11591 replies to this topic

[Victoria Watcher]

China’s EV revolution shows grim future for Japan’s car titans

 

In the world of gasoline cars, Japan’s automakers are king. Toyota has held the title of the world’s No. 1 car company for the past three years, while Honda and Nissan remain global bestsellers.

 

But as the transition to electric vehicles accelerates, the Japanese giants are facing stiffer competition from EV upstarts like Tesla and BYD. Nowhere is the threat more apparent than in China — the world’s largest auto market and where 1 in 4 cars sold last year were electric. EV sales are forecast to climb to 9 million in 2023, reaching market penetration of 35%.

 

Honda and Nissan sales in China have been falling for at least two years, while Toyota’s sales last year declined for the first time in a decade. Although chip shortages, COVID-19 lockdowns and the related supply chain snarls played their part, a growing issue is the lack of attractive electric-car offerings from the trio.

 

China is providing a window into a future where these Japanese titans — which did more to bring cars to the masses than any other automakers — fall from their pedestal, potentially upending the global auto-making landscape for good. Tesla is the world’s top EV-maker by vehicles sold, followed by companies including China’s BYD and Volkswagen, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.  No Japanese carmaker makes the top 20, leaving them on the sidelines of the auto industry’s fastest-growing sector.

 

 

 

https://www.japantim...apan-carmakers/

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 26 March 2023 - 05:54 AM.

[Victoria Watcher]

Ford projects its EV division will lose $3 billion in 2023 after losing $2 billion last year: ‘Startups lose money’

 

https://fortune.com/...vehicles-tesla/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That 120-year-old startup.

[Victoria Watcher]

EV driver survey finds significant drop in concerns about range and battery life after vehicle purchase


“An overwhelming majority (97%) say they will purchase another EV when it comes time to replace their existing one,” says CAA in its release. “Almost nine in ten (89%) say they enjoy driving their EV more, 95% say their EV is more affordable, and 92% say their EV is a quieter ride than their gas vehicle.”

Particularly noteworthy is the drop in several areas of pre-purchase concern. Specifically, worries about range before buying fell 37 percentage points to 30 per cent. Fears about cold-weather performance dropped 25 percentage points to 33 per cent. And worries about battery degradation fell 41 percentage points to 13 per cent.

https://electricauto...-concerns-drop/

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 27 March 2023 - 01:46 AM.

[Mike K.]

“An overwhelming majority (97%) say they will purchase another EV when it comes time to replace their existing one,” says CAA in its release. “Almost nine in ten (89%) say they enjoy driving their EV more, 95% say their EV is more affordable, and 92% say their EV is a quieter ride than their gas vehicle.”

That’s how we know we’re dealing with fans, not sincere responses from average people.

There is no example where an EV is more affordable. Not one. And the “noise” is also not a factor in a modern vehicle, unless you want it to be. What they’re saying here, is because they bought a $90k car instead of a $50k car, is it’s better insulated from tire noise. That’s all you hear from the vehicle in a modern unmodified passenger car without a muffler tuned to make noise.

[Victoria Watcher]

The average price of a new vehicle in Canada is $57,500.

 

ALL electric vehicles are cheaper to maintain and fuel.  And last longer.  That's "more affordable".  

 

And they polled 16,000 EV owners.   Sounds pretty clear.

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 27 March 2023 - 04:42 AM.

[Mike K.]

Owning your own house is more affordable than renting, too.

[Victoria Watcher]

Owning your own house is more affordable than renting, too.

 

I don't understand the comparison.

 

Also, luxury homes are often actually cheaper to rent than buy.

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 27 March 2023 - 04:48 AM.

[Mike K.]

Nobody likes to pay rent. Nobody likes to pay for gas.

Not paying either is a perception thing. The guy who bought a Tesla says it’s “more affordable” because he spent $80k on a car he could have purchased for $40k, but no longer pays for gas.

[Victoria Watcher]

Not paying either is a perception thing. The guy who bought a Tesla says it’s “more affordable” because he spent $80k on a car he could have purchased for $40k, but no longer pays for gas.

 

There is some of that for sure.   Charging at home you do not get a separate fuel bill.

[Mike K.]

The cost of charging isn’t a big deal. But setting up a charger is.

Have you ever talked to someone replacing Tesla tires?

[Victoria Watcher]

One pedal driving is pretty light on the tires.

[Victoria Watcher]

Officially, the tires installed at the factory on Tesla vehicles last around 30,000 miles. That said, owners have reported good tread depth well beyond 40,000 miles. The practical lifespan range of Tesla tires is 20,000 to 40,000 miles.

https://www.carshtuf...esla-tires-last

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 27 March 2023 - 05:20 AM.

[Mike K.]

Run the costs of the actual tires. The heavy weight of an EV negates whatever wear savings you get with one pedal.

The tire costs are higher than battery replacement costs over the life of the vehicle.

[Mike K.]

Now I know why that poll is making its rounds, because interest in EVs is falling. So now the messaging is that you won’t know how good an EV really is until you’re stuck paying for one (nevermind your friends with EVs disclosing the bad decisions they made).

Car companies believe it. Investors believe it. But car buyers don’t seem as sure.

UBS recently surveyed more than 10,000 consumers and found that 46% of potential car buyers would be willing to purchase an EV. That’s high enough to be encouraging for the industry, but the reading from the same survey a year ago was 49%.

The 2023 result was also the first sequential decline since 2016. Interest in EVs is waning, a little.

- https://stocks.apple...gQkeIXi37Gc0fdA

[Victoria Watcher]

Now show me the actual sales chart.

Interest rates certainly do not help higher priced cars.

A very large segment of the population is less concerned with overall price, but how much car they can get for their monthly car payment budget (most cars are sold on credit).

[Mike K.]

Why force and incentivize something people really, really want?

There is no business case for an EV for an average person concerned about costs. None.

[Victoria Watcher]

Why force and incentivize something people really, really want?
.

To speed adoption, lessen the thousands of air pollution deaths per year.

[Victoria Watcher]

esla (TSLA) deliveries in the first quarter are expected to set another record, prompting analysts to say Monday that if the global electric-vehicle giant beats estimates Tesla stock could receive a bump. But Wall Street forecasts Tesla 2023 per-share earnings shrinking compared with 2022.

https://www.investor...-eps-shrinking/

Analysts predict Tesla deliveries to total 430,000 in the first quarter, according to FactSet. This would represent a 39% increase compared to the 310,000 deliveries for the same period in 2022.

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 27 March 2023 - 07:24 AM.

[Mike K.]

When is the report due? Do they usually release stats immediately post-quarter?

[Victoria Watcher]

When is the report due? Do they usually release stats immediately post-quarter?

 

Yes, car deliveries/sales.  Much prior to their quarterly financial report.

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 27 March 2023 - 07:43 AM.