6319 replies to this topic

[Victoria Watcher]

if you do not want to mingle with crowds and you are unable to secure an upper car deck slot your best bet is to bring some very warm clothes and spend your time on the outer pedestrian deck.  coronavirus is not living overnight on those decks.

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 15 March 2020 - 08:14 AM.

[Mike K.]

Is it true that it is eradicated at 27C?

[Victoria Watcher]

well it clearly survives best right around body temperature.  both above and below that will decrease its half-life.

 

both wind and rain on the outer decks will also help remove it. 

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 15 March 2020 - 08:38 AM.

[Mike K.]

Got it.

[lanforod]

Don't believe some dude on the Internet. It is unknown (or at least unpublished), whether heat affects this particular virus. I'm inclined to believe it doesn't, give how much it spread in Iran and Egypt.

 

https://www.who.int/...ic/myth-busters

[Victoria Watcher]

of course heats affects it.  at what extremes and extent we do not know.  but i know it survives best at one ideal small range.  that's true of nearly every organism.  

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 15 March 2020 - 08:55 AM.

[lanforod]

of course heats affects it.  at what extremes and extent we do not know.  but i know it survives best at one ideal small range.  that's true of nearly every organism.  

 

Extreme heat sure; it's why we typically cook food to 165 degrees F. That's not what we are talking about here.

27 degrees Celsius; I'm far less sure until actual research is done on that. Lots of viruses survive and don't go inactive in environmental levels of heat. MERS is one - it started in Saudi Arabia and is still around, its not seasonally affected.

Summer affects virus spread due to other reasons than heat - things like people are outside more, sunlight is more prevalent (UV does kill viruses)

[Victoria Watcher]

i guess what i mean is that temperature affects it.  less survive or reproduce or thrive or whatever at the ends of its ideal temperature ranges.  and the ideal most prosperous range of a living organism is actually quite small.  especially ones that can not move on its own or have large mass like animals do to regulate their own temperature all day and night.  

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 15 March 2020 - 09:15 AM.

[Mike K.]

Indeed, UV does kill viruses.

[kxl]

well it clearly survives best right around body temperature. both above and below that will decrease its half-life.

both wind and rain on the outer decks will also help remove it.

I don’t think the concept of half-life applies to viruses, they are either “living” or “dead”.

[AllseeingEye]

Since like all forums this one is all about opinion and only rarely actual fact, in the case of the subject at hand I will always defer to medical experts. And right now its pretty obvious they don't actually know for certain what this bug will do in the presence or absence of higher temperatures.

 

With regard to this virus and temperature there are a whole lot of variables, including MAYBE and PERHAPS and POSSIBLY and WE DON'T KNOW as well as NOT PEER REVIEWED, with respect to certain medical studies conducted by actual medical experts. That includes one such study by the Harvard School of Public Health which, most people here can agree, very likely knows its s***. In their study - also still awaiting scientific review, they had this to say about "temperature":

 

“Weather alone, [such as an] increase of temperature and humidity as the spring and summer months arrive in the Northern Hemisphere, will not necessarily lead to declines in case counts without the implementation of extensive public health interventions” said the study, which was published in February and is also awaiting scientific review.

 

The executive director of the WHO's Health Emergencies Program - another guy who can likely be considered someone who actually knows a thing or two about the subject - has this to say:

 

“We have to assume the virus will continue to have the capacity to spread,” he said. “It’s a false hope to say, yes, it will disappear like the flu … we can’t make that assumption. And there is no evidence.”

 

IOW there remains a whole host of unknowns and "subject to's" with respect to COVID19 and temperatures - 

 

https://www.scmp.com...ont-bank-summer

[Victoria Watcher]

I don’t think the concept of half-life applies to viruses, they are either “living” or “dead”.

 

you can use it to describe it's level of effectiveness or "toxicity".

 

The replication cycle of influenza viruses, from the time of entry to the production of new virus, is very quick, with shedding of the first influenza viruses from infected cells occurring after only 6 hours. Infectivity of influenza virus particles depends on temperature, pH and salinity of the water and ultraviolet irradiation. At 4 °C, the half-life of infectivity is about 2–3 weeks in water, although survival under normal environmental conditions is shorter.

 

 

 

 

http://www.euro.who....human-influenza

 

remember i just became a virus expert yesterday.

[Victoria Watcher]

During the 2008 financial crisis, B.C. Ferries lost about 15 per of traffic over 15 months, Collins said.

 

With the pandemic, the company has lost 75% of passengers and lost 60% of vehicles in 15 days, he said.

“It’s incredible.

 

“We’ve got a lot of hard assets, a lot of hardware so a lot of our costs are fixed.”

 

Collins did not have details available on the financial loss but said. “Right now, our costs are considerably higher than our revenues. It’s certainly eroding our reserves.”

 

Only commercial traffic, which accounts for about 40% of business, remains strong.

 

On a recent day, Spirit of British Columbia sailed with just 240 passengers. That vessel is capable of carrying about 2,100 people.

 

 

https://www.timescol...vice-1.24107974

Edited by Victoria Watcher, 28 March 2020 - 05:24 AM.

[Mike K.]

They need to switch to a reservation system for all traffic. Why run SOVI when the Raven will suffice?

[Bernard]

Time for BC Ferries to drop to a single Coastal class ferry between Tsawwassen and Swartz Bay.   7, 11, 3, and 7 from Swartz Bay and 9, 1, 5, and 9 from Tsawwassen

[lanforod]

Perhaps. One advantage of running larger ships though is that it's easier to keep people apart on them. 

[shoeflack]

Time for BC Ferries to drop to a single Coastal class ferry between Tsawwassen and Swartz Bay.   7, 11, 3, and 7 from Swartz Bay and 9, 1, 5, and 9 from Tsawwassen

 

The early morning sailings are particularly important for truck traffic. I don't see how you could operate this route with 9:00 AM being the first sailing from Tsawwassen. Those 7:00 AM sailings are pretty critical for the movement of goods.

[Greg]

I don’t think the concept of half-life applies to viruses, they are either “living” or “dead”.

 

It does. Think of it as viral load decreasing.

[Bernard]

The early morning sailings are particularly important for truck traffic. I don't see how you could operate this route with 9:00 AM being the first sailing from Tsawwassen. Those 7:00 AM sailings are pretty critical for the movement of goods.

So you run the first ferry at 7 am from Tsawwassen.   Either way, delaying the first sailing from Swartz Bay or Tsawwassen is hardly going to make much difference.   The same should be done for Horseshoe Bay to Nanaimo

 

BC Ferries could also halt the Tsawwassen to Duke Point run given there is more than enough capacity on the other two major routes.   The demand is just not there to run as many ships.   The ferries to the smaller islands are on schedules that it would be very hard to reduce their service

[vortoozo]

BC Ferries can't halt any further sailings beyond the ones already cut until they receive approval to drop below minimum service standards.

They're working on it.

Edited by vortoozo, 30 March 2020 - 01:44 PM.