017 when she turns 60 and it is 15% lower if she takes it at that point.   If she does one more term she earns more money and gets a larger pension


Edited by Bernard, 22 June 2016 - 06:14 PM.


#56 johnk

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Posted 22 June 2016 - 06:13 PM

If I were to guess who would, I think it would Dean Fortin
 
There is one reason I do not expect Carole James to step down.  She can not get her pesion till the end of 2017 when she turns 60 and it is 15% lower if she takes it at that point.   If she does one more term she earns more money and gets a larger pension


Follow the money, as they say.

#57 Bernard

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Posted 22 June 2016 - 06:17 PM

(I believe my math is correct, if it is not it is still roughly in the ball park)

 

If she does not run this time her pension would be $28,000 in December 2017

If she is elected for another term but does not run in 2021 but waits till December 2022 her pension would be $58,000

If she is elected in 2021 for another term her pension in 2025 would be $72,100

If the NDP wins in 2017 and she is a cabinet minister for 3 years and waits to Dec 2022 to collect it is $88,000

And finally, the NDP wins in 2021 and she is a cabinet member it goes up to $109,000

 

Running one more term is worth $30,000 a year to her for the rest of her life.   She could not run this time and wait till December 2022 and collect $43,250 but would need to find a new job for five and half years.  Even then her pension is close to $15,000 a year less

 

So if you were her, would you run again or not?


Edited by Bernard, 22 June 2016 - 06:17 PM.

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#58 VicHockeyFan

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Posted 22 June 2016 - 10:24 PM

I'm not sure it matters.

The Liberal run has to end some time, it might as well be 2017.
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#59 Nparker

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Posted 23 June 2016 - 05:24 AM

I agree. I just don't see that happening next year.

#60 nagel

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Posted 23 June 2016 - 06:11 AM

It won't happen next year.

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